{"id":513,"date":"2011-01-23T05:49:00","date_gmt":"2011-01-23T05:49:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dev.kyweathercenter.com\/?p=513"},"modified":"2011-01-23T05:49:00","modified_gmt":"2011-01-23T05:49:00","slug":"models-go-west-for-winter-storm-threat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?p=513","title":{"rendered":"Models Go West For Winter Storm Threat"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good Sunday everyone and thanks for checking out our little slice of weather heaven.  All eyes are on the potential for a major winter storm to develop and impact much of the eastern half of the country during the next several days.  The overnight computer models took a little westward jog with the forecast track of the low putting our region more in play. It doesn’t mean they are right… but, if you are a snow lover, that’s a better trend for you than having it go east.

The blog upgraded to a Winter Storm Threat Saturday afternoon and we continue in Threat mode for Tuesday into Wednesday.  THREAT means  there is an increased risk for a significant snow event for our region. This is NOT a certainty and is basically a heads up to the potential I am seeing. Here is the risk map…



I will be updating that map later today as I get more confident in the track of the low. Speaking of the track of the low… every single model run Saturday night came west with this storm. The GFS and European Models had been the last to see the light… but both made significant westward adjustments and I suspect they are not done.

The NAM model has a track and setup that is a good one for big snows across much of the state…



That run of the NAM would deliver a possible<\/STRONG> shutdown snow for the eastern half of the state. Again.. that’s if we assume it’s right. That run does look a lot like the prior runs I had posted of the Canadian and JMA models.

The GFS Ensembles have been trending toward something similar…



The mean of the GFS Ensembles puts down more than a half inch of liquid all the way back into central Kentucky with more than .75″ in the east. Keep in mind… that is the smoothed out version as it’s an average of many different runs.

As of now… it all comes down to the track of the low. The farther west the track into the Carolinas… the better the risk for a significant snow event. The farther east the low goes… the lower the chances for snow. I will get more specific with my thoughts later today… but the fact I upgraded to a Threat should tell you something about where my head is.

Oh yeah… your weather today will feature more of the same with cold temps and some flurries or a touch of light snow.

Lots of updates coming your way today so be sure to check back and I may even go with a live chat this evening.

Have a great Sunday and take care.
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Good Sunday everyone and thanks for checking out our little slice of weather heaven.  All eyes are on the potential for a major winter storm to develop and impact much of the eastern half of the country during the next several days.  The overnight computer models took a little westward jog with the forecast track […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-513","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","et-doesnt-have-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/513","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=513"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/513\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=513"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=513"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=513"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}