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<\/a><\/p>\nDamaging wind is the primary player with any storm cluster that moves through.<\/p>\n
Today’s best chance is to our north and northwest and this is where the Storm Prediction Center has outlined in the Today’s Severe Weather Outlook…<\/p>\n
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The threat will really expand late tonight into Monday and includes the entire region. Here’s Monday’s Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center…<\/p>\n
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The tornado risk from these storms is on the low end…<\/p>\n
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The potential for damaging wind is, without question, the greatest threat for our part of the world…<\/p>\n
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The large hail threat is fairly low…<\/p>\n
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The potential for a few strong to severe storms will be with us again on Tuesday, especially in the east. Here’s the Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook from the SPC…<\/p>\n
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Temps come way down behind all this for the second half of the week with another cold front arriving as we begin August.<\/p>\n
As you know by now, we have a developing Super El Nino out in the Pacific Ocean. The well above normal ocean waters near the Equator are very evident…<\/p>\n
This is may very well become the strongest El Nino on record before all is said and done. That’s just one of the wild cards with this particular event. If it goes above and beyond the previous supers, how does that correspond to the actual weather pattern across the globe?<\/p>\n For me, the bigger wild card for this Super is the base state of the world’s oceans being much warmer than during any previous Super. I have little doubt this has to be factored in, but we really have very little idea as to what extent or what the end result will be on the apparent weather across the Northern Hemisphere, let alone here in the USA.<\/p>\n This developing Super is already behaving differently than the last 3 super El Ninos. Take a look at the temp anomalies so far this month…<\/p>\n The prior 3 Supers occurred in 2015, 1997 and 1982 and all had similar looks to one another through this same time in July. Notice how all 3 had much cooler than normal July’s for much of the country…<\/p>\n As you can see, the weather this July doesn’t really match up with what we should be getting in a developing Super. If this trend should continue throughout the rest of summer and into fall, it would most certainly have implications with the upcomiung winter.<\/p>\n Here’s a look at what the average temp anomalies look like from the winters of 2015\/16, 1997\/98 and 1982\/83…<\/p>\n You can clearly see how those were blowtorch winters for much of the country, especially in December of each year. All 3 did give us a big winter storm later in winter, but that was about it for snowfall.<\/p>\n If we look ahead with the latest seasonal models, we find them all in agreement that this winter would deviate from the other supers. Here’s the latest CFS temp anomaly forecast for December through February… The same time period from the NMME looks similar…<\/p>\n As does the latest EURO Seasonal…<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n