{"id":32953,"date":"2018-12-06T02:11:57","date_gmt":"2018-12-06T07:11:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?p=32953"},"modified":"2018-12-06T02:11:57","modified_gmt":"2018-12-06T07:11:57","slug":"a-model-fight-brewing-for-the-weekend","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?p=32953","title":{"rendered":"A Model Fight Brewing For The Weekend"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Good Thursday, folks. As we inch closer to the weekend and a possible winter storm impact, I was hoping for a little more help from the computer forecast models. Sadly, that&#8217;s not the case. The overnight runs are giving us the biggest model fight of the event, so far.<\/p>\n<p>Given the little fight going on, I want\u00a0 to see a few runs today before possibly upgrading to a Winter Storm THREAT.<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;ll get to that storm in a moment, but we have another burst of light snow to track before it arrives.<\/p>\n<p>A weak front drops in from northwest to southeast this evening and should produce a band of mixed showers of rain and snow that go over to light snow as it moves across the state&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/NAM-2.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-32955\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/NAM-2.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"783\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Some light accumulations are possible in a few spots.<\/p>\n<p>In terms of the weekend winter storm potential, we still have a lot of questions to be answered and details to be ironed out. Nothing is set in stone and may not be for another day or so. Given all that, I will keep this map going for the time being&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Chris.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-32950\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Chris.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"912\" height=\"513\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Chris.png 912w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Chris-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Chris-768x432.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 912px) 100vw, 912px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The GFS matches up pretty well with that&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/GFS-3-3.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-32957\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/GFS-3-3.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"742\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the snapshot of that model run for snowfall&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/GFS-snow-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-32959\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/GFS-snow-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1100\" height=\"805\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/GFS-snow-1.png 1100w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/GFS-snow-1-300x220.png 300w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/GFS-snow-1-768x562.png 768w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/GFS-snow-1-1024x749.png 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Freezing rain forecast from that particular run&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/GFS-snow-2-2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-32960\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/GFS-snow-2-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1100\" height=\"801\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/GFS-snow-2-2.png 1100w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/GFS-snow-2-2-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/GFS-snow-2-2-768x559.png 768w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/GFS-snow-2-2-1024x746.png 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The Canadian Model is a smidge farther south, but is also similar&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/CANADIAN-2.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-32958\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/CANADIAN-2.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"742\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the snow map from that particular run&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Canadian-5.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-32962\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Canadian-5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1100\" height=\"801\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Canadian-5.png 1100w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Canadian-5-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Canadian-5-768x559.png 768w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Canadian-5-1024x746.png 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The new version of the GFS had been super consistent in how it was handling this storm system. The latest run took a little stroll to the south&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/GFS-17.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-32966\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/GFS-17.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"786\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The European Model also took a south stroll, but it really looks to be having\u00a0some big issues again&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Euro-12.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-32963\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Euro-12.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"736\" height=\"454\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Euro-12.png 736w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Euro-12-300x185.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 736px) 100vw, 736px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The Euro has been the most inconsistent of all the models to this point and that&#8217;s sad to see.<\/p>\n<p>When we find operational models in disagreement, it&#8217;s always good to look at the Ensembles. They are made up of many different runs that show an average. The GFS Ensembles are holding serve from what they had earlier&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/GFS-Snow-6.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-32965\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/GFS-Snow-6.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1067\" height=\"641\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/GFS-Snow-6.png 1067w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/GFS-Snow-6-300x180.png 300w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/GFS-Snow-6-768x461.png 768w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/GFS-Snow-6-1024x615.png 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1067px) 100vw, 1067px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Here are the 21 individual ensemble members that make up the average you see above&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/GFS-Snow-2-4.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-32964\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/GFS-Snow-2-4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1198\" height=\"949\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/GFS-Snow-2-4.png 1198w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/GFS-Snow-2-4-300x238.png 300w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/GFS-Snow-2-4-768x608.png 768w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/GFS-Snow-2-4-1024x811.png 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1198px) 100vw, 1198px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>You can see the majority of those members have a fairly solid west to east swath of snow across the state. Only a couple do not.<\/p>\n<p>I will be back with your midday update and hopefully some better clarity on this potential. \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<p>Make it a good one and take care.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Good Thursday, folks. As we inch closer to the weekend and a possible winter storm impact, I was hoping for a little more help from the computer forecast models. Sadly, that&#8217;s not the case. The overnight runs are giving us the biggest model fight of the event, so far. Given the little fight going on, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-32953","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","et-doesnt-have-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32953","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=32953"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32953\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=32953"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=32953"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=32953"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}