{"id":645,"date":"2011-12-28T22:54:05","date_gmt":"2011-12-28T15:54:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dev.kyweathercenter.com\/?p=645"},"modified":"2011-12-28T22:54:05","modified_gmt":"2011-12-28T15:54:05","slug":"arctic-shot-to-start-the-new-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?p=645","title":{"rendered":"Arctic Shot To Start The New Year"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good Wednesday evening gang. 2011 is going out on a rather tame note, while 2012 looks to ride into town on the arctic express. We have been highlighting this possibility for several days now and things appear to be right on track. What kind of snow will this bring our way? That’s still up in the air, but it should bring a heck of a snow shower and squall pattern if nothing else.

The GFS was the only model not showing a big trough in the east early next week, but it finally caved today…



It now matches what all other models have been saying for the past several days. The new European Model is even colder than any of it’s prior runs…



Folks, thats some cold stuff all the way deep into Florida! Taken verbatim, that’s one heck of a snow shower and squall pattern for Monday and Tuesday around here… especially with the Great Lakes being much warmer than normal.

A few days ago, I took a playful jab at the NWS in Jackson because their extended forecast discussions kept saying the European was wrong and had no support and that the GFS was the way to go. EVERY model has been supporting the European from day one and the GFS was the lone wolf in showing NO TROUGH.  The GFS looks almost identical to the European now.

This is from their morning discussion before the GFS flipped:

THE NEXT BIG ENIGMA IN THE EXTENDED COMES IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY PERIOD AS THE GFS…THE LIKELY SOLUTION…DEVELOPS A BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AS A STRONG VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE…A VIGOROUS LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT STRETCHES SOUTH INTO THE GULF COAST.
THE FRONT EXITS THE COAST BY TUESDAY AND THIS IS THE PROGRESSIVE AND
MOST LIKELY SOLUTION AS THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GFS AND EURO
SUPPORT THIS. THE MEMBERS OF THE NAO WOULD SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. THE
EURO HAS BEEN CONSISTENT BUT HAS NO SUPPORT FROM THE ENSEMBLES NOR
TELECONNECTIONS. IN THE EURO SOLUTION…A VERY DEEP AMPLIFIED TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY AND ALONG WITH IT…THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON. THE 28.00Z RUN OF THE EURO CONTINUES WITH THIS
SOLUTION AS WELL.

THEREFORE…AS STATED EARLIER…WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS.

I don’t even know where to start with that, so let’s move on to the afternoon discussion:

MODEL OUTPUT TAKEN AS A WHOLE DOES APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE SIMILAR SOLUTION…ESPECIALLYWITH THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH ITS SOLUTION.

Let me get this straight… it’s the European that’s now changing? WHAT? It shows the deepest and coldest solution it’s shown yet. I will give them that it’s more progressive. But did you notice there was NO talk of the GFS undergoing a drastic change and looking identical to the European?

I think someone has a future in politics or public relations. Spinning the weather doesn’t work… trust me I know from experience. What’s gonna happen is gonna happen and there is nothing we can do to change it.

What are the odds we see some new names from the Breathitt County region leaving comments after this post? Just don’t leave your real e-mail addresses this time guys.

Have a great evening and take care.<\/FONT><\/FONT><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Good Wednesday evening gang. 2011 is going out on a rather tame note, while 2012 looks to ride into town on the arctic express. We have been highlighting this possibility for several days now and things appear to be right on track. What kind of snow will this bring our way? That’s still up in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-645","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","et-doesnt-have-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/645","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=645"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/645\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=645"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=645"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=645"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}