{"id":20365,"date":"2016-10-29T02:01:30","date_gmt":"2016-10-29T06:01:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?p=20365"},"modified":"2016-10-29T02:01:30","modified_gmt":"2016-10-29T06:01:30","slug":"a-few-small-changes-before-the-bigger-changes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?p=20365","title":{"rendered":"A Few Small Changes Before The Bigger Changes"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good Saturday and welcome to Halloween weekend. Temperatures over the next several days will be about as warm as you can get for this time of year. A few record highs may fall at some point along the way. Once past that t, the pattern transitions toward a fast start to winter. Maybe one extreme to the other?<\/p>\n

The only issue this weekend could come on Sunday with a shower or two trying to pop. The best chance for that happening is across the north and east during the afternoon and evening…<\/p>\n

\"nam\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The models are back to pushing this front into the region, delivering a drop in temps for Halloween. Check out the temperature spread for highs…<\/p>\n

\"gfs-temps\"<\/a><\/p>\n

That shows low 80s in the far southwest to upper 50s in the far northeast.<\/p>\n

A cold front approaches the region on Thursday, with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Several models show something trying to cut off on top of the region into Friday…<\/p>\n

\"euro\"<\/a><\/p>\n

That is certainly a MUCH cooler look from Thursday into Friday, and could even bring some 50s back in here for highs.<\/p>\n

I have ZERO changes to the changes I think are coming. This is something I have been yapping about for weeks, and will continue to do so.\u00a0 This pattern is going to begin to flip colder starting in the second week of November, but not fully kick in until the second half of the month and likely lasting through December.<\/p>\n

Every run of the GFS Ensembles show this evolution well\u00a0for the second week of the November…<\/p>\n

\"gfs-gif-2\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"gfs-gif\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Even the operational GFS is beginning to hone in on the mid-month\u00a0change…<\/p>\n

\"gfs\"<\/a><\/p>\n

For fun, If we want to look at the snow aspect from the seasonal models, we find some interesting looking data through the first 10 days or so of December. Here’s the CFS…<\/p>\n

\"cfs\"<\/a><\/p>\n

A different seasonal model through the same time…<\/p>\n

\"cfs-2\"<\/a>

WeatherBELL<\/p><\/div>\n

The above is a smoothed average of approximately 50 individual ensembles runs.<\/p>\n

As with all things weather, time will tell, but the look of the pattern suggests holiday season winter weather lovers may be happy campers.<\/p>\n

Have a great day and take care.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Good Saturday and welcome to Halloween weekend. Temperatures over the next several days will be about as warm as you can get for this time of year. A few record highs may fall at some point along the way. Once past that t, the pattern transitions toward a fast start to winter. Maybe one extreme […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20365","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","et-doesnt-have-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20365","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=20365"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20365\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=20365"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=20365"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=20365"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}