{"id":31495,"date":"2018-10-06T02:35:49","date_gmt":"2018-10-06T06:35:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?p=31495"},"modified":"2018-10-06T02:35:49","modified_gmt":"2018-10-06T06:35:49","slug":"tracking-a-major-pattern-change","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?p=31495","title":{"rendered":"Tracking A Major Pattern Change"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Good Saturday, everyone. Our summertime pattern rolls on through the weekend, but this setup is about to change in a big way. A major pattern shift is about to take place next week and could bring us more rain from the tropics, followed by some real deal fall chill.<\/p>\n<p>Let&#8217;s begin with today and roll forward. Temps are steamy once again and we are likely tracking scattered showers and thunderstorms. Any boomer that blows up can put down heavy rains&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/sirocco.accuweather.com\/nx_mosaic_640x480_public\/sir\/inmaSIRKY_.gif\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"http:\/\/builder.zoomradar.net\/zoomradar_weather_map\/weather_page.php?key=9nNfA2mOMDiJ4LG\" width=\"560\" height=\"462\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" seamless=\"seamless\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/gray.ftp.clickability.com\/wkytwebftp\/WEBWATCHES.jpg\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/gray.ftp.clickability.com\/wkytwebftp\/WEBWARNINGS.jpg\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p>I continue to hone in on the setup for next week. It&#8217;s one that will feature a big fall cold front moving our way, potentially hooking up with a tropical system coming out of the Gulf of Mexico.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the system of interest down in the Caribbean&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" id=\"twofig2d\" src=\"http:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/xgtwo\/two_atl_2d0.png\" alt=\"\" usemap=\"#twomap2d0\" width=\"900\" name=\"twofig2d\" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Where that system goes will, ultimately, be the deciding factor on how much rain we get for the middle and end of the week.<\/p>\n<p>Let&#8217;s start by looking at a few of the hurricane model tracks&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.tropicaltidbits.com\/storminfo\/91L_tracks_latest.png\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The GFS Ensembles track forecast&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.tropicaltidbits.com\/storminfo\/91L_gefs_latest.png\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Keep in mind, we are early in the formation of this storm, so the models will shift around.<\/p>\n<p>As far as the operational models are concerned, the Canadian is a likely too far west with the current track&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?attachment_id=31500\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-31500\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-31500\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/canadian-4.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"786\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The new version of the GFS continues to be right on top of us&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?attachment_id=31501\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-31501\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-31501\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/GFS-5.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"786\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The European hasn&#8217;t had a very good summer with figuring out where tropical systems are going. It is leaving the system meandering in the deep south while sending up a lot of tropical moisture into our region&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?attachment_id=31503\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-31503\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-31503\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Euro.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1260\" height=\"987\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Euro.png 1260w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Euro-300x235.png 300w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Euro-768x602.png 768w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Euro-1024x802.png 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1260px) 100vw, 1260px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>My initial thought is this system has a good chance of being drawn northward into our region, ahead of an approaching cold front&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?attachment_id=31498\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-31498\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-31498\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Special-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"701\" height=\"582\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Special-3.png 701w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Special-3-300x249.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 701px) 100vw, 701px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>That could give us another heavy rain event, which would be the 4th of the season from a tropical system. The timing of that front is key to exactly where that system winds up.<\/p>\n<p>Much cooler air follows that up, with another system by the weekend delivering even colder air.<\/p>\n<p>I will throw you another update later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Good Saturday, everyone. Our summertime pattern rolls on through the weekend, but this setup is about to change in a big way. A major pattern shift is about to take place next week and could bring us more rain from the tropics, followed by some real deal fall chill. Let&#8217;s begin with today and roll [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","et-doesnt-have-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31495","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=31495"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31495\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=31495"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=31495"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=31495"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}