{"id":15819,"date":"2015-10-18T01:53:04","date_gmt":"2015-10-18T05:53:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?p=15819"},"modified":"2015-10-18T01:53:04","modified_gmt":"2015-10-18T05:53:04","slug":"looking-down-the-weather-road","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?p=15819","title":{"rendered":"Looking Down The Weather Road"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good Sunday, everyone. The growing season is now a thing of the past, but some milder weather is on the way for the week ahead. That means more of the good stuff is ahead of us, but bigger changes are showing up in the not too distant future. I’ll take a look at that and much father into the future via some winter computer model forecasts.<\/p>\n

In the short-term, today starts in the 20s and ends with upper 50s in the east and low 60s west. Skies stay mainly clear.<\/p>\n

The week ahead will feature some very nice fall weather across the state…<\/p>\n

\"NAM\"<\/a>What happens beyond this week will be dictated by what’s going on in the tropics. A late season tropical surge of activity is likely in the Gulf and Atlantic over the next few weeks. Check out just how busy this map is by early next weekend…<\/p>\n

\"GFS\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Odds still favor a cold front dropping our way by the weekend and trying to pick up something from the Gulf. The Canadian Model continues to show just that…<\/p>\n

\"Canadian\"<\/a>Again, details and trends will be ironed out as we get closer. But, there’s some potential wild showing up in the pattern as we close out the final week of October.<\/p>\n

I wanted to quickly show you a few of the latest winter forecasts from some seasonal computer models. Several of them continue to\u00a0feature an overall colder look across our region…<\/p>\n

\"Seasonal<\/a>Notice how those have a very similar look with where they place the coldest anomalies… right across our region and into the southern part of the country.<\/p>\n

The above models look very much like other seasonal models that have a pretty good track record… The European, UKMET, JMA and JAMSTEC. Here’s the JAMSTEC I posted a few days ago…<\/p>\n

\"JMA<\/a><\/p>\n

So,\u00a0why are some weather circles basically cancelling winter, already? (They do this every single year, BTW)\u00a0\u00a0Because they look at the home grown, and very poor, American model known as the CFS. That is one of only two seasonal models showing widespread warmer than normal winter temps…<\/p>\n

\"Seasonal<\/a>While anything is possible, I wouldn’t be betting the farm on those two models! Those who are using them as the basis for a seasonal forecast, give the entire weather community a very bad name. For many, actually forecasting the weather is just too dang hard. \ud83d\ude09<\/p>\n

If you’re sensing some spunk from your friendly weatherdude of late, you’re right. Weather “reporters” and storm chaser wannabes are trying to take over the field I’ve studied since I was a child. Me and my fellow forecasters won’t go down without a nerd fight! \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n

Make it a great Sunday and take care.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Good Sunday, everyone. The growing season is now a thing of the past, but some milder weather is on the way for the week ahead. That means more of the good stuff is ahead of us, but bigger changes are showing up in the not too distant future. I’ll take a look at that and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15819","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","et-doesnt-have-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15819","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15819"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15819\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15819"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15819"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15819"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}