![\"\"](\"http:\/\/sirocco.accuweather.com\/nx_mosaic_640x480_public\/sir\/inmaSIRKY_.gif\")
<\/a><\/p>\nThursday starts with wind chills around 10 degrees and ends with wind chills in the low 20s. Skies will be partly cloudy.<\/p>\n
That brings us to our weekend winter storm system. Here are some thoughts:<\/p>\n
- \n
- The timeline on this potential winter storm is Friday night through Sunday night<\/li>\n
- This system is different than the systems we’ve had over the past month. It has cold air already in place and a cold high to the north.<\/li>\n
- The track of the low is pretty much west to east across the southern states, then it tries to turn the corner up the coast.<\/li>\n
- This low will have an inverted trough into the lower Ohio Valley. That funnels moisture into the cold air, producing accumulating snow for many.<\/li>\n
- Still, the southern half of the state may see this switch to a rain\/snow mix or plain rain for a time on Saturday and Saturday night.<\/li>\n
- All of this should go back over to snow and light snow on Sunday.<\/li>\n
- For areas getting in on all snow for the duration of the event, several inches of snow will be likely.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Here’s a map of my current line of thinking…<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/Special-3-2.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nKeep in mind those lines may shift north or south over the next few days. An upgrade to a Winter Storm THREAT may come later today if confidence comes up just a bit.<\/p>\n
As far as the forecast models go, we see them with the same general idea, but they are vastly different with the amount of precipitation across the region.<\/p>\n
The European Model isn’t holding back…<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/Euro-15.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nIn my last update,\u00a0I posted an article on how the government shutdown is negatively impacting the American models like the GFS and NAM. There’s no one around to maintain these models, so the skill scores are apparently dropping off. So, I guess we have to take them with a grain of salt.<\/p>\n
Anyway here’s the GFS…<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/GFS-5.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nThe average snowfall map from the 21 member GFS Ensembles looks like this…<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/GFS-Snow-8.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/CANADIAN-1.gif\")
<\/a><\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/Canadian-4.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n