{"id":17842,"date":"2016-02-12T12:24:51","date_gmt":"2016-02-12T17:24:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?p=17842"},"modified":"2016-02-12T12:24:51","modified_gmt":"2016-02-12T17:24:51","slug":"friday-midday-update-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?p=17842","title":{"rendered":"Friday Midday Update"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good afternoon, everyone. It’s full steam ahead toward a harsh weekend of winter weather across our part of the world. Snow showers, below zero wind chills and the potential for more snow and a winter storm highlight the forecast.<\/p>\n

This morning’s snow in the south is winding down. Now we wait on snow showers and a few squalls to kick in from the northwest as arctic air floods in…<\/p>\n

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Light accumulations will be possible this evening into tonight. Winds are going to crank as temps drop to around 10 degrees. Wind chills drop to 0 to-10 by morning. Highs stay in the teens for many on Saturday.<\/p>\n

Snow breaks out quickly from west to east by midday Sunday…<\/p>\n

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We have one system diving in from the northwest with another storm developing across Texas. How these two decide to play together may wind up being the big determining factor on just how much snow we get from this point on. Initially, they combine to throw a shield of decent snow across the entire state into Sunday night…<\/p>\n

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The NAM keeps the northern stream system a little stronger and that keeps our main storm just a littler farther to the south and east by late Monday…<\/p>\n

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Even with that scenario, the NAM puts down some nice snow totals…<\/p>\n

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t actually has a wide swath of 3″-6″ across the region with locally higher totals in the southeast.<\/p>\n

The GFS has the same snows Sunday into Sunday night and also wraps up the main storm just to our east by late Monday…<\/p>\n

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Snowfall through Monday from the GFS…<\/p>\n

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The usual model bias from the GFS is to be too far east in a setup like this. That doesn’t mean it will correct westward, but we have seen this happen NUMEROUS times in the past.<\/p>\n

The Canadian snowfall map looks similar to what it was showing last night…<\/p>\n

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It has quite a bit of snow across our region, but looks too disjointed for my taste.<\/p>\n

Here’s my take… I want to see what the European Model does this afternoon and then I want to see what tonight’s 0z runs do. This will get us within the 48 hour window when true trends usually lock in. I’ve seen similar scenarios to this one wait until within 24 hours to show these true trends. This actually reminds me some of the storms we had several years ago… The ones that had us in the snow sweet spot until the day before and then putting that to our north and west some. Well, we aren’t in the model “sweet spot” right now… that’s just to our east and south.<\/p>\n

It’s going to snow and the entire region will have snow on the ground Sunday into Sunday night… a few inches to several inches. Can we get this storm to come together in a fashion to take this thing to another level? That is still a possibility and one we have to be mindful of.<\/p>\n

I will try to update this evening, but I’m emceeing Father Daughter date night at UK Gymnastics. Who am I kidding? I’ll find a way to do both. \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n

I leave you with your tracking toys…<\/p>\n

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