{"id":27460,"date":"2018-01-10T02:06:01","date_gmt":"2018-01-10T07:06:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?p=27460"},"modified":"2018-01-10T02:06:01","modified_gmt":"2018-01-10T07:06:01","slug":"late-week-winter-storm-threat-continues","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?p=27460","title":{"rendered":"Late Week Winter Storm THREAT Continues"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good Wednesday, everyone. As we get ready for a couple of mild days across the bluegrass state, a\u00a0developing winter storm continues to come together for the end of the week. This could bring significant amounts of snow and ice to parts of Kentucky, prompting our Winter Storm THREAT.<\/p>\n

We are now within 48 hours of the winter storm impacting Kentucky and the latest models are all trending colder and farther east with the track of the potential storm. While the models all agree on that trend, they still vary in terms of the exact track of the low and how much precipitation it produces.<\/p>\n

All of the following images you are about to see are from different computer forecast models. They vary, sometimes greatly, with the impact on any one particular area and will change from run to run. Two things to remember here… Don’t get too attached to specifics or totals of any one model you see, and these are NOT a forecast from me. \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n

While I’m confident on a winter storm impacting the region, I’m still not confident on the specifics. That said, \u00a0I will get a first call map out later today.<\/p>\n

My last update showed how the NAM went crazy with the storm and is likely too extreme. However, the new European Model isn’t that far away from it. Watch the transition from rain to freezing rain and sleet, then snow…<\/p>\n

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That first image is Thursday night, with Saturday afternoon on the final image.<\/p>\n

Here’s the freezing rain accumulation map from that run…<\/p>\n

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And the snow map…<\/p>\n

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The GFS\u00a0takes the low toward West Virginia then seems to jump the low east of the mountains. Here’s the transition from rain to sleet and freezing rain then to snow…<\/p>\n

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The above timeline starts Thursday night and ends Saturday afternoon.<\/p>\n

The precipitation on the GFS looks a little suspect and is likely underdone. Here’s what that run shows for ice…<\/p>\n

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That’s VERY disjointed and suggests the model is having a few issues. The snow map from the same run has a good hit for many, but nothing earth-shattering…<\/p>\n

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The Canadian seems to have a similar line of thinking with the low going from Tennessee to West Virginia, then jumping east of the mountains…<\/p>\n

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The Canadian keeps the ice threat in the west and far north…<\/p>\n

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Compared to the GFS, the Canadian is much snowier, but also seems to be a little disjointed with the precipitation output…<\/p>\n

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The individual members of the GFS Ensembles show quite a spread in the axis of heavy snowfall…<\/p>\n

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We still have MANY computer model runs to go through before the event arrives. That means additional changes are a certainty.<\/p>\n

We will keep the Winter Storm Threat going until I get a better handle on where the axis of the worst weather sets up. A likely upgrade to Alert status will then follow.<\/p>\n

Arctic cold comes in behind the snow with flurries and snow showers likely rolling through Sunday. Another storm system moves in by Monday and Tuesday, potentially bringing another accumulating snowfall…<\/p>\n

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I will have updates throughout the day, so check back. Make it a good day and take care.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Good Wednesday, everyone. As we get ready for a couple of mild days across the bluegrass state, a\u00a0developing winter storm continues to come together for the end of the week. This could bring significant amounts of snow and ice to parts of Kentucky, prompting our Winter Storm THREAT. We are now within 48 hours of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-27460","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","et-doesnt-have-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27460","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=27460"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27460\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=27460"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=27460"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=27460"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}