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<\/a><\/p>\nEURO<\/p>\n
As mentioned, the tropics are back and will play a role in the overall pattern across the United States. Tropical Depression 7 is likely to become a Tropical Storm very soon. Here’s the track on this from the National Hurricane Center…<\/p>\n That system should turn north after it goes through the Dominican and may impact the Bahamas and threaten the southeastern states. As you would expect, the operational models are having a time figuring out what to do with it and the overall pattern around here.<\/p>\n The EURO sweeps a couple of troughs through the east and steers this system well off the coast…<\/p>\n The GFS is a much closer call…<\/p>\n Obviously, those will change a lot in the coming days.<\/p>\n Whatever comes of this system, the ENSEMBLES continue to point toward a deep eastern US trough to close the month. This is the average for the final 5 days of September from the GFS Ensembles…<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Looking deeper into November and December, the increasing potential for a trough in the east is there. Several of my current analog years were pretty harsh winter weather makers in December and this is where my mind is for the winter forecast. Well, at least, for now.<\/p>\n The JMA seasonal Model is going toward a deep eastern trough starting in November…<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n