{"id":19923,"date":"2016-09-14T02:30:41","date_gmt":"2016-09-14T06:30:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?p=19923"},"modified":"2016-09-14T02:30:41","modified_gmt":"2016-09-14T06:30:41","slug":"fun-with-seasonal-models","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?p=19923","title":{"rendered":"Fun With Seasonal Models"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Good Wednesday, everybody. We have a weak cold front bringing scattered showers and storms to the region today. This is the first of two fronts set to bring some rainfall our way over the next several days. We will briefly touch on that, and also look longer range toward some interesting CFS Model runs for the next month or so.<\/p>\n<p>This is a blowout post, so get ready.<\/p>\n<p>Today&#8217;s front will bring a scattered shower or storm our way, but it&#8217;s nothing to get overly excited about&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"http:\/\/builder.zoomradar.net\/zoomradar_weather_map\/weather_page.php?key=9nNfA2mOMDiJ4LG\" width=\"560\" height=\"462\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" seamless=\"seamless\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/sirocco.accuweather.com\/nx_mosaic_640x480_public\/sir\/inmaSIRKY_.gif\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p>That front actually may slide just to our south on Thursday, allowing slightly cooler and drier air back in here. The threat for scattered storms increases into the weekend as another front works into the region. I suspect a lot of what happens then may be dictated on what happens off the southeastern coast.<\/p>\n<p>Days ago, I detailed the potential for something tropical developing there, and we are now watching Tropical Storm Juia&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.goes.noaa.gov\/GIFS\/ECSTIR.JPG\" \/><\/p>\n<p>I love when a weather plan comes together. \ud83d\ude42\u00a0 That may hug the coast all the way to the Carolinas.<\/p>\n<p>For a while now, we have been noticing the operational models signaling some massive cold blasts into the country in the extended forecast period. These haven&#8217;t been showing up as modeled, but many times it&#8217;s just the models signaling what they are seeing farther down the road. They sometimes just get overly excited and jump the gun.<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s interesting to note the CFS is now seeing a much colder (relation to normal)\u00a0setup taking shape in the coming weeks. Let me preface this by saying it&#8217;s a seasonal model that should always be taken with a shovel full of salt. \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<p>Weeks One and Two&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?attachment_id=19918\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-19918\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-19918\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/CFS-1.png\" alt=\"cfs\" width=\"622\" height=\"897\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/CFS-1.png 622w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/CFS-1-208x300.png 208w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 622px) 100vw, 622px\" \/><\/a>Weeks Three and Four show the switch to colder&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?attachment_id=19919\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-19919\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-19919\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/CFS-2-1.png\" alt=\"cfs-2\" width=\"616\" height=\"922\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/CFS-2-1.png 616w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/CFS-2-1-200x300.png 200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 616px) 100vw, 616px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>I started looking deeper into the recent runs of the CFS through October and they are showing a very blocky looking pattern developing. For fun I pulled up the recent WeatherBell CFS snow forecasts for the next 45 days. The latest run&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?attachment_id=19921\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-19921\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-19921\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/CFS-4.png\" alt=\"cfs-4\" width=\"768\" height=\"615\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/CFS-4.png 768w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/CFS-4-300x240.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The run before that&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?attachment_id=19922\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-19922\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-19922\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/CFS-5.png\" alt=\"cfs-5\" width=\"768\" height=\"615\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/CFS-5.png 768w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/CFS-5-300x240.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>And the run before that&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?attachment_id=19926\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-19926\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-19926\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/CFS-7.png\" alt=\"cfs-7\" width=\"768\" height=\"615\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/CFS-7.png 768w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/CFS-7-300x240.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Again, this is all for fun in looking at those models, but I have never seen them showing anything like that before Halloween.<\/p>\n<p>Looking into the winter forecast from the same model, we still find the big warm pool of water in the Gulf of Alaska&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?attachment_id=19920\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-19920\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-19920\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/CFS-3.png\" alt=\"cfs-3\" width=\"380\" height=\"322\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/CFS-3.png 380w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/CFS-3-300x254.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 380px) 100vw, 380px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>That warm water was there in the historic winters of 2013\/14 and 2014\/15. I said back then, the warm pool was driving the overall winter pattern. Last year it was muted by the Super El Nino. This year we only\u00a0have a weak La Nina or Neutral signal showing up. Hmmm<\/p>\n<p>Have a great day and take care.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Good Wednesday, everybody. We have a weak cold front bringing scattered showers and storms to the region today. This is the first of two fronts set to bring some rainfall our way over the next several days. We will briefly touch on that, and also look longer range toward some interesting CFS Model runs for [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19923","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","et-doesnt-have-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19923","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=19923"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19923\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=19923"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=19923"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=19923"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}