- \n
- Temps surge into the 60s on a stout southwest flow as one low pressure works toward the Great Lakes.<\/li>\n
- Scattered showers and a few storms develop during the morning and early afternoon.<\/li>\n
- Storms increase Saturday afternoon and evening.<\/li>\n
- Some of these storms may be strong or even severe, especially in the west and south. This is where the Storm Prediction Center has a low-end risk for severe weather..<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
![](\"https:\/\/www.spc.noaa.gov\/partners\/outlooks\/state\/images\/KY_swody2.png?1701969906\")
<\/p>\nSATURDAY NIGHT<\/h2>\n
- \n
- Our cold front slows down right on top of us as a stronger low pressure develops along it. This rolls right across central and eastern Kentucky into Sunday morning.<\/li>\n
- Heavy rain and thunderstorms are likely during this time.<\/li>\n
- Locally heavy rains may cause some quick rises on creeks and streams.<\/li>\n
- Winds crank with 30mph or greater gusts possible.<\/li>\n
- Colder air crashes into western Kentucky and there’s the chance for a few flakes to fly along and west of Interstate 65.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
SUNDAY<\/h2>\n
- \n
- The low pressure pushes off to the east and northeast with cold air crashing in from west to east.<\/li>\n
- Heavy rain in central and eastern Kentucky is likely in the morning hours.<\/li>\n
- As the cold crashes into the back edge of this rain shield, we watch to see if a band of light snow can develop. Odds are against this at the moment.<\/li>\n
- The best chance for this is across the eastern half of the state during the afternoon.<\/li>\n
- Temps by afternoon drop into the 30s statewide with a wind chill in the upper 20s.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
SUNDAY NIGHT<\/h2>\n
- \n
- Northwest winds will likely touch off some flurries or a light snow shower across the east, especially.<\/li>\n
- Overnight lows drop into the 20s.<\/li>\n
- Below freezing temps and a lot of water from earlier rains may combine to cause some icy spots to develop.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
MONDAY<\/h2>\n
- \n
- Morning flakes are possible in the east.<\/li>\n
- Temps are mainly in the 30s for highs with wind chills making it feel several degrees colder.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Let’s take a look at the models, starting with the Hi Res NAM. This model only goes through 7am Sunday, but the future radar is showing a transition to some snow at the end of the run…<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/NAM-7.gif\")
<\/a><\/p>\nThat appears to be going toward earlier runs of the NAM, but the latest run of the model isn’t as gung-ho on the snow but still produces some of the light stuff..<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/NAM-2-1.gif\")
<\/a><\/p>\nIf you’re a snow lover, the NAM fam is your best bet right now. Other models do bring some flakes into the eastern half of the state, but not quite like the NAM and Hi Res NAM, and those aren’t showing a lot.<\/p>\n
Rainfall from this system continues to be heaviest on the American Models like the GFS and NAM…<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/GFS-6.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/NAM-4.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nThe Canadian and EURO models aren’t as jacked up with the rain numbers…<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Canadian-7.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/EURO-2-5.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nLet’s talk about the temp behind the Saturday night and early Sunday cold front. As you know, highs ahead of the front on Saturday are likely to reach the 60s. Those numbers come way down once the front passes. Check out the progression…<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/NAM-2-1.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nThe weather after this turns pretty calm next week before ramping up next weekend into the week leading up to Christmas Weekend. This is the time of December I’ve been pointing to for winter to settle into our region. This change is also being backed up by the MJO swinging into colder phases and the longer range models having a consistent signal for cold and winter weather.<\/p>\n
It’s a transition that sees lower heights developing across the south and southeast before expanding across much of the eastern half of the country as blocking starts to do some work up in Canada. You can see this by looking at the JMA. Watch the trough develop in the south in week two…<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/JMA.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nNow watch what happens Christmas week into the last week of the year…<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/JMA-2.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nThis looks a lot like what the EURO Weeklies have been showing for the end of the month and into January…<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/EURO-2-4.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nThe control run of the EURO Weeklies continues to show an even deeper trough…<\/p>\n