{"id":20384,"date":"2016-10-30T01:02:03","date_gmt":"2016-10-30T05:02:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?p=20384"},"modified":"2016-10-30T01:02:03","modified_gmt":"2016-10-30T05:02:03","slug":"tracking-a-weak-cold-front-and-talking-november","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?p=20384","title":{"rendered":"Tracking A Weak Cold Front And Talking November"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Good Sunday to one and all. We continue to be in a mainly warm and windy pattern for the next several days, but\u00a0a cold front crashes the summer party later today. It&#8217;s provides us with a brief break from the warm weather that returns for early November. After that, things continue to evolve toward a possible earlier than normal start to winter, and the models are picking up on that.<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s a fairly calm early day, but I have a blowout post ready for you guys.<\/p>\n<p>A weak cold front drops in later this afternoon into the evening with a broken band of showers and thunderstorms. The best chance is across central and eastern Kentucky, where winds will be very gusty&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"http:\/\/builder.zoomradar.net\/zoomradar_weather_map\/weather_page.php?key=9nNfA2mOMDiJ4LG\" width=\"560\" height=\"462\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" seamless=\"seamless\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/sirocco.accuweather.com\/nx_mosaic_640x480_public\/sir\/inmaSIRKY_.gif\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p>This continues to set the stage for some slightly cooler air for Halloween. Temps may not get out of the 60s for some areas for afternoon highs. The hi-res NAM even shows upper 50s in the far north and northeast&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?attachment_id=20379\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-20379\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-20379\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/NAM-7.png\" alt=\"nam\" width=\"576\" height=\"317\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/NAM-7.png 576w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/NAM-7-300x165.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 576px) 100vw, 576px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The warm air surges back in for Tuesday and Wednesday with upper 70s to low 80s. Record highs may fall.<\/p>\n<p>A potent little cold front swings in here on Thursday with scattered showers, gusty winds and much cooler temperatures&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?attachment_id=20387\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-20387\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-20387\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/GFS-26.png\" alt=\"gfs\" width=\"705\" height=\"359\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/GFS-26.png 705w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/GFS-26-300x153.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 705px) 100vw, 705px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The European Model continues to keep a some energy across our region, with showers into early Friday&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?attachment_id=20375\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-20375\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-20375\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/Euro-16.png\" alt=\"euro\" width=\"713\" height=\"734\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/Euro-16.png 713w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/Euro-16-291x300.png 291w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 713px) 100vw, 713px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Either solution will keep temps in the &#8220;near normal&#8221; category.<\/p>\n<p>The numbers will bounce back up some next weekend into early the following week. That&#8217;s the second week of November, and is the week I&#8217;ve been pointing to as seeing the first shot of change. The models are now seeing this. Here&#8217;s the European for Election Day&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?attachment_id=20385\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-20385\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-20385\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/Euro-2-8.png\" alt=\"euro-2\" width=\"395\" height=\"361\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/Euro-2-8.png 395w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/Euro-2-8-300x274.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 395px) 100vw, 395px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s as far out as the model goes, but you can clearly see the cold air diving in here.<\/p>\n<p>The GFS goes out a little farther and here&#8217;s what it shows for late Election Day into the following day&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?attachment_id=20383\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-20383\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-20383\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/GFS-25.png\" alt=\"gfs\" width=\"787\" height=\"839\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/GFS-25.png 787w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/GFS-25-281x300.png 281w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/GFS-25-768x819.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 787px) 100vw, 787px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Check out what the model shows by the weekend of November 12&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?attachment_id=20380\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-20380\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-20380\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/GFS-2-16.png\" alt=\"gfs-2\" width=\"829\" height=\"472\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/GFS-2-16.png 829w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/GFS-2-16-300x171.png 300w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/GFS-2-16-768x437.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 829px) 100vw, 829px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the precipitation type for those two systems&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?attachment_id=20382\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-20382\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-20382\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/GFS-4.gif\" alt=\"gfs\" width=\"1024\" height=\"696\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>And the snowfall map from that same run&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?attachment_id=20381\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-20381\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-20381\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/GFS-Snow.png\" alt=\"gfs-snow\" width=\"773\" height=\"595\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/GFS-Snow.png 773w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/GFS-Snow-300x231.png 300w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/GFS-Snow-768x591.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 773px) 100vw, 773px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>As always, we take the specifics of those models with a grain of salt. These runs may be rushing things just a little bit, but it&#8217;s the trend to watch.<\/p>\n<p>Let&#8217;s review how we have set the stage for all this poential: I first gave you guys a heads up back in the summer that some of my analogs had a very fast start to winter. The past few weeks, we started seeing the indicies showing blocking trying to start up. Then the weekly model\u00a0forecasts started seeing this. The ensembles followed suit, and now the operational models are seeing it at times.<\/p>\n<p>That &#8220;progression&#8221; is why my confidence level is up there. Of course, if mother nature doesn&#8217;t deliver the goods, getting the progression right doesn&#8217;t really matter.<\/p>\n<p>Again, I think the above models are rushing things just a little bit, but have the &#8220;theme&#8221; of the mid to late month pattern I expect to set up.<\/p>\n<p>Make it a great day and take care.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Good Sunday to one and all. We continue to be in a mainly warm and windy pattern for the next several days, but\u00a0a cold front crashes the summer party later today. It&#8217;s provides us with a brief break from the warm weather that returns for early November. After that, things continue to evolve toward a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20384","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","et-doesnt-have-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20384","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=20384"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20384\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=20384"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=20384"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=20384"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}