{"id":62431,"date":"2023-12-12T01:50:18","date_gmt":"2023-12-12T06:50:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?p=62431"},"modified":"2023-12-12T01:50:18","modified_gmt":"2023-12-12T06:50:18","slug":"the-weekend-is-a-work-in-progress","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?p=62431","title":{"rendered":"The Weekend Is A Work In Progress"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Good Tuesday, folks. It&#8217;s inauguration day in Kentucky and the weather is looking seasonably cold, but really nice. This pattern hangs tough for the rest of the week before we track the potential of a big eastern US storm for the weekend.<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;ll take a look at that possibility and looking farther down the road toward the long awaited winter changes.<\/p>\n<p>Temps for the next several days are pretty seasonable for this time of year and we get some really nice skies to boot.<\/p>\n<p>The weekend continues to be a work in progress as we watch to see what happens with a couple of upper level systems diving into the eastern half of the country. These will try their very best to merge with a strong upper level system down in the Gulf of Mexico, lifting it to the north up the east coast.<\/p>\n<p>The models are still a few days away from settling on a solution as they are still pretty far apart. As a matter of fact, we are getting big swings with each model run and I expect that to continue for a bit longer.<\/p>\n<p>The latest GFS shows\u00a0 our southeastern system lifting north into the Carolinas before pushing to the east&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/GFS-19.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-62438\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/GFS-19.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"984\" height=\"808\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The Canadian is going for a bigger merger with the whole thing trying to go up the east coast&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/CANADIAN-2-1.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-62442\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/CANADIAN-2-1.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"984\" height=\"808\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The ICON is the model going for a full blown merger all the way back into our region&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/icon.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-62436\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/icon.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"984\" height=\"808\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The EURO is also trending strongly toward a much more phased look in the east&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/EURO-18.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-62445\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/EURO-18.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"984\" height=\"808\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>As I&#8217;ve said for a while now, winter lovers need this storm to come together and work up the eastern US instead of dillydallying around along the southeast coast. I do think this storm will come out instead of staying down there and I think it&#8217;s a monster of a storm.<\/p>\n<p>If we look at the surface reflection of the models, the GFS puts together a healthy system that brings some rain into eastern and southeastern Kentucky before it turns east&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/GFS-2-11.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-62439\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/GFS-2-11.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"984\" height=\"808\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The Canadian sees a stronger system dropping in from the northwest and turning this main low northward up the east coast. It also manages to throw out some winter weather under a smaller upper low spinning on top of us&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/CANADIAN-12.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-62440\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/CANADIAN-12.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"984\" height=\"808\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The new EURO bombs this system out up the east coast and even brings us a few flakes by early next week&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/EURO-2-3.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-62446\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/EURO-2-3.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"984\" height=\"808\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Looking farther down the road toward the end of the month and into January, we continue to find a strong signal for a stout second half of the winter. My winter forecast had a slow starting winter with December averaging above normal with only minimal snow. So, what&#8217;s happening so far this month was 100% expected. My forecast then brought in quite a bit of cold and snow threats for January and February with the potential lurking for a big event.<\/p>\n<p>The seasonal models we look at are backing up my forecast as they continue to transition toward a winter setup later this month before locking it in for January. The latest JMA January forecast shows a deep trough in the east as a ridge holds in the west&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/JMA-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-62432\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/JMA-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"488\" height=\"484\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/JMA-1.png 488w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/JMA-1-300x298.png 300w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/JMA-1-150x150.png 150w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 488px) 100vw, 488px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>That same look takes us through February&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/JMA-2-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-62433\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/JMA-2-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"488\" height=\"490\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/JMA-2-1.png 488w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/JMA-2-1-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/JMA-2-1-150x150.png 150w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 488px) 100vw, 488px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>This has been a constant signal from all of the seasonal models I look at and that includes the new UKMET for January through March&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/UKMET.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-62434\" src=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/UKMET.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"747\" height=\"483\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/UKMET.png 747w, https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/UKMET-300x194.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 747px) 100vw, 747px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Does it make me worry that all the seasonal models are now supporting my winter forecast from a few months ago? Yessssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss! &#x1f61c;&#x1f60e;<\/p>\n<p>I will have another update later today. Have a good one and take care.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Good Tuesday, folks. It&#8217;s inauguration day in Kentucky and the weather is looking seasonably cold, but really nice. This pattern hangs tough for the rest of the week before we track the potential of a big eastern US storm for the weekend. I&#8217;ll take a look at that possibility and looking farther down the road [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-62431","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","et-doesnt-have-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62431","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=62431"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62431\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=62431"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=62431"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=62431"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}