{"id":45700,"date":"2020-12-13T01:57:29","date_gmt":"2020-12-13T06:57:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?p=45700"},"modified":"2020-12-13T01:57:29","modified_gmt":"2020-12-13T06:57:29","slug":"two-winter-weather-makers-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?p=45700","title":{"rendered":"Two Winter Weather Makers Ahead"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Good Sunday, folks. Our developing storm system continues to come in better focus and the trend toward more of a snow look is showing up tonight and early Monday. This fast-moving system may create its own cold air for a period of heavy, wet snow for parts of the state. This is the first of two winter weather makers I&#8217;m tracking over the next few days.<\/p>\n<p>Here are some thoughts on what we are dealing with:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>This is a big time moisture producer as it moves quickly across the region.<\/li>\n<li>Temperatures are marginal for snow, but heavy rain moving in will eventually pull down much colder air overnight. This dynamic cooling process is something we saw very well in central Kentucky a few weeks ago. The heavier the rain, the better the chance for snow. I know that sounds weird, but it&#8217;s how these situations work.<\/li>\n<li>Given the amount of moisture, this could very well be a heavy, wet snow setting up for some. Snowfall rates easily overcome ground temps that are marginal for accumulation.<\/li>\n<li>How much accumulation any one location gets is tricky as we have a lot of variables to take into consideration. The bust potential actually goes both ways with this one. &#x1f92c;<\/li>\n<li>The main questions in terms of snow fall go like this: Where does the heaviest band set up? How far north and west will the potential for accumulations go? How long does it take for the rain to switch to snow?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Given what I&#8217;ve seen from the latest model trends, here&#8217;s my First Call For Snowfall&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/SPECIAL-MAP-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-45708\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/SPECIAL-MAP-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1000\" height=\"600\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/SPECIAL-MAP-1.png 1000w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/SPECIAL-MAP-1-300x180.png 300w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/SPECIAL-MAP-1-768x461.png 768w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/SPECIAL-MAP-1-627x376.png 627w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/SPECIAL-MAP-1-440x264.png 440w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Keep in mind, this is an initial forecast and not the final product. That may be a work in progress right on through the overnight. Also, this is likely to be a slushy snow that mostly sticks to grassy and elevated surfaces. Still, it can easily accumulate on roads in the heavier bands for a time in the southeast.<\/p>\n<p>If you want to see what dynamic cooling looks like. Check out these future radars. Notice how the heavy rain sets in then all of a sudden&#8230; boom&#8230; snow takes over&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>HI RES NAM<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/NAM-16.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-45697\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/NAM-16.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"984\" height=\"808\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The HRRR is spot on to that&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/HRRR.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-45694\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/HRRR.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"984\" height=\"808\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>THE FOLLOWING ARE ONLY COMPUTER MODEL FORECAST MAPS. THESE CHANGE FROM RUN TO RUN.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Here are the snow maps from those particular runs&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>HI RES NAM<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/NAM-2-9.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-45696\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/NAM-2-9.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"968\" height=\"759\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/NAM-2-9.png 968w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/NAM-2-9-300x235.png 300w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/NAM-2-9-768x602.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 968px) 100vw, 968px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>HRRR<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/HRRR-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-45695\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/HRRR-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"964\" height=\"760\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/HRRR-1.png 964w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/HRRR-1-300x237.png 300w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/HRRR-1-768x605.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 964px) 100vw, 964px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The NAM actually is very similar&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/NAM-15.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-45698\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/NAM-15.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"971\" height=\"761\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/NAM-15.png 971w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/NAM-15-300x235.png 300w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/NAM-15-768x602.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 971px) 100vw, 971px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The EURO has been much more consistent and is likely more realistic&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/EURO-13.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-45707\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/EURO-13.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"966\" height=\"760\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/EURO-13.png 966w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/EURO-13-300x236.png 300w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/EURO-13-768x604.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 966px) 100vw, 966px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>On the opposite end of the spectrum is the GFS. The GFS failed miserably during the last dynamic cooling situation a few weeks back and literally never said it was snowing, even as it was snowing in many areas. Here&#8217;s what the GFS shows&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/GFS-17.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-45704\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/GFS-17.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"968\" height=\"757\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/GFS-17.png 968w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/GFS-17-300x235.png 300w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/GFS-17-768x601.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 968px) 100vw, 968px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Regardless of what happens with this system, we have no time to waste before the next one is rolling in. This arrives by Tuesday night and may take us through early Thursday. One area of low pressure works into the lower Ohio Valley or Tennessee Valley before a stronger low takes over east of the Appalachian Mountains. Where this first low winds up will be the determining factor between what kind of precipitation any one location gets. As of now, I fully expect our region to be getting snow, rain and a touch of freezing rain\/sleet.<\/p>\n<p>The NAM only goes through 7am Wednesday, but shows a healthier lead low that&#8217;s actually only gets into east Tennessee, bringing better threat for snow and winter weather&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/NAM-2-7.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-45702\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/NAM-2-7.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"984\" height=\"808\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The EURO continues to bring a little of everything into the region&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/EURO-21.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-45710\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/EURO-21.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"984\" height=\"808\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The Canadian&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/Canadian-21.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-45709\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/Canadian-21.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"984\" height=\"808\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Just like with every winter system in the east, the GFS has issues. It has way too many lows and is most progressive and flat with the storm in the east. I&#8217;m gonna keep pounding this model bias down the throats of weather lovers until the entire weather world notices. \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/GFS-22.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-45706\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/GFS-22.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"984\" height=\"808\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>This is going to be a major snowstorm across areas of the Appalachian Mountains to the big cities of the east coast.<\/p>\n<p>I will have additional updates\/upgrades coming your way later today, so check back.<\/p>\n<p>Have a good one and take care.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Good Sunday, folks. Our developing storm system continues to come in better focus and the trend toward more of a snow look is showing up tonight and early Monday. This fast-moving system may create its own cold air for a period of heavy, wet snow for parts of the state. This is the first of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45700","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","et-doesnt-have-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45700","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=45700"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45700\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=45700"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=45700"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=45700"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}