{"id":17856,"date":"2016-02-13T02:45:58","date_gmt":"2016-02-13T07:45:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?p=17856"},"modified":"2016-02-13T02:45:58","modified_gmt":"2016-02-13T07:45:58","slug":"winter-storm-threat-sunday-and-monday","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?p=17856","title":{"rendered":"Winter Storm THREAT Sunday and Monday"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good Saturday, everyone. I’ve decided to upgrade to a Winter Storm THREAT for late Sunday into Monday. This is for the potential for\u00a0four or more inches of snow falling across parts of our region. If my confidence increases, we will upgrade to Alert status. If it goes the other way, the threat will do the same.<\/p>\n

Let me be clear off the bat that I do NOT expect this to turn out anything like our recent winter storm, or any of the storms from last winter. All Winter Storm Threats are not equal. \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n

The overall setup of the Sunday through Sunday night part of this storm continues to be similar to what I have been describing of late. Snow develops from west to east Valentine’s Day afternoon and evening. The latest models are fairly impressed with the snows. Here’s the NAM…<\/p>\n

\"NAMThat run of the NAM even shows the potential for thundersnow in Lexington Sunday evening…<\/p>\n

\"NAM<\/a><\/p>\n

Here’s the NAM snowfall forecast by Monday morning…<\/p>\n

\"NAM\"Again, that’s JUST\u00a0a model forecast.<\/p>\n

The NAM goes on to keep the Monday storm system across central and eastern Kentucky. By this time, it shows more of a mix of precipitation that tries to be just snow in the heavier band…<\/p>\n

\"NAMThat then adds to the totals across the eastern half of the state…<\/p>\n

\"NAM<\/a><\/p>\n

Again, that is JUST\u00a0a model forecast.<\/p>\n

The European Model holds steady with what it has been showing for the past few days…<\/p>\n

\"Euro\"<\/a><\/p>\n

That’s a healthy swath of snow statewide Sunday into Sunday night with 4″ or more for many. The model does bring a mix into the equation on Monday before going back over to snow before ending Monday night.<\/p>\n

Snowfall from the model…<\/p>\n

\"Euro<\/a><\/p>\n

The GFS handles the Monday system totally different with each run. That makes it very hard to use, but it does have the Sunday afternoon and night snowfall…<\/p>\n

\"GFS\"<\/a><\/p>\n

I will have updates later today and get some new snowfall forecasts out. Some tracking tools until then…<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n