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<\/a><\/p>\nThe Thanksgiving Week setup continues to be one that begins the transition into winter. We have rain arriving later Monday into Tuesday as temps run mild still. This is ahead of a sharp cold front moving in late Wednesday into Thanksgiving morning. That boundary may have a wave of low pressure along that can bring a few showers and a flake. The chance for a disturbance right behind that is still there for Black Friday.<\/p>\n
The GFS sees the wave of low pressure but doesn’t really see many flakes as the cold crashes in…<\/p>\n
The Canadian has less wave along the boundary but sees the disturbance behind it with the light snow to our north…<\/p>\n The Parallel Canadian is probably closest to the model that matches my thoughts as it does see a stream of some flakes with the Black Friday disturbance…<\/p>\n The EURO continues to feature the wildest swings from run to run. The model doesn’t think too much of the Thanksgiving cold front because the model is suddenly developing a low behind it that runs through the northern Ohio Valley…<\/p>\n I’ve talked about a southeast ridge offering some initial resistance to this major pattern change and that’s still the case. My last post lamented about an early December signal for a strong storm system that I believe can bring us heavy rain and storms to some snow. Sure enough, some of the models are seeing that as the arctic cold wins the fight…<\/p>\n If we take a look at the latest forecasts of the\u00a0Madden-Julian Oscillation,<\/strong>\u00a0or\u00a0MJO\u00a0<\/strong>we find all the long range forecasts looking pretty similar. Now, these charts are really hard to decipher if you don\u2019t know what you\u2019re looking for. Let me give you a brief description\u2026 We have 8 phases of the MJO and those are numbered on the outer edge of the chart. The main squiggly line is the forecast line. The black part of the line is where the MJO has been. The colorful parts of the line show the forecast out in time. The numbers along the line show the corresponding dates for the next month.<\/p>\n The GFS Extended forecasts the MJO into Phase 7 to start December and then into Phase 8 by the middle of the month…<\/p>\n The EURO Weeklies are faster into Phases 7 and 8…<\/p>\n What do the corresponding temperature maps typically look like in those phases? Cold for much of the nation in December…<\/p>\n That looks a lot like what the EURO Weeklies are seeing as they continue with coast to coast colder than normal temps for December…<\/p>\n The Control Run of the EURO Weeklies shows the potential I’m worried about…<\/p>\n The extended models continue to go all in on the potential for a lot of winter in December. The GFS Extended goes through Christmas Eve and likes the snow potential…<\/p>\n The EURO Weeklies go a little farther out in time but also show a lot of snow chances…<\/p>\n I will have another update or two later today and, of course, I\u2019ll have updates on my\u00a0Meteorologist Chris Bailey Facebook Page<\/a><\/p>\n Until then, here are your tracking tools for the day\u2026<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/p>\n