{"id":17905,"date":"2016-02-15T02:14:31","date_gmt":"2016-02-15T07:14:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?p=17905"},"modified":"2016-02-15T02:14:31","modified_gmt":"2016-02-15T07:14:31","slug":"another-very-busy-weather-day","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?p=17905","title":{"rendered":"Another Very Busy Weather Day"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good Monday, everyone. The first phase of this winter storm dumped a healthy snowfall across the entire state. Anywhere from 2″-8″ fell across the Commonwealth, creating snow packed roads. Now comes the second part of the storm and it’s the one I’ve been trying to figure out for a while. To some extent… I still am.<\/p>\n

This is a rather complicated setup with temps rising to freezing or a little above. This happens as a stout low pressure cranks across the Tennessee Valley and works toward the Appalachian Mountains. Here’s a breakdown of what today may hold:<\/p>\n

– Our day starts with a mix of snow, rain and freezing drizzle. Roads are going to continue to be awful, so please stay safe out there.<\/p>\n

– Temps SHOULD go above freezing for most areas this afternoon with mainly rain falling. Even with temps above freezing, the ground is frozen, so some ice may still develop. My confidence level starts to get shaky at this point.<\/p>\n

– As our low pressure cranks out heavy precipitation late today into this evening, dynamic cooling takes place. That basically drops the temperatures and can allow for snow to take over. I’ve seen situations like this result in some very hefty totals in a narrow corridor.<\/p>\n

– If that corridor does indeed setup… where does it form? The European Model from WeatherBELL shows that setting up across central Kentucky…<\/p>\n

\"Euro\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The European Model has been steadfast in this development, but differs from run to run on where it occurs. The European Model and the NAM nailed our Valentine’s snowstorm, and are very similar with the current part of the storm. Watch how the Hi-Res NAM switches the heavy rain shield to snow on the western side…<\/p>\n

\"NAM<\/a><\/p>\n

You can actually see blue on those first three panels. That indicates a very fine line we’re walking between cold rain and just going over to all snow quicker than it would indicate. You can clearly see how the snow shield eventually takes over on the west side. The NAM is just a bit east of the European Model with that…<\/p>\n

\"NAM\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The job for me today is to watch the trends and see if that band will indeed set up, and then figuring out where it sets up. If it does… some areas could get smacked down by a band of heavy, wet snow.<\/p>\n

The other threat today comes from heavy rain and possible flooding. The NAM shows a lot of precipitation across southern and eastern Kentucky…<\/p>\n

\"NAM<\/a><\/p>\n

Did I mention this is going to be a super-duper active weather day?<\/p>\n

Another system dives in here late Tuesday and could bring snow and rain. Here’s how the Hi-Res NAM sees it…<\/p>\n

\"NAM<\/a><\/p>\n

That could keep flurries going into early Wednesday. By the way, that would make it 10 consecutive days with snow flying somewhere across the state.<\/p>\n

If you’re looking signs of an early spring, I have some good news and some bad news. The good news comes late in the week into the weekend as temps may hit 60 for many areas. The bad news… it doesn’t last very long. A few days later, the pattern goes back to a big ridge along the west coast with a trough in the east…<\/p>\n

\"Euro<\/a><\/p>\n

Moral of the story… we likely have a few more snowfalls left in the winter tank into early March. \ud83d\ude41<\/p>\n

I will update today’s wild weather around noon. Until then, it’s another dose of your favorite weather tracking toys…<\/p>\n

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