{"id":15212,"date":"2015-08-16T01:15:57","date_gmt":"2015-08-16T05:15:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?p=15212"},"modified":"2015-08-16T12:15:00","modified_gmt":"2015-08-16T16:15:00","slug":"storms-take-center-stage","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?p=15212","title":{"rendered":"Storms Take Center Stage"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good Sunday to one and all. Showers and thunderstorms are getting ready to take on a starring role in our weather over the next week, at least. This happens as another fall cold front makes a run at the bluegrass state by the middle of the week. Yep… it’s getting active again.<\/p>\n

Highs today will run in the middle 80s for many with some upper 80s showing up. A scattered shower or thunderstorm will also be possible.<\/p>\n

Storm chances increase on Monday as a nice moisture supply increases from the Gulf of Mexico…<\/p>\n

\"NAM\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Heavy rainfall is possible with this flow. That trend continues into Tuesday as we await the arrival of our next fall cold front. This looks like a pretty potent system coming out of the plains and into the Great Lakes. That drags the front in here on Wednesday with the potential for some decent storms going up.<\/p>\n

GFS<\/p>\n

\"GFS\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The Canadian Model is even more pronounced with this system, but slows it down across the region on Thursday with a wave of low pressure developing…<\/p>\n

\"Canadian\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Cooler than normal air comes in behind that front and likely hangs around into, at least, early next weekend. Another front will likely move in here for the following week. Active!<\/p>\n

Last weekend, I went in depth on the developing El Nino and the potential implications for the fall and winter ahead. I’ve talked about how this would become a behemoth of an El Nino for\u00a0past\u00a0few months. Now, NOAA releases a statement on how strong this thing is and the whole weather world flips out.<\/p>\n

I’m not going to\u00a0rehash my thoughts on how different this is from any prior El Nino on record.\u00a0But I will offer additional support\u00a0to back up that the\u00a0warmest\u00a0anomalies in the Pacific will not be along the coast of South America ala the big El Ninos of 1997 and 1982. The latest from the JAMSTEC…<\/p>\n

\"JMA<\/a><\/p>\n

You will also notice\u00a0all the warm water along the west coast\u00a0and into the Gulf\u00a0of Alaska. That’s been there since\u00a02013 and has been, in my eyes, the driving force\u00a0of the pattern since then. How will that warm water\u00a0and El Nino get along?<\/p>\n

The JAMSTEC fall and winter temperature forecasts continue to indicate colder than normal temps around here…<\/p>\n

\"JMA<\/a><\/p>\n

The model then carries that colder than normal setup through next spring. Sound familiar?<\/p>\n

The latest seasonal model from NASA also has a cold look. Fall…<\/p>\n

\"NASA\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Winter…<\/p>\n

\"NASA<\/a><\/p>\n

Again, those are just seasonal computer models and should be treated with a fair amount of skepticism. The interesting thing is, they all continue to generally point toward a similar setup. LOTS of factors between now and the winter will determine how things play out. There is no true analog to the placement, depth and timing of this monster of an El Nino and overall Pacific setup.<\/p>\n

I leave you with some Sunday tracking toys…<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Have a great day and take care.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Good Sunday to one and all. Showers and thunderstorms are getting ready to take on a starring role in our weather over the next week, at least. This happens as another fall cold front makes a run at the bluegrass state by the middle of the week. Yep… it’s getting active again. Highs today will […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15212","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","et-doesnt-have-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15212","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15212"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15212\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15212"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15212"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15212"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}