{"id":795,"date":"2010-12-10T00:46:00","date_gmt":"2010-12-09T17:46:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dev.kyweathercenter.com\/?p=795"},"modified":"2010-12-10T00:46:00","modified_gmt":"2010-12-09T17:46:00","slug":"burst-of-light-snow-for-some-tonight","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/?p=795","title":{"rendered":"Burst Of Light Snow For Some Tonight"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good evening gang. I know all the focus is on the winter storm that will impact the region this weekend… but that little band of light snow we have talked about for several days now will show up tonight for some areas. The main threat for a period of light snow will be late tonight into very early Friday across northern Kentucky.

Anybody can see a few flurries during this time… but areas along and north of I-64 will be fair game for a light accumulation of snow late tonight. Areas along the Ohio river from Covington to Ashland stand the best chance for a little snow on the ground in time for the morning commute.

A lot of the stuff on regional radar is not hitting the ground as of right now…

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Everything is still on track for the weekend storm and there is a chance of an upgrade for parts of the state. The models are showing a quicker transition from rain to snow Saturday night and some very good backlash snows for Sunday and Monday. The winds, snow and arctic cold will be something to behold for many areas.

The NWS in Jackson had a great write up on the weekend storm in their afternoon discussion…

…POTENT WINTER STORM STILL ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY…

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FRUSTRATINGLY INCONSISTENT WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM. EVEN RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS
BEEN HORRIBLE. SPECIFICALLY…THE ECMWF HAS FLIPPED FROM A NORTH TO
SOUTH SOLUTION AND BACK OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS WHILE THE GFS MADE A
TRANSITION TO AN EXTREME NORTHERN STORM TRACK THAT REMAINS AT ODDS
WITH THE NAO AND AO INDICES ALONG WITH OTHER GUIDANCE. ACCORDINGLY
HAVE MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH OUR GRIDDED FORECAST AS MUCH AS
POSSIBLE. IN REALITY THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES…WHILE LARGE…WILL NOT
MAKE THAT MUCH OF A MATTER IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER. THIS IS DUE
TO THE FACT THAT TIMING FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC AIR AND THE
BRISK\/GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANYING IT ALONG WITH THE RESULTANT SFC
AMPLIFICATION TO THE EAST WILL BE ROUGHLY THE SAME IN ALL SCENARIOS.
THE DIFFERENCES WOULD BE MOST NOTABLE IN THE SUNDAY\/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME WITH QPF AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS. WHILE A FOCUS FOR MOST OF THE
PUBLIC…THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 2 INCHES OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
AND 4 INCHES ARE NOT THAT LARGE IMPACT WISE COMPARED TO THE
ACCOMPANYING WEATHER. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE LOWER
END AMOUNTS IN KEEPING WITH THE INCONSISTENCY OF THE MODELS. STILL
EXPECT TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS LASTING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
EAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK WITH ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS OF
THE LIGHT AND FLUFFY VARIETY GIVEN THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES…AGAIN
OF LESS CONSEQUENCE THAN NORMALLY INDICATED BY THE IDEA OF
ACCUMULATIONS.

SPECIFICALLY FOR THE UPPER LEVEL MODEL ANALYSIS…THIS CYCLE OF RUNS
PLACES THE GEM WITH THE SLOWEST AND MOST SOUTHERN SOLUTION BRINGING A
BRIEFLY CLOSED TROUGH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS REMAINS MOST OPEN AND FASTER BY ABOUT SIX
HOURS WITH THE LATEST ECMWF IN BETWEEN. INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THEY ALL
EVOLVE THE TROUGH INTO A DEEP AND LARGE FULL LATITUDE ONE WITH
VARIOUS PLACEMENTS FOR THE ACTUAL CLOSED CENTER…GFS FURTHEST
NORTHEAST AND DEEPEST WHILE THE GEM AND ECMWF SPIN THEIRS CLOSER TO
EAST KENTUCKY. WHETHER THESE CENTERS HOLD IN PLACE OR RETROGRADE INTO
TUESDAY…THE VERY DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL PIVOT JUST
NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY MAINTAINING STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW FED BY LAKE
AND SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE RIGHT INTO OUR FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS. THE
PATTERN STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH
ROLLS OVER ON ITSELF AND LIFTS SLOWLY OUT OF THE AREA. HOWEVER…THE
REPRIEVE FROM PCPN WILL BE BRIEF AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LOOKS TO
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR THURSDAY.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER…THERE IS A CONCERN THAT THE RETURN OF
MOISTURE AND PCPN ON SATURDAY WILL SEEP IN FAST ENOUGH TO CATCH THE
COLDER VALLEYS AND COMBINE WITH RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO WETBULB FOR A
TIME. ACCORDINGLY…HAVE ADDED A POSSIBILITY OF MIXED PCPN WITH SLEET
AND A TOUCH OF FREEZING RAIN TO THE GRIDS EARLY SATURDAY. THE RAIN
AND WARMTH MOVING NORTH WILL WIPE OUT THE COLD POCKETS QUICKLY ON
SATURDAY AND RESULT ALL RAIN OVER THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY INTO THE
NIGHT…THOUGH THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN WILL BE SLOWED IN THE FAR EAST.
THE SLIGHT TIMING UNCERTAINTY OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THE ACTUAL
TRANSITION TIME TO SNOW DEPICTED IN THE GRIDS…BUT THE GIST IS THE
SAME REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL EVENTUALLY VERIFIES. RAIN WILL QUICKLY
MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO AND THROUGH THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SNOW CONTINUES. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST WINDS
ACCOMPANYING THE ARCTIC FRONT AND IN ITS WAKE WILL BLOW THE SNOW
AROUND AND LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES WELL BELOW A MILE.

NEEDLESS TO SAY…SUNDAY WOULD CERTAINLY BE A GOOD DAY TO STAY AT
HOME. THERE ALSO IS A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POST FRONTAL
DRY SLOT AND THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE SYSTEM\/S WRAP AROUND
SNOW LATER ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT…BUT IT WILL MOVE IN BEFORE
TOO LONG AND ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO PICK UP AGAIN FOLLOWING A BRIEF
REPRIEVE. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE FOR OUR UPSLOPE
AREAS…MOST OF THE CWA…WELL INTO TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN THE FAR EAST LIKELY TO SEE THE MOST ACCUMULATIONS OF THE FLUFFY
SNOW…BUT PROBABLY STILL MEASURED IN JUST AN INCH OR TWO
ACCUMULATION PER A TWELVE HOUR PERIOD. THE WINDS AND THE BITTER COLD
AIR WILL ALSO YIELD WIND CHILLS TO AROUND OR BELOW ZERO AT TIMES FROM
LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

REGARDLESS OF IF THE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY TAKES A TRACK THAT MINIMIZES
THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWS THIS STORM IS ONE NOT TO
BE TRIFLED WITH. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OR THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS FORECAST AS THE
STORM PATH BECOMES CLEARER.

Mr. Greif is a heck of a forecaster and his words carry a lot of weight with yours truly. I will have a full update later tonight and will give some quick updates via twitter. Take care.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Good evening gang. I know all the focus is on the winter storm that will impact the region this weekend… but that little band of light snow we have talked about for several days now will show up tonight for some areas. The main threat for a period of light snow will be late tonight […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-795","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","et-doesnt-have-format-content","et_post_format-et-post-format-standard"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/795","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=795"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/795\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=795"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=795"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kyweathercenter.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=795"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}