{"id":60361,"date":"2023-08-10T00:33:21","date_gmt":"2023-08-10T04:33:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?p=60361"},"modified":"2023-08-09T22:08:33","modified_gmt":"2023-08-10T02:08:33","slug":"active-setup-continues-and-a-look-way-down-the-road","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?p=60361","title":{"rendered":"Active Setup Continues and A Look Way Down The Road"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good Thursday, folks. We continue with a very active pattern and the setup ahead of us will bring more cold fronts through the region. This post will also look much farther down the road toward winter, so buckle up and let’s get after it.<\/p>\n

We begin with what’s going on out there today. Rain and some storms will start the day across central and eastern Kentucky with a slow drying trend settling in from the northwest. Some areas can pick up enough rain to cause local high water issues.<\/p>\n

Here are your radars to follow along\u2026<\/p>\n

\n
\n

\"\"<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Temps for much of central and eastern Kentucky can only top out in the upper 70s and low 80s.<\/p>\n

A mix of sun and clouds will be noted for Friday with temps in the 80s. There’s still a small chance for a shower or storm, but most stay dry.<\/p>\n

Scattered storms rumble back in by Saturday and hang around into Sunday. This is ahead of a cold front crashing through here on Monday. That brings more widespread showers and storms.<\/p>\n

It’s the first of 3 more systems set to drop in from the northwest next week into the following weekend.<\/p>\n

Once again, we find the EURO and Canadian Models in pretty good agreement with one another…<\/p>\n

EURO<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

CANADIAN<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Both models continue to show deep troughs swinging in from the northwest during this time<\/p>\n

EURO<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

CANADIAN<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Those come with additional shots of below normal temps.<\/p>\n

Y’all know my thoughts on the GFS and why I haven’t been using it very much this summer. It knows nothing but phantom heat waves and drought. Just a few days ago, I posted how the\u00a0 GFS was showing temps of 105-110 here next week while other models had cooler than normal temps.<\/p>\n

The GFS now shows the cool and has lows deep into the 50s…<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Those lows are coming on the same days the model has been showing phantom historic heat numbers. You can’t make this stuff up, folks.<\/p>\n

I’ve been promising some winter talk for a bit now and I’m finally doing just that. Some of the seasonal models now have the winter within their forecast range so I thought it would be fun to share with you guys what they are saying.<\/p>\n

Obviously, skill scores aren’t the greatest in the world from this far out, but when has that ever stopped us from looking? 😎<\/p>\n

The CanSIPS is a seasonal model from Canada and rarely sees anything other than ridges and warm temps across the US and that’s why recent runs of the model have raised eyebrows. Why? Because it’s showing a colder than normal winter for much of the lower 48.<\/p>\n

Let’s take it month by month and look a the 500mb height anomalies.<\/p>\n

The monthly mean for November shows troughing developing across the eastern half of the country…<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

You can see this strengthening into December…<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

By January, we see blocking going up over the top with a an even deeper trough across the country…<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The model shows the February trough going wild with a classic block from the west coast hooking up with blocking Greenland…<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

That continues into March…<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

As mentioned, the CANSIPS rarely shows below normal temps in the winter months, but that’s not the case with this run.<\/p>\n

Near normal temps for November…<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Normal or a touch below for December…<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Watch the colder than normal temps get more established in January…<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

And then go crazy in February…<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

And into March…<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Interesting, eh? Get it… Canadian… Eh? I know, that’s a bad joke so I’ll just say…<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Could the Canadian be onto something? I have another respected seasonal model that’s showing something similar and I’ll be sharing that this weekend.<\/p>\n

Have a great Thursday and take care.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Good Thursday, folks. We continue with a very active pattern and the setup ahead of us will bring more cold fronts through the region. This post will also look much farther down the road toward winter, so buckle up and let’s get after it. We begin with what’s going on out there today. Rain and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-60361","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","et-doesnt-have-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60361","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=60361"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60361\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=60361"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=60361"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=60361"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}