{"id":29178,"date":"2018-03-22T19:21:11","date_gmt":"2018-03-22T23:21:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?p=29178"},"modified":"2018-03-22T19:21:11","modified_gmt":"2018-03-22T23:21:11","slug":"thursday-evening-update-42","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?p=29178","title":{"rendered":"Thursday Evening Update"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Good evening, everyone. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the Winter Storm THREAT for parts of the region to start the upcoming weekend.<\/p>\n<p>In the overall scheme of things, my thoughts haven&#8217;t changed, with the greatest threat for heavy snow across the north and northeast. That said, the model trend, sans the NAM, has been nudging this thing a little farther south.<\/p>\n<p>The European Model precipitation type shows the fine line we are walking, between heavy rain an heavy snow. Notice there is only a VERY narrow band of mixed rain and snow, with a touch of sleet to start&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?attachment_id=29175\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-29175\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-29175\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/Euro-3-6.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"926\" height=\"1848\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/Euro-3-6.png 926w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/Euro-3-6-150x300.png 150w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/Euro-3-6-768x1533.png 768w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/Euro-3-6-513x1024.png 513w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 926px) 100vw, 926px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>This is not a freezing rain setup.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the snow map from that run of the European&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?attachment_id=29176\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-29176\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-29176\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/Euro-16.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"968\" height=\"619\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/Euro-16.png 968w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/Euro-16-300x192.png 300w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/Euro-16-768x491.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 968px) 100vw, 968px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The European Ensembles have a similar placement&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?attachment_id=29174\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-29174\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-29174\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/Euro-2-11.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"574\" height=\"428\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/Euro-2-11.png 574w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/Euro-2-11-300x224.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 574px) 100vw, 574px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The GFS has a similar placement for the heaviest snows&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?attachment_id=29182\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-29182\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-29182\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/GFS-Snow-2-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"966\" height=\"617\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/GFS-Snow-2-2.png 966w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/GFS-Snow-2-2-300x192.png 300w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/GFS-Snow-2-2-768x491.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 966px) 100vw, 966px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The afternoon run of the RGEM (short range Canadian) only goes out through midday Saturday, and is very similar to the European&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?attachment_id=29181\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-29181\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-29181\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/Canadian-8.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"907\" height=\"796\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/Canadian-8.png 907w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/Canadian-8-300x263.png 300w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/Canadian-8-768x674.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 907px) 100vw, 907px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Last night, and countless times over the years, I talked about the NAM overdoing Warm Air Advection. That&#8217;s a well known bias of the model, which usually results in precipitation being too far north. After a normal looking 12z run, the 18z run blew up to the north&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?attachment_id=29177\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-29177\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-29177\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/NAM-21.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"965\" height=\"618\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/NAM-21.png 965w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/NAM-21-300x192.png 300w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/NAM-21-768x492.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 965px) 100vw, 965px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Again, that looks too far north and too widespread because the model overdoes Warm Air Advection.<\/p>\n<p>My earlier thoughts remain my current thoughts on the areas most at risk&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-29171\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/Special-2-8.png\" sizes=\"(max-width: 629px) 100vw, 629px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/Special-2-8.png 629w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/Special-2-8-300x239.png 300w\" alt=\"\" width=\"629\" height=\"501\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Here is a look at the Winter Storm Watch for the north&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" id=\"homepage_map\" src=\"http:\/\/maps8.pivotalweather.com\/maps\/warnings\/nwshaz.us_ov.png\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p>I should have a First Call For Snowfall late tonight. Have a great evening and take care.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Good evening, everyone. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the Winter Storm THREAT for parts of the region to start the upcoming weekend. In the overall scheme of things, my thoughts haven&#8217;t changed, with the greatest threat for heavy snow across the north and northeast. That said, the model trend, sans [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29178","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","et-doesnt-have-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29178","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=29178"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29178\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=29178"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=29178"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=29178"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}