Good Tuesday folks and thanks for dropping by the blog. Today marks an even dozen for consecutive days of snow and cold across the state. It has been an amazing run of sub freezing temps and frequent snows and has been a throwback to some of the good old days. A dozen seems like a good number to end that streak on and that is exactly what old man winter is going to do as the famed January Thaw is ready to begin.
This pattern is going out in style as with a weak system that is causing some nasty travel out there early today for some areas. A mix of freezing drizzle and snow moved in last night leading to some ugly road conditions. Light snow will be the dominant player early this morning before tapering off the snow showers and flurries. Track it all here…
Temps today will be cold again as highs stay in the 20s. Gusty winds will make it feel colder than that.
Our pattern will begin to change some by Wednesday as we actually have a chance to crack the freezing mark for the first time this year! It is not a given that we will do it… but we have a pretty good shot under partly sunny skies.
Thursday and Friday will see high pressure in control of our weather. Temps will warm toward 40 and into the low 40s for some as partly sunny skies roll on.
It is once into the weekend that we be watching a storm coming out of the Gulf of Mexico. This will be a pretty strong system that rolls northeast toward the Carolinas. Normally, that would be a good track for a big snow around here. The problem is we won’t have enough cold air around to produce snow. Temps will be chilly with highs in he mid and upper 30s this weekend with the threat for some rain. There is a shot at a little snow TRYING to mix in at times. The GFS Ensembles show how the cold retreats as our storm passes by this weekend…
There is even a chance this storm gets pushed farther to the south and only throws back a few light showers into the region. Either way… I wouldn’t mind some rain to wash the salt off my car. 
The overall pattern into next week is one that takes on a more normal temperature look to it. This will give much of the country the chance to thaw out for a bit. I say for a bit because all signs are pointing toward us going back into a very cold one toward the last week of the month into February. The GFS has been hinting at this for a few runs now and it backs up my thoughts…
January 26th
From everything I am seeing… February has a shot to get pretty nasty for much of the country. Moral of the story… winter is just taking a break for a week and a half or so. 
On a side note… I am WAAAAAY behind on email so don’t be upset if I haven’t emailed back yet. Between work, the busy weather and the holidays… your friendly weatherdude has about 6 weeks or so of email backup to get to. Hang with me.
I will update as needed so check back. Take care.
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Was there a Jan thaw in 1976/77 or 77/78?
Here in Versailles we got notta so the dome continues its grip across my neck of the woods. Cold rain this weekend folllowed by flurries. De Ja Vu
Ended up with all snow it looks like none of that ice thankfully at my house another forecast nailed by Chris.
and a perfect and i mean perfect raack gulf storm and not enough cold air, now I KNOW SOMETHING NOT RIGHT.
that doesnt make since, it should still be snow with that perfect track and temps in mid 30s.
folks NO OLD SCHOOL THIS YEAR and I for one say no repeat of the last 12 days in FEBUAURAY EITHER!! SO ROLO is against that and I wont 40s and rain.
I need to retract part of that. The dome did release it’s grip for a couple of days and gave us 4-5 inches. Despite being below freezing during that time the grass is starting to show through. I believe now that we are going back into a typical pattern of Kentucky winter. By that I mean the past 11 years. I’ve been Bubba-tized.
Any non-treated roads in Corbin are very slick and hazardous. The drive into work this morning was more than interesting. Salted roads were fine, but side roads were very difficult to drive on. Glad you missed the freezing rain/drizzle Andy, but we didn’t :(.
NOr did we. Got up to a skating rink this morning with light snow falling on top of it. (That was probably the best part, since it helped with a little traction.) temp is 23, with light snow falling. Got out of my vehicle at work and skated to the door. People it is SLICK if it ain’t been treated.
Please be careful out there! Thanks, Chris, for the update!
at least it didn’t knock out power
it was slicker today than any day we had so far this uyeart cause of the freezing DRIZZLE, GEIZZLE from the hizzle.
hey if u like to be popart of a great board come join us at e-ponies.com wed thru sunday for great horse racing winners. im on FIRE at GULFSTREAM.
That’s so true. I am grateful for that!!!
Thanks Chris for the update! I’m ready for 70s/80s myself!! BBQs, flip flops and shorts! 🙂
I saw yesterday runs, EURO, CAN, JMA keeps the gulf storm hanging til Sunday.. then pushing it into WESTERN KY as the GFS is the only one sending it out to sea. I believe the HPC model is a shadow of the GFS, it has it heading off the coast of the Carolinas as well.
The 6z GFS has the COLD returning as the storm is exiting the Carolinas. It’s gonna be really interesting how that normal westerly trend plays into the storm and if the models continue to bring cold reinforcement. IF I was a betting man, (#1 I’d be BROKE, lol)But, I’d bet this is another one that the models will miss.
Well I for one am ready for the snow to stop…(for awhile) It’s snowing now…not just flurries, the parking lots and cars are turning white. I’m tired of being cold!!!
The roads here in Williamsburg are just awful. If you don’t have to get out then definitely don’t! The road is iced over and now the snow is falling on top of it. Have a great day everyone and thanks Chris for all you do.
Pretty healthy snow shower going on in Downtown Lex right now – starting to cover things up pretty nicely. We’ve officially had at least a trace of snow every day this year except one! I hope after this thaw we get some real deep long-lasting snow – makes you appreciate warmth all the more whe you get it!
WWA now in effect until 4 pm today snowing in Williamsburg.
Snowing hard here at East Point. Reports are that roads are extremely slick.
Paintsville had a freezing rain and then snow, like Coffeelady’s area.
Everyone please be careful.
CB, I like your choice of movies for the cold analogy. Lee Marvin was one of my favorite actors.
His performance in Cat Ballou was just awesome!
For all the folks wondering who and what I’m talking about…yes, I am older than dirt. 🙂
Is it me or are the radar returns showing the snow shower activity pushing west? It is either that or the radar decided to all of a sudden pick up some of the lighter stuff flying out there giving it the appearence it is pushing west….
Madison County (1 Alert )
Special Weather Statement
Issued by The National Weather Servicee
…LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
A BAND OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW WILL MOVE SOUTH- SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THE SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES FROM TIME TO TIME AND SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN GENERAL…ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SNOW MOVE THROUGH SHELBY…FRANKLIN…ANDERSON…WOODFORD…AND FAYETTE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AND SNOW FALLING…SLICK SPOTS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON AREA ROADWAYS…ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL TODAY…USE CAUTION AND SLOW DOWN. ALLOW YOURSELF EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.
Madison County – Berea
Light Snow – (backroads off of 25 are starting to turn white)
23.9°
Vegas probably would not give odds on a sure thing.
Snowing in Pikeville 20 degrees and iced over now the snow is covering the ice.
The first band of snow that moved through last night gave my area almost 1″ of new snow, been snowing pretty good off and on this morning as well with well over 1″ of new snow on the ground..
I think I’m ready for a week or two of Jan. thaw myself, Its time for the kids to GO BACK TO SCHOOL and get outside and play !!!!
Looks like the entire JKL..area is under a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY !!
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON…
* LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY…TAPERING TO FLURRIES
LATE IN THE DAY.
* LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN MOST
LOCATIONS DURING THE DAY.
* THE SNOW WILL FALL ON TOP OF A THIN GLAZE OF ICE LEFT BY FREEZING
DRIZZLE DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN UNTREATED SURFACES
BEING VERY SLICK.
Snowing hard here in Northern Mercer county. 127 is clear but side roads and parking lots are covered.
Those of you,
who are in fear,
of the warmth,
that is near,
The GFS says,
dont you fear!
because the polar plunge,
will reappear!!…
………….
at least by the 26-28th of this month, we’ll be back in the ice box again…SOOO..I say BBQ PARTY AT VINNY’S HOUSE!!!!!
I’m all about getting above freezing for a while. Tired of breaking ice for the livestock and I’m sure they’d like to get a decent drink that’s not frigid.
Here in carter county it is still snowing pretty good. We have a good solid inch so far, & the roads are horrible. I’m wondering if the kids will even be able to go back to school tomorrow, they’ve been out a week today. If were not gonna see any sun & temps won’t be warm enough, i dont see how anything is gonna melt,i think they’ll have one more snow day before they finally get to go back.
Heavy snow showers here in Leslie Co. up to 2 inches have fallen this morning. Leslie County always does well in upslope flow. Roads are treacherous.
just FYI; we went to school 1 day after Christmas break in 1978 and missed the entire month of January.
that was in Laurel County.
We had a pretty good burst of snow move through the downtown/campus area of Lexington about 45 minutes ago and it turned everything white again! It sure was a snowlovers dream…. all big, white and flakey!!!! It’s been a good run over the last few days! Reminds me of the old-time winters!!!!
The Sun/Mon storm looks too surpressed on the 12z GFS. It doesn’t show the freezing line pushing it out to sea? I just hope this isn’t ICE! Let’s prepare for the worse case scenario (NO POWER). I don’t want to scare anybody, but we definately need to keep an eye on this blog for Chris’s updates.
12z GFS
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_120m.gif
New 12z HPC
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif
This shows .50 qpf on the ONSET of the storm and PLENTY heading N/NE/E
DGEX has it going out to sea, but it also shows snow coming down from the NE, another blocker?
Classic! COld air hangs around 12 days and then leaves when significannt moisture arrives. Hmmmm, tat sounds pretty familiar, but I will spare you of the Bubba formula for our winter 😉
Come on folks, come to the dark side. It only gets wet around here when warm. It’s a dry cold 😉
Cold air hangs around 12 days and then leaves when significannt moisture arrives. Hmmmm, that sounds pretty familiar, but I will spare you of the Bubba formula for our winters 😉
Come on folks, come to the dark side. It only gets wet around here when warm. It’s a dry cold 😉
If I’m not forgetting.. this is 6 days in a row with snow, 10 days in a row below freezing, and we are still 14 degrees below average for the month. What a start to the new decade!
Yea, keep patting yourself on the back. If you’re so good you wouldn’t be getting on here with a name like BubbaG, you would actually be forecasting it.
Stupid is what stupid does.
There’s an old saying to wish in one hand and crap in the other and see which hand fills up first. I’ve been wishing for snow for too long. I am going over to the dark side side. Central Ky cannot combine cold and mouisture.
actually 9th day in a row with snow
Season to date we are actually above normal snowfall and below normal temps and it’s Jan 12th…….Hello
oops a little blunder at nws lmk today.
Saturday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30.
liquid rain and 30???
ONLY in Kentucky!? lol 😀
Testy, aren’t we? 😉
To calm you down, might I quote the maany ways shrimp can be prepared? It is the fruit of the sea, you know 🙂
What am I forecasting? The Bubba theory of big snow events is documented fact due to results. No forecast, just the facts.
As MikeM says- ANYONE can forecast the low end of events. Especially when you have eleven years of them in regards to gulf fed events. Unless we want to count our two major ice events from those same gulf systems.
Nothing special forecasting on trends- everone has the powwa!. Anyways, there is shrimp gumbo, fried shrimp, shrimp cocktails, shimp cakes, grilled shrimp, shrimp fajitas, shimp pasta, shrimp salad, shrimp…. oh heck already- there are a bunch, OK?
A little testy, aren’t we? 😉
To calm you down, might I quote the maany ways shrimp can be prepared? It is the fruit of the sea, you know 🙂
What am I forecasting? The Bubba theory of big snow events is documented fact due to results. No forecast, just the facts.
As MikeM says- ANYONE can forecast the low end of events. Especially when you have eleven years of them in regards to gulf fed events. Unless we want to count our two major ice events from those same gulf systems.
Nothing special forecasting on trends, but regression models depend on it big time. Still, everyone has the powwa’ forecasting on trends! Anyways, there is shrimp gumbo, fried shrimp, shrimp cocktails, shimp cakes, grilled shrimp, shrimp fajitas, shimp pasta, shrimp salad, shrimp…. oh heck already- there are a bunch, OK?
A little testy, aren’t we? 😉
To calm you down, might I quote the maany ways shrimp can be prepared? It is the fruit of the sea, you know 🙂
What am I forecasting? The Bubba theory of big snow events is documented fact due to results. No forecast, just the facts.
As MikeM says- ANYONE can forecast the low end of events. Especially when you have eleven years of them in regards to gulf fed events. Unless we want to count our two major ice events from those same gulf systems.
Nothing special forecasting on historic trends, but regression models depend on it big time. Still, everyone has the powwa’ forecasting on trends! Anyways, there is shrimp gumbo, fried shrimp, shrimp cocktails, shimp cakes, grilled shrimp, shrimp fajitas, shimp pasta, shrimp salad, shrimp…. oh heck already- there are a bunch, OK?
Just a tad testy, aren’t we? 😉
To calm you down, might I quote the maany ways shrimp can be prepared? It is the fruit of the sea, you know 🙂
What am I forecasting? The Bubba theory of big snow events is documented fact due to results. No forecast, just the facts.
As MikeM says- ANYONE can forecast the low end of events. Especially when you have eleven years of them in regards to gulf fed events. Unless we want to count our two major ice events from those same gulf systems.
Nothing special forecasting on historic trends, but regression models depend on it big time. Still, everyone has the powwa’ forecasting on trends! Anyways, there is shrimp gumbo, fried shrimp, shrimp cocktails, shimp cakes, grilled shrimp, shrimp fajitas, shimp pasta, shrimp salad, shrimp…. oh heck already- there are a bunch, OK?
A cold rain. Specialty of the Bluegrass
Actually, according to where you live.
i thought he was talking about where i live since he didn’t specify 😉
bubba i agree. lexington will not see a major snowfall this winter, we just experienced our annual cold spell, but we did squeeze about 6” of snow out of it. here in nky we have about 4” on the ground still, headed home to lex on friday, betting on most snow being gone there as well as here too though.
Maybe they think the low will happen *after* the rain is gone? Or maybe the low will happen at midnight and warm up with a southern low coming before the rain gets here?
At my house in Nicholasville I am happy with the snow we got. We pushed close to 6″ from Thursday-Saturday although the cold has been a bit much. Today was a little cooler then yesterday. At my house we hit 30f yesterday and 28f today. Our low this morning was much warmer, only got down to 20f.
Jake
Ok Bubba you do live in Ky, this isn’t Canada or michigan or maine….seriously if you want a big snow everytime it comes a storm in the winter your gonna have to move….most of the big storms we have gotten big snows out of are one in a dozen over the past 50 years….yeah we have had winters that had several big snows but every winter isn’t going to be like that…..just because we had a cold spell and its gonna warm up now doesn’t mean we won’t get more cold and snow fellows….the winter has started colder than 77-78 when we got the big snows and most years had a warm up in january…the thaw….then it goes back cold….don’t give up so easy on a big snow we haven’t had a winter start like this one has in 10 years
**** LEXINGTON HAS HIT THE BIG SCREEN!! **…LOL…
If you all like to watch weather movies like I do, a new one has just come out I rented tonight at the REDBOX..called MEGAFAULT, about an earthquake/faultline which starts in WEST VA..and heads east into KY…LEX. is the center of a major 7.0 quake, with a major fault splitting the city…pretty cool movie, or at least I like it..lol..but I like all those types of movies…as far fetched and not so far fetched as some may or may not be…but I just thought it was cool that Lex. was shown,and fayette co. was mentioned. in this movie…If you like check it out…
The movie sounds awesome, I like those movies. I have a question for recording my temperatures. Okay, so our low this morning was 20, but it is now 14, so would our low for the day be 14 instead of 20?
Jake
hey i still get wkyt up here!!! tg’s 7 day had mid 40s by mid next week
what ever the low is up til 11:59pm tonight will be the low for the day..hope this helped
The westerly trend has begun..
0z GFS
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_108m.gif
We know the warmup is coming, but I think this will play a big part on the ground temps in northern and eastern Ky. Freezing rain?
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims_gif/DATA/prvsnow_usa.gif
Another note, For once..I don’t see the snowdome on here.
Tim.. I’m gonna have to watch that movie, I like them kind of movies too. Speaking of which, the death toll out of Haiti is going to be totally off the charts! Probably go down as one of the highest death toll in natural disasters of world history. 🙁
It did. I didn’t realize that because I have never seen that happen or noticed at least since I have been recording Lexington weather in November 2007. I can call it as 13f for our low at 11:59:59 and not our morning low f 20f.
Thanks.
these little snows are okay but if it aint going to really snow 10”+ i want 60s and sun
You hsave to look real close. There’s a tiny green dot right over Versailles. That’s the snowodme. Don’t know how you missed that.:)