![\"\"](\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Chris-Special-2.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nLet’s give you a breakdown of how things may play out:<\/p>\n
- \n
- Low pressure works into the region New Year’s Eve and Day.<\/li>\n
- This brings rounds of showers and storms working from southwest to northeast.<\/li>\n
- Some of the storms may be strong or severe Friday evening into Saturday.<\/li>\n
- Damaging wind is the main threat, though there is a low tornado threat across the west and south. This tornado threat is conditional.<\/li>\n
- A corridor of torrential rains will set up and we have to be on guard for training of storms. This may setup from western into central parts of the state. Some areas may see up to 4″ of rain out of this.<\/li>\n
- Flooding and flash flooding will be possible in the areas getting the heaviest rains.<\/li>\n
- Colder air surges in from west to east Saturday night and Sunday. The timing on this cold air will, obviously, vary from one part of the state to the other.<\/li>\n
- Low pressure develops along our front and is likely to produce a swath of light snow for much of the area. The intensity of this remains to be seen, but there’s a real chance for the first accumulating snowfall for many. It’s all about where this low develops and how strong it gets.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
The Storm Prediction Center has much of Kentucky in the risk for severe weather on New Year’s Eve…<\/p>\n
![](\"https:\/\/www.spc.noaa.gov\/public\/state\/images\/KY_swody2.png\")
<\/p>\nThis threat continues into New Year’s Day…<\/p>\n
![](\"https:\/\/www.spc.noaa.gov\/public\/state\/images\/KY_swody3.png\")
<\/p>\nYou can see how the greatest risk is across the southern half of the state.<\/p>\n
In addition to the severe threat, the flooding potential is elevated. The forecast models vary on the placement of the heaviest rains, but you can see the southwest to northeast corridor I’m talking about…<\/p>\n
GFS<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/GFS-51.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nCANADIAN<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Canadian-2-5.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nSHORT RANGE CANADIAN<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Canadian-30.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nEURO<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Euro-35.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nICON<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/ICON-3.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nThe case for snow on Sunday is literally all about a wave of low pressure and where it develops, and how strong it is.\u00a0 The models handle this differently still, but you’re definitely seeing the trend of this other low…<\/p>\n
GFS<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/GFS-70.gif\")
<\/a><\/p>\nShort Range Canadian<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/CANADIAN-49.gif\")
<\/a><\/p>\nEURO<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/EURO-47.gif\")
<\/a><\/p>\nNAM<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/NAM-13.gif\")
<\/a><\/p>\nTemps rebound by the middle of the week, but an arctic front looks to slam in here on Thursday and may have another wave of low pressure along it. Here’s how the GFS sees it…<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/GFS-2-31.gif\")
<\/a><\/p>\nAnd the EURO…<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/EURO-2-25.gif\")
<\/a><\/p>\nThis introduces cold air and then we see reinforcing blasts of cold controlling the pattern from there. Temps look well below normal…<\/p>\n
GFS Ensembles<\/p>\n