{"id":26066,"date":"2017-11-27T01:57:45","date_gmt":"2017-11-27T06:57:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?p=26066"},"modified":"2017-11-27T02:00:14","modified_gmt":"2017-11-27T07:00:14","slug":"early-december-changes-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?p=26066","title":{"rendered":"Early December Changes Ahead"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good Monday, everyone. Our weather pattern is about to undergo a major change, with Old Man Winter getting ready to take control of the pattern for much of the country. Before that happens, we have some mild air setting up shop for a bit.<\/p>\n

I have a blowout post ready for you guys, so buckle up and let’s get after it.<\/p>\n

Before we look ahead, let’s compare our current November to last November. Last year, we had a ridiculously warm November, setting records across much of the country. This year has been just the opposite, with as much of the country coming in colder than normal as above normal. Much of Kentucky has been below normal through the completed days.<\/p>\n

Look at the stark difference…<\/p>\n

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Obviously, the pattern heading into this winter is a different beast compared to the one from the same time a year ago.<\/p>\n

Now, let’s talk about this week before we get to the major change to winter coming later next week.<\/p>\n

Today through Wednesday are seasonally mild on a gusty southwesterly wind. I’m sure lots of folks will be taking advantage of this nice weather, and I plan to do the same. \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n

There’s a small shower chance coming by Wednesday, but the main system holds off until we get to Thursday and Friday. This is a system the models continue to have a bit of trouble with in terms of strength. Regardless, gusty showers move in Thursday with a nice temperature drop on Friday…<\/p>\n

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Any flake chance on Friday depends on how strong our system is. My thoughts on that chance? Meh.<\/p>\n

Seasonal chill moves in for the weekend, but expect a temp rebound into early next week. This is ahead of the massive changes showing up across the Northern Hemisphere. The amount of blocking showing up is pretty darn impressive…<\/p>\n

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Blocks show up along the west coast of North America, Greenland and near the North Pole. That’s the trifecta of blocking, and usually delivers a lot of cold to the eastern half of the country.<\/p>\n

The models seem to be trending quicker with this change, which is usually good sign for the confidence level. The GFS is now bringing this front in here by next Tuesday…<\/p>\n

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The Canadian also shows the arrival of the deepening trough by next Wednesday…<\/p>\n

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Man, look at that blocking showing up!<\/p>\n

The Ensembles have all been locked in on this for a while, now. The European Ensembles have 51 different members, so to see this kind of cold from an average of 51 members is impressive…<\/p>\n

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Look at the single run of the European Control for the same time…<\/p>\n

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That shows the massive blocking over top, with frigid temps across much of the United States.<\/p>\n

All of this was talked about in the post I made last week on how the MJO signal might win the near term, but give way to the blocking signals showing up. As the MJO forecasts continue to come in with very low amplitude…<\/p>\n

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That allows for other signals,\u00a0 such as a -NAO, -AO, -EPO and +PNA to take control of the pattern. Each of those are cold signals for our region. All four of them showing up together is a very strong signal.<\/p>\n

Again, this starts later next week and likely locks in through Christmas. Can we get some snow from this setup? I would assume that’s going to be the case. To begin with, climatology for our first true snowfall falls within this same time period. Throw in all the cold and an active pattern, it might just increase those odds in a big way.<\/p>\n

There ya go… A blowout post to start the week. I will have updates later today, so check back. Make it a good Monday and take care.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Good Monday, everyone. Our weather pattern is about to undergo a major change, with Old Man Winter getting ready to take control of the pattern for much of the country. Before that happens, we have some mild air setting up shop for a bit. I have a blowout post ready for you guys, so buckle […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-26066","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","et-doesnt-have-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26066","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=26066"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26066\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=26066"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=26066"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=26066"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}