{"id":31550,"date":"2018-10-08T12:42:43","date_gmt":"2018-10-08T16:42:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?p=31550"},"modified":"2018-10-08T12:42:43","modified_gmt":"2018-10-08T16:42:43","slug":"monday-afternoon-update-29","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?p=31550","title":{"rendered":"Monday Afternoon Update"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good afternoon, gang. I wanted to drop by for an update on our potential impact from Michael and the flip to fall that moves in right after. That flip is going to take us from much warmer than normal to much colder than normal. I mean… Who wants to be normal anyway? \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n

Michael if now a hurricane and is going to become a major hurricane. I threw out the Opal reference a few days ago and now it’s being thrown around in every weather circle. At the time, I did not think this would get as strong as Opal, but it may very well get there. Here’s the latest from the NHC…<\/p>\n

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It continues to be interesting to see the official track from the NHC\u00a0being so far south of all the guidance. The hurricane models continue to shift a little west…<\/p>\n

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The GFS Ensembles are WELL west of the NHC track…<\/p>\n

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So are the Canadian Ensembles…<\/p>\n

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In this scenario, I would put more stock in the Ensembles than the hurricane models (which have already started to go a little west). Why? Because the Ensembles and operational models will likely handle the approaching cold front much better.<\/p>\n

Speaking of the operational models. The Canadian Model matches the Ensembles track…<\/p>\n

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The new version of the GFS is similar…<\/p>\n

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What does all that mean for us?<\/p>\n