Good Sunday to one and all. Our Winter Storm THREAT continues for Christmas Night into Wednesday. I have no changes to my initial line of thinking or areas most at risk of getting in on a round of heavy snow. The entire picture will clear up a bit later today into Monday as the models hone in on the EXACT track of the initial low pressure.

The latest runs of the models have edged back eastward a bit. The GFS is the farthest west of the entire model suite with the lead low into central Kentucky. It now has no friends and that’s usuallyΒ  a bad sign for that model. The rest of the models take the first low into the Tennessee Valley toward far eastern Kentucky and West Virginia before giving way to a stronger low in the mid atlantic states.

The European Model …

Euro

The GFS Ensembles mean isn’t as far west as the Operational GFS, but it’s farther west than the other models…

GFS

The Canadian Model transfers the energy to the primary low much quicker and offers up a much colder and snowier scenario for many…

Canadian

The UKMET is very similar…

UKMET

The exact track of the lead low will determine who gets in on the heaviest snow and who gets rain to end as snow with only a light accumulation. My initial threat map remains unchanged for now…

Special

I will adjust as needed later today with updates. Lost in the shuffle of all this is the fact this will be another very windy storm. Gusts may reach 40mph at times on Wednesday.

Just think… we get to do this all over again by Friday and Saturday as the next storm approaches. πŸ™‚

Make it a great Sunday and take care.