The future radar from the HRRR runs from this afternoon through 8pm Sunday and shows our system well… As mentioned, winds are the big factor with widespread gusts topping 40mph. Some of the models continue to point toward some 50mph gusts…<\/p>\n Those winds come in two BIG bursts with the first arriving with the front late tonight. The second as low pressure cranks and pulls away to our north on Sunday.<\/p>\n In terms of the severe threat, the greatest risk continues to be in the west. That’s where the Storm Prediction Center continues with the Slight Risk today. The Marginal Risk extends farther east into parts of central Kentucky…<\/p>\n Damaging wind is the main threat…<\/p>\n There is also a low-end tornado risk in the west…<\/p>\n The SPC does have a Marginal Risk for Sunday morning severe storms in the east…<\/p>\n This is one stout temp drop from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon and evening…<\/p>\n Areas of upper 30s likely show up by Monday morning…<\/p>\n Some patchy frost is possible in the sheltered valleys, but the winds won’t fully calm down which means wind chills will show up…<\/p>\n The next system then slides through here on Tuesday unleashing the coldest air mass of the fall season, so far…<\/p>\n Lows will be deep into the 30s with a widespread frost potential Wednesday and\/or Thursday mornings.<\/p>\n The trough digging into the eastern half of the country has been on my radar for a while now and it continues to show up well on the operational models and the various Ensembles like the GFS…<\/p>\n It’s interesting to note some of the recent runs of the GFS Ensembles have been showing flake action during that time…<\/p>\n I continue to watch the evolution on the EURO Weeklies as they continue to trend toward a very active November that may get winter started a little early. The overall forecast continues to be remarkably consistent but the trough in the east shows up a little stronger with each run.<\/p>\n Here’s the weekly breakdown of the 500mb height anomalies from the EURO Weeklies…<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n The signal is for an active November with above normal precipitation…<\/p>\n You can clearly see an active Ohio Valley storm track with that. I do expect some of that to fall in flake form and so do the Weeklies…<\/p>\n I’m liking this early season pattern as you can probably tell by the length of me recent posts. Y’all know I like my winter early!!<\/p>\n I will have updates as needed today and on my\u00a0Meteorologist Chris Bailey Facebook Page<\/a><\/p>\n Until then, here are your storm tracking tools for the day\u2026<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/HRRR.gif\")
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