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<\/p>\nGood Thursday, folks. Hurricane Helene is heading toward a Florida landfall later today before heading toward Kentucky on Friday. What’s left of this storm is set to bring flooding rains and high winds. Those high winds may cause some damage.<\/p>\n
Let’s start things out by talking about Helene then I’ll break down the impacts on our weather.<\/p>\n
Helene is a massive storm in terms of coverage and is continuing to intensify. Here’s the current satellite shot of the storm…<\/p>\n
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Helene will become a category 4 hurricane before making landfall late this evening near Apalachicola, Florida. From there, this zips northward across Georgia and into Tennessee by Friday morning. From there, the center crosses into southern Kentucky and then stalls across western Kentucky into Friday night.<\/p>\n
Here’s the latest information and track forecast from the National Hurricane Center…<\/p>\n
![\"cone](\"https:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/storm_graphics\/AT09\/refresh\/AL092024_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png\/152326_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png\")
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This storm is forecast to bring a life-threatening storm surge up to 20 feet for part of Apalachee bay…<\/p>\n
![\"[Image](\"https:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/storm_graphics\/AT09\/refresh\/AL092024_peak_surge+png\/213335_peak_surge.png\")
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Here’s a breakdown of what I expect from Helene here in Kentucky:<\/p>\n
In terms of the HIGH WIND THREAT<\/strong>, the models are all locked in on a significant wind event across much of the state, but there’s more of a bullseye on central and eastern Kentucky than the west.<\/p>\n The Hi Res NAM continues to be off the charts with hurricane force wind gusts…<\/p>\n It now has a few partners in the GFS and WRF which are also showing gusts pushing hurricane force…<\/p>\n The HRRR is right at 60mph…<\/p>\n So too is the NAM…<\/p>\n The EURO has some 60-65mph gusts showing up…<\/p>\n All of those models are well into the High Wind Warning criteria for much of central and eastern Kentucky. With leaves on the trees and a soggy ground, watch out, a lot of trees may come down.<\/p>\n Those are the kind of winds one would expect with such a potent storm system. The GFS is forecasting this low to be at 979 millibars as it enters southern Kentucky Friday morning…<\/p>\n As you can see, that would equal out at 28.91″ on the barometer. For perspective’s sake and to show how we are in rare air, Lexington’s all time record low barometric pressure is 28.82″ during the January blizzard of 1978. Our pressure has only dropped below 29″ on 3 occasions, including the March 3, 2023 windstorm.<\/p>\n For the FLOOD THREAT<\/strong> part of the storm, my concern is the models are underestimating rainfall totals. This is something that’s common with landfalling tropical systems, so let’s keep this in mind going forward.<\/p>\n All the models are increasing rainfall numbers as we get closer to this setup. The GFS is now showing many areas with 5″-6″ over the next few days…<\/p>\n This is something the Canadian has been locked in on for a while and it continues to spit out these kinds of numbers…<\/p>\n The EURO has some 5″+ amounts… The NAM only goes through Saturday night but it’s also seeing the potential for some 5″-6″ rain amounts…<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/NAM-2-4.png\")
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