Time posted: 2:26 pm

Monday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. Heavy rain continues to work across the state and will soon be replaced by frosty cold temperatures. The numbers drop big time over the next few mornings, bringing a hard frost and light freeze to the region. Then comes another system and cold blast for the weekend.

Many areas have picked up 1″-2″ of rain since Sunday, with locally higher amounts. The rains will slowly move away this afternoon and evening…

The air behind this is downright cold and will take parts of the state deep into the 30s tonight…

Another weak front drops in on Wednesday, but has no precipitation to work with. That will bring even colder air in here for Thursday morning as temps drop into the upper 20s and low 30s. These numbers will effectively end the growing season…

This takes us to the weekend and another system moving in, unleashing even colder air into early next week. Rain is likely Friday into Saturday with the air behind this trying to produce a few Ohio Valley snowflakes…

Temps behind that will likely drop into the 20s for lows, bringing a freeze to much of the region.

Once again… Watch the final week of the month for a major amplification across the eastern half of the country.

Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.

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Time posted: 1:52 am

A Frosty Cold Week Begins With Rain

Good Monday, everyone. Our new week is off and running on a very wet note with rounds of showers and a few storms targeting the Commonwealth. Frosty cold air will follow this action into the middle of the week, with a little more interesting look taking shape by the weekend.

I’ve also got a couple of season models that show an interesting setup for the upcoming winter. We will get to that in a bit, but let’s begin with where we are now.

A boundary is stalled across the state, with a wave of low pressure running along it. This is bringing locally heavy rains our way. We are also seeing a big temperate gradient with the southeast being much warmer than everyone else. Here are your tracking toys for the day…

Chilly surges in behind the rain as it moves out later tonight and early Tuesday morning as temps drop deep into the 30s for areas where skies clear…

Mid and upper 30s show back up on Wednesday, but Thursday morning may bring a killing frost or light freeze our way. Readings could hit the freezing mark or a little below…

From there, it’s all eyes on another big blast of cold moving in for the weekend and early next week. This may be introduced by a potent storm system working across the region Friday and Saturday…

That’s a lot of cold coming in behind that system and it may be enough to produce some Ohio Valley snowflakes. Temps may head deep into the 20s for lows.

I’m continuing to point toward the final week of October for the first storm signal of the cold season showing up across the eastern half of the country. Some of the medium range models are beginning to sniff something out…

Winter is fast approaching and I’ve been busy doing my annual homework for the winter forecast. I also like to check out the seasonal models to see what they are saying. The Japanese Model has had a good run this year, so It certainly has a hot hand.

The new seasonal run for December through February shows a lot of blocking in areas where you want to see it for cold weather in our region. Check out the deep trough it has across much of the country for the winter…

That’s showing 500mb height anomalies and not temp anomalies.

The UKMET seasonal model does things a little differently. It breaks things down by percentages. It has a low chance for above normal temps, with a much greater chance for below normal temps…

Given those percentages, you can see how the model anticipates a setup similar to what the Japanese is showing. If those are right… Giddy up!

I may throw you another update later today. Until then, make it a great Monday and take care.

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Time posted: 3:42 pm

Sunday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. It’s a rainy day across Kentucky and we have a lot more rain to go through into the start of the new week. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on how the rest of the week unfolds as cold shots take aim at the region.

Rain ends Monday night and early Tuesday as chilly air continues. Frosty mornings a likely Wednesday and Thursday mornings as temps can make a run at the freezing mark.

The setup for next weekend has an interesting look to it with a system ejecting out of the southwest and a major blast of cold air diving in from the northwest…

That’s another healthy shot of rain with the GFS following it up with the first chance for some flakes…

Obviously, the chance for flakes are always low for this time of year, but it’s happened many times before, including multiple times this decade. We shall see about that.

The cold associated with that system is impressive, with the numbers sliding into the 20s for lows…

The last week of the month appears to be just itching for a major amplification, allowing for some big time cold to enter the country…

In the meantime, I have you all set to track the rainy rest of your Sunday…

Have a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:06 am

Wet Weather Returns

Good Sunday, folks. It’s another wet weather maker rolling back into the bluegrass state and it has a tropical connection. This rain is from what’s left of Hurricane Sergio from the Pacific Ocean. As this passes through, another rain maker follows it up to star the week ahead that will also feature frosty cold mornings.

Let’s begin with the setup of today and roll forward. Numerous showers continue to push across the state from southwest to northeast. Locally heavy downpours are possible and I can’t rule out a little rumble of thunder…

The setup for Monday will feature a slow-moving front draped across the region with a wave of low pressure along it. The end result will be chilly rains north of the boundary with a few storms south of it…

That same setup later in November or December would be a big snow and ice maker across this region. Even though it’s only the middle of October, it’s still producing early season snows way far south in the plains states…

Once leftover showers move way on Tuesday, the first hard frost of the season is waiting in the wings for Wednesday and/or Thursday mornings. Below freezing temps are possible for lows…

Another big system will then roll our way by next weekend, bringing an increase in rain and the potential for Ohio Valley flakes behind it…

Even colder air follows that one up, with a likely visit from Mr. Freeze…

This is some cold stuff showing up  on the Ensembles…

The pattern is ripe for a MAJOR amplification and storm system for the final week of October.

I may throw you another update later today. On Monday, I have some new winter models to throw your way. B to the RR 😉

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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Time posted: 1:47 am

Rounds Of Rain On The Way

Good Saturday, folks. As a Friday night shower maker quickly clears the area early this morning, our Saturday is looking pretty darn nice. Unfortunately, that’s not going to last very long because rounds of rain are on the way for the next few days. Heavy rainfall is once again a good likelihood.

Let us begin with today and roll forward. Showers should be to our east before sun up, with temps dropping into the middle 30s where skies clear. Another kiss of frost is likely, giving us back to back mornings with frost.

Clouds will increase from southwest to northeast later today as temps stay in the 50s. There’s even the chance for a little residual cloud cover for much of the day for some, If that’s the case, take the under on the numbers.

What’s left of Pacific Hurricane Sergio is crossing out of Mexico and into Texas early today, with the hurricane models still picking up on the remnant low, bringing it toward us later Sunday…

That’s just amazing to see a remnant tropical low move that quickly (or at any speed) from the Pacific to Kentucky. Folks, these are strange weather times we are living in.

This system brings a surge of rain in here tonight and Sunday, with waves of heavy rain continuing through Monday…

As that system departs, it leaves behind some pretty nice fall weather for later Tuesday through Thursday. Frosty mornings are likely for both Wednesday and Thursday, but the afternoons look really good with below normal temps.

Another system works in from the southwest as we head into next weekend. That will help unleash an even colder air mass…

That cold shot could very well put an official end to the growing season.

The longer range ensembles continue to try to spit out some flakes across our region before the month is over…

We will see how that works out, but it’s interesting to see various runs from different models hinting at that possibility.

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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