{"id":17571,"date":"2016-01-31T19:00:33","date_gmt":"2016-02-01T00:00:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?p=17571"},"modified":"2016-01-31T19:00:33","modified_gmt":"2016-02-01T00:00:33","slug":"sunday-evening-update-28","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?p=17571","title":{"rendered":"Sunday Evening Update"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Good evening, everyone. We have a busy few weeks of weather ahead of us, and it all starts with the possibility of strong or severe thunderstorms for Groundhog Day Tuesday. From there, it&#8217;s all about the potential for harsh winter weather.<\/p>\n<p>I really have no changes on the overall progression of the severe weather potential for Tuesday. The Storm Prediction Center has much of the state in the risk area&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/SPC2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-17572\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/SPC2.png\" alt=\"SPC\" width=\"827\" height=\"489\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/SPC2.png 827w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/SPC2-300x177.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 827px) 100vw, 827px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>In looking at the latest data, I&#8217;m wondering if that shouldn&#8217;t be moved a little farther east. A line of thunderstorms will explode Tuesday afternoon into the evening and race eastward across our region. Damaging winds continue to be the primary player, with isolated tornadoes also a threat.<\/p>\n<p>Colder temps slide in for the rest of the week with the potential for a harsh winter pattern to take over from there. A system will dig in over the weekend and could bring arctic air and some snow. You can see the big trough showing up on the GFS by Sunday&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/GFS41.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-17570\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/GFS41.png\" alt=\"GFS\" width=\"559\" height=\"453\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/GFS41.png 559w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/GFS41-300x243.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 559px) 100vw, 559px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Notice the two spots I&#8217;ve marked with an X diving in behind that trough. This is the setup I&#8217;ve been saying we need to watch for in the February 7-11 time frame. The weather pattern across North America is skewed toward the extreme. That point is hard to argue given the record warm December followed by a record snowstorm and the upcoming severe weather threat.<\/p>\n<p>The early morning run from the GFS shows a very extreme winter weather solution. Watch how those two pieces of energy merge into a monster&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/GFS-231.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-17573\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/GFS-231.png\" alt=\"GFS 2\" width=\"1124\" height=\"900\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/GFS-231.png 1124w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/GFS-231-300x240.png 300w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/GFS-231-1024x820.png 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1124px) 100vw, 1124px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the surface from that particular run&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/GFS-313.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-17568\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/GFS-313.png\" alt=\"GFS 3\" width=\"1010\" height=\"1005\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/GFS-313.png 1010w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/GFS-313-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/GFS-313-300x300.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1010px) 100vw, 1010px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Granted, I am showing the most extreme solution from the GFS. Other runs have not been nearly as extreme, but it isn&#8217;t like that option is totally crazy given the signal showing up.<\/p>\n<p>Do other models have the same signal? Yep.<\/p>\n<p>The European Model&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/Euro38.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-17567\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/Euro38.png\" alt=\"Euro\" width=\"556\" height=\"901\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/Euro38.png 556w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/Euro38-185x300.png 185w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 556px) 100vw, 556px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The Canadian Model&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/Canadian35.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-17566\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/Canadian35.png\" alt=\"Canadian\" width=\"1124\" height=\"449\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/Canadian35.png 1124w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/Canadian35-300x120.png 300w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/Canadian35-1024x409.png 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1124px) 100vw, 1124px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/Canadian-226.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-17565\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/Canadian-226.png\" alt=\"Canadian 2\" width=\"621\" height=\"448\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/Canadian-226.png 621w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/Canadian-226-300x216.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 621px) 100vw, 621px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Now, we&#8217;re talking about a signal from the models that&#8217;s a little over a week away. Don&#8217;t take any one model solution or setup and run with it. That&#8217;s why I keep focusing more on the 500mb plots&#8230; That&#8217;s much more valuable in picking up on something from this far out than looking at surface maps. I included a few just to illustrate what the models are seeing.<\/p>\n<p>All of this may turn out to be nothing, but the force is strong with that setup from more than a week away.<\/p>\n<p>I leave you with your tracking toys for tonight&#8217;s shower(maybe thunder?) action&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"http:\/\/builder.zoomradar.net\/zoomradar_weather_map\/weather_page.php?key=dlFZs5IY4VCw7bK\" width=\"560\" height=\"450\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" seamless=\"seamless\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/sirocco.accuweather.com\/nx_mosaic_640x480_public\/sir\/inmaSIRKY_.gif\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;ll see you tonight for the full update. Enjoy the evening and take care.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Good evening, everyone. We have a busy few weeks of weather ahead of us, and it all starts with the possibility of strong or severe thunderstorms for Groundhog Day Tuesday. From there, it&#8217;s all about the potential for harsh winter weather. I really have no changes on the overall progression of the severe weather potential [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17571","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","et-doesnt-have-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17571","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=17571"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17571\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=17571"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=17571"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=17571"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}