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<\/a>Check out the temps behind that system…<\/p>\nLet’s talk a little about the upcoming winter and where we stand as we start November. The current state of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans continues to feature water temps above normal…<\/p>\n 2013<\/p>\n 2014<\/p>\n The new seasonal JAMSTEC is out and it shows a continuation of that warm pool in the Gulf of Alaska from December through February…<\/p>\n<\/a>The wind chills from the Canadian are way down there…<\/p>\n<\/a>The GFS is slowly shedding it’s progressive bias in these types of setups and is coming around to showing our system, but it’s too far south…<\/p>\n<\/a>The GFS continues to see the potential bigger system coming in behind that one and unleashing some nutso cold…<\/p>\n<\/a>As you can see, we have some early season winter action to track this year.<\/p>\n<\/a>You can see that warm pool of water showing up near the Gulf of Alaska. While similar to what was showing up at the same time in 2013 and 2014, there are differences in placement and magnitude…<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a>Those aren’t bad matches for either the Pacific or the Atlantic. If you recall, both winters started early, took a bit of a break then came on strong for the second half of winter and gave us a lot of snow, including historic snowstorms. 2014 also gave us snowflakes on Halloween. Hmm. These also match some of the analogs I used based on September. Remember how those same analogs had some late October snows? Those worked out very well, so it’s interesting to see the current state of the oceans also match up with recent years that gave us similar conditions to the analogs.<\/p>\n