Good afternoon, everyone. The setup for the next few days continues to look interesting as a wave of low pressure develops along a strong cold front. This is something we’ve been highlighting for a week now and I can finally get a little more specific on who has the best chance to see snow on the ground.

Here are some headlines for the next few days:

  • Rain develops tonight and takes us into Monday.
  • Temps will be mild and may approach 60 on a gusty southwest wind.
  • The cold front moves from west to east Monday night and Tuesday with crashing temps behind this.
  • A wave of low pressure develops along the front, bringing a stripe of accumulating snow from Texas to New England.
  • Which part of Kentucky gets in on this depends on where this front is when the low develops. Right now, areas of eastern and southeastern Kentucky have the best chance at picking up on accumulating snows.
  • There’s the chance for several inches of snow to fall in the southeast and this could be our first THREAT level event of the season.
  • There will be a sharp cutoff on the western side of the snow. Exactly where that is remains to be seen and a few miles difference could be the difference in no snow and a few inches of snow.
  • I expect more model changes as we get closer to this system.

Here’s my initial look at the areas with the best chance of putting snow on the ground…

Again, that’s just my initial map and I assure you my thoughts will change some as we get closer. I may even get a First Call For Snowfall map out later tonight.

As far as the models are concerned, we are still seeing some subtle changes from run to run of each model. Let’s take a little look…


GFS Snowfall Map

European Model

European Model Snowfall Map


The NAM Snowfall Map appears to be on steroids..


Canadian Snowfall Map

As you can see, the models all have the same general idea, but differ on placement and amounts. That’s typical of an event. We are getting to within 48 hours, we should see the models lock in.

I will have another update later today. Until then, make it a good one and take care.