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<\/a><\/p>\nThat’s just the first call and, likely, won’t be the last as this system comes into better focus tonight and Monday.<\/p>\n
The NWS in Charleston, WV continues to be on top of their weather game compared to all other NWS offices that cover Kentucky. They are already out with a Winter Storm Watch for their 4 northeastern Kentucky counties…<\/p>\n
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Watch this system move in on the future radar from the Hi Res NAM. This animation goes from 1am Tuesday through 1am Wednesday…<\/p>\n
You can see the lines of heavy snow, mix and plain old heavy rain showing up very well there.<\/p>\n Many of the forecast models now have totals exceeding my forecast and that’s a trend to watch with the next few runs.<\/p>\n The Hi Res NAM snowfall has some hefty numbers…<\/p>\n The NAM is above and beyond those numbers and likely overblown and too far north…<\/p>\n That said, the GFS has similar totals but is likely too far south…<\/p>\n The Canadian models have been really good this winter and are way, way under what those models are showing…<\/p>\n The ICON has a similar line of thinking…<\/p>\n The UKMET, however, is more in line with the heavier snow numbers…<\/p>\n The latest EURO seems like a good compromise…<\/p>\n So, after looking at all available model data, why wouldn’t we have a Winter Storm Watch for more than just 4 counties in the northeast? I dunno.<\/p>\n Additional systems show up behind this with flooding rains a really possibility and I have no changes on the next week of flood potential…<\/p>\n At this point, issue a Flood Watch from Tuesday and let it run through next weekend.<\/p>\n This active pattern rolls through the next two weeks with more heavy rain and winter weather chances. The Ensembles look show the additional snow threats…<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n