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<\/p>\nGood Tuesday to one and all. It’s a milder pattern taking shape for the next few days, but a developing winter storm is going to try and steal the show by Friday and Saturday. It’s a system that may\u00a0target parts of our region for the worst of the winter weather.<\/p>\n
Before we get to that mess, let’s talk about the weather out there today.<\/p>\n
Low clouds and fog are going to be awfully stubborn today. Throw in some drizzle and light showers, and you can get a pretty ugly day for some…<\/p>\n
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Showers move in tonight as warmer air surges in from the southwest. Temps spike well into the 50s on Wednesday, with 60 possible in the south and west.<\/p>\n
From there, the 60s show up for many of us on Thursday, with showers and thunderstorms on the increase. This is ahead of a modified arctic front dropping in from the west and northwest. As that front moves in, low pressure develops to our south and rolls northeastward.<\/p>\n
The exact track of that low will be the key on who gets in on a potential winter storm from Thursday night through Saturday. Right now, odds favor that low lifting from the deep south into east Tennessee and toward West Virginia, but the evolution on all that is still in doubt.<\/p>\n
I’m fully anticipate a Winter Storm Threat coming later today, but I wanted to go ahead and try to give a broad view of the areas most at risk for a potential impact…<\/p>\n
The greatest risk area is pretty general as I expect the brunt of the storm to be felt somewhere within that area. It does NOT mean the entire area will get hit , though I certainly can’t rule it out. The timing on it all is also dependent on your location. The farther west, the earlier the impact, obviously.<\/p>\n Let’s look at the latest model trends.<\/p>\n The GFS is farthest east of the model spread…<\/p>\n The GFS is a healthy hit for much of Kentucky.<\/p>\n The Canadian Model is a little stronger and slower and is just a hair west of the GFS with the greatest impact…<\/p>\n The European Model continues to be farthest west of all available models. It’s the only one closing off the energy at 500mb, and that is likely due to the bias of the model in being too slow with southern stream energy…<\/p>\n That’s still a healthy hit for western and central Kentucky, but it’s likely too wound up with the surface low. Still, it’s the European Model, so it gets a little more of a look.<\/p>\n The individual members of the GFS Ensembles\u00a0like the bluegrass state..<\/p>\n Here’s the average of those 21 models…<\/p>\n Some thoughts:<\/p>\n As the storm departs, wraparound snow showers and flurries may carry us through Sunday. That’s also when temps\u00a0have a chance at hitting the single digits again…<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/Special-2-2.png\")
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