Good Wednesday evening gang. The brand spanking new run of the NAM saw the morning run of the GFS and said… I will raise you! The 18z NAM came much farther west with the main precip shield with the southeastern US storm and would effectively bring a snowstorm to eastern Kentucky. Here is what it shows…
Please take that along with any one model run with a grain of salt! They won’t really hone in on this until tomorrow. Folks in central and western Kentucky shouldn’t worry too much about what the NAM is showing for you guys in the lack of snow department for Saturday as it is likely missing the boat on the disturbance moving in from the west.
All this does not include the late Sunday and Monday clipper which I am VERY impressed with. Hold on folks… it is going to be a fun next few days and weeks, for that matter! 
My title of the blog made me think of the old TV show… In Living Color. They had a skit about Funky Fingers Production… watch about the 1 minute mark of this…
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18z GFS is trending more west as well. Not to the extreme of the NAM..but the GFS does show snow showers through Monday Night..so its looking good!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_pcp_066m.gif
Now the bad news. 18z GFS showing what the 12z showed. A christmas eve rain washout that turns to snow showers christmas day….BOOOOOO!!!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_pcp_192m.gif
Thanks Chris for the update! I’m buckled up since Bubba has shotgun!! lol
The plus side.. didn’t this weekend storm had a track out to sea at one time? Besides, we have 192 hrs worth of flip flopping before we get to that one. 😉
you would buckle up if you were with me i just got a new corolla and its a standard, needless to say its like bumper cars to start and i am having to learn to drive all over again,
That would have to be a huge pattern of warm air to bust up next weeks snow chance, but not like the first time if that were to happen.
I AINT RIDIN IN THE BACK!!!…LOL…
LOL
IM WTH ROLO ON THE CHRISTMAS STORM…IM ON THE SNOOOOOOWWWWW TRAINNNNNNN!!!!!…
CAUSE HOMIE DA CLOWN DONT MESS AROUND!!!!…LOL….LOL….
Did you all notice that the 18Z GFS tries to develop a secondary low near KY this weekend? Wow this is getting exciting. This could be a storm that is an over-acheiver!
yep WXMAN that is major if we get a double barrlel low that means moisture from east low trowing moisture back into the other low, that means BLIZZARD!!!
now west trend will continue as well!!
CHRISTMAS STORM COLD AIR DIGGING IN WITH 6 PLUS INCHES ON GROUND SAYS SNOWWWWWWWWWWWWWW TRAIN. models will come around by weekend on that as well.
***AND IT BEGINS WITH THE FIRST WINTER STORM WATCHES BEING POSTED FOR N.C. MNTS… ****
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
507 PM EST WED DEC 16 2009
…SIGNIFICANT SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON…
.A COASTAL STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER
THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY SNOWFALL…WITH
PERIODS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON…STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TO 1 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS ADJACENT TO THE EAST FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES.
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…NEWLAND…SPRUCE PINE…ASHEVILLE…
HENDERSONVILLE…LENOIR…MORGANTON…MARION…LAKE LURE
507 PM EST WED DEC 16 2009
…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON…
Nice little snippet here from the Jackson NWS from their latest AFD:
OVERALL…POTENTIAL EXISTS TO ACCUMULATE SOME DECENT SNOW AMOUNTS
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT…ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO JUMP INTO EXACT TOTALS JUST
YET AND WILL MENTION LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HWO FOR NOW. THIS
TIME PERIOD DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING AS A HEADLINE OR TWO SEEMS
POSSIBLE.
I hope to see something similar for us tomorrow…. [sigh]
Just gotta keep an eye on the model runs throughout the night and tomorrow.
WOW!!!…ANYONE SEEN THE 22hr. run of the BAD??….WOW..IT SHOWS WHITE!!!WHITE!!!WHITE!!…:p:):p:):0:).LOL..LOL..LOL…I THINK ROLO HAS SLIPPED SOMETHING IN MY DIET COKE THIS EVENING…LOL…
look like my FIRST ANNUAL CHRISTMAS REDNECK bailey CLAUS FASTING IS WORKING,
if u missed previous post early today, well to long to repeat but u can find the details trhere.
Can’t see it till someone posts it!!! LOL!!
well first time in years it actually look solidly good for a decent snow tim, that reason enough to be high.
really ole buddy we have finally caught a break.
well and my back meds dont hurt my PUMP UP FEELING EITHER!! had to break over and eat oatmeal cookie so my meds dont hurt my stomack
hey MICHAEL S thanks for stopping by blog.
cappinwinners.blogspot.com
Love that big white area over Laurel County. I’m thinking white indicates 5 plus inches? If the models show some consistency, perhaps we get our first Winter Storm Watch of the season issued by this time tomorrow or Fri morning.
thats alright, I tore up a pan of Cornbread, soupbeans, and fried taters!!!! wooooweeee…thats about as good as seeing the NAM showing 6-8″ of snow in my back yard…LOL.. Had to make the kids pizza, whats a matter with this generation…lol…
hey MICHAEL S thanks for checking out my blog, cappinwinners.blogspot.com
white is 6-8 i think
Yeah, what Andy said… LOL 😀
what is the moderate blue over southern pike co?????
A whole lot of snow!!!!! Wish I lived there right now….!!!…LOL… over 6″
The dark blue represents approx 8-10″, the lighter of the blues represents approx 10-12″… or as Michael S says “A whole lot of snow!” 🙂
Hey now…it’s not the whole generation. My 7 yo prefers soup beans to pizza. Haven’t figured that one out yet! LOL!
no two gfs ensmbels are alike now for for the Christmas storm, don’t panic about half snow the other half rain.
I don’t expect another westward jog in the track on the 00z runs just my gut thinking in fact we’re due for a slight east shift. we shall see over the next hr or two.
Off topic here but keep Bengals Wide Receiver Chris Henry in your prayers. He’s suffering life threatening head injuries after falling out of the back of a truck and hitting his head on the ground. Rumors are saying they don’t expect him to make it. I know Chris is a Bengals fan as am I.
he was running after his fiancee after hitting here, he has been a thug and had so many chances. hate to say it but his luck has ran out.
godspeed to his family though.
Seen it earlier…tragic
well east ky may be the sweet spot for this winter you guys allready got that 2-4” snow a few weeks ago
its about time we got ours though
drum roll….00z run of the NAM coming in…
We’re not greedy…we’ll take a monster this time!!!..lol. Been high and dry for 10 winters down here! Time to makeup for winters past
Early signs on the 00z shows a westward trend 🙂 keep your fingers crossed
I remember learning to drive a stick shift. What fun! Not! LOL But, I got the hang of it, and it was smooth sailing after that. (or smooth driving). 🙂
my gut is so used to disapointment, I agree.
haha, id guess so
well 00z maybe not as wet,but it still showing snow ..
Still looks good to me on the NAM
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_pcp_054m.gif
well 00z maybe not as wet,but it still showing snow ..
here is the 48 hr..
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_pcp_048m.gif
maybe i was wrong, this is 54 hr..just in..still looks pretty wet,white to me, and maybe a bit farther back towards lexington area…
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_pcp_054m.gif
hello central ky looks to get some heavier snow according to the 0z nam!!!!!!!!!
NAM LOOKS GREAT TO ME TOO!!!!!
i think TIM needs some sleep.lol
yeah me too…:(
anyone wanna chat snow over at http://www.freaksters.com?
lexington would get 3-5” or so from that run!! eastern ky may get quite a bit if things align as they seem to be doing! good news is we are trending westward FOR snow about 2 days out not 7 days!!!
Uh oh, wetter,whiter,wetter….. and now a secondary low developing just to our SW, is this perfect or what.
been there done that earlier with Chasity missed out timmy
Meant wetter, whiter and farther west….. WWW lol.
this may start out as a period of rain though if highs are near 40 in the early afternoon.
Would this be a good time for a live chat or what?
Yes, yes, yes, Eric.
Upgrade to WINTER STORM THREAT coming with the next update.
Is this going to be another situation where I get excited 3 days out and then it goes further east, and we get nothing? I saw that too many times last year. I would stay glued to this blog and be all fired up for snow then BAM nothing. Sorry to be a downer. Just keeping it real.
Hey yall….U da man chris…..hope the grinch “printed this out” so he can refer to the butt whippin he took on this system as well….lol
LOL lex looks to get 2-4 or 3-4 either way i am confident!
WINTER STORM THREAT..???
What’s that..???
…
Wooooooo. Love me some Winter Storm Threat! Man, I miss this blog during the summer months. Glad it’s winter and I’m back in full force.
Its on like Donkey Kong Bigred….you better get a 3 month supply of Milk and Bread!
Praying for the big snow. However, i will be driving from London to Louisville for the Cards-Toppers game Sat nite. You guys think that L’ville will get in on the snow?
Been a while, hasn’t it Vinny.
Not sure about the snow in Louisville…but the basketball game might get ugly for the Cards!!…what has happend to Louisville? Ouch!
go WKU!!!!
Chris you know we will be waiting…
Wow! I spend a few hours away form the blog, and look what happens!!! It’s gone “white wild.” Chris,we need more info on this….and soon! trying ont to get excited, but……Winter Storm Threat??!?!?!!!?!?! I have a little more shopping to do, I need to know particulars……timing and such…..
THEN I will get excited!
We’ll be alright. It would be nice to have a John Wall or Cousins, but we have enough talent to finish in the top half of the Big East. Sorry guys, Toppers going down hard Saturday night. Payback for last year in Nashville.
LETS GET THIS PARTY STARTED!!!!!!!!
That’s that thing that happens everywhere BUT here! 😉
00z GFS coming in now and it looks like another westward shift. The only thing I would be concerned about is a too far westward shift and putting us in the warm sector. I’m not the expert on this, so can mitch, wxman, and others share your thoughts.
Woo-hoo! I’m so excited, I just can’t stand it.. Oh, that’s a song, lol.
Wow, a white Christmas big possibility!!!!
Some of us are in the freaksters chatroom if anyone’s interested…
http://www.freaksters.com
Don’t think it’s as much West as it is North. GFS brings the low into Georgia then scoots it off the coast. Still some decent QPF for Eastern KY but would love for a major westward shift, like say, 50-100 miles. Central Virginia is where the sweet spot is.
That’s the thing that happens everywhere BUT here…. don’t get used to it. 😉
My 2 cents on 0z.. East of I-75 and south of I-64 is gonna get the meat & potatoes, but the western disturbance looks to be pretty potent as well.. I think this is a common 2-4″ statewide with southeastern getting locally 6″+. I would like about a 100 mile westerly trend on the next few runs myself. We need a CB expert update! 🙂
yeah im gettin sleepy..
0z gfs is wet with qfp!!!
Channel 18 says about an inch in Lexington on Saturday as of now. It sounds like that could change based on comments here.
another thing about the sun night clipper, snow ratios 15:1 are possibile.
Mitch, what would that translate into in terms of potential accumulation?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_150l.gif
notice the high near detroit that will help hold the arctic air in and keep the storm track from cutting into the lakes.
an inch or two is fair game from the sunday night cliper. this weekend as a whole is setting up as one of snowiest in quite some time regionwide.
So, it would force it much further south? Would this start as rain then change to snow from Wed to Fri AM? Also, it could be snow, rain, then snow?
Oh, the weather outside is frightful, But the Cats are so delightful. And the Louisville fans should know. 10 & 0, 10 & 0, 10 & 0. They’re showing no sign of stopping-2000 wins we’ll soon be topping. While beating every top-10 foe, 10 & 0, 10 & 0, 10 & 0.
I’m thinking that snow ratios are sometimes just as important as how much is falling from the sky….seems like that has been the case before and I’ve heard that.
In that case…that Sunday night system could definately be the overachiever that CB is mentioning 😉
yes it would also increase the chance for freezing rain if there a considerable amount of waa.
Mitch does this mean we get rain or snow?
Can someone please help give me an idea as to what to expect for Bowling Green Friday-late Sunday pm based on what you have seen so far?
I would GREATLY appreciate your thoughts. My family and I will be attending a funeral there this weekend. I need to know what to expect and what to dress the family for. Thank you!
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