Good Wednesday everyone. Your friendly weather dude is having some internet issues right now so you will only get a brief update with a longer one to follow later today. Let’s break it down in headline style…
1. Today will be a cold one with morning temps in the upper teens to low 20s with afternoon highs in the low and mid 30s under sunny skies.
2. Temps will moderate a bit for Thursday and Friday. Highs will reach the upper 30s to near 40 Thursday and into the 40s for Friday.
3. The weekend will find one system diving in here from the northwest on Saturday. This happens as a big storm develops across the southeast. We will see light snow breaking out around here Saturday with light accumulations looking to be a pretty good bet. Highs will stay below freezing.
4. Snow showers and flurries will last into Sunday as we await a clipper moving in from the northwest. This will bring a swath of snow diving southeast toward us. Accumulations are likely along and north of the track of the clipper and we will need to watch to see where that is. This looks like a pretty potent little system. ![]()
5. Highs in the 20s will be common from Sunday into early next week.
6. Indications are that a big time storm may crank near Christmas across much of the eastern half of the country! ![]()
Ok… thats all you get until I get internet back. I will have a full update later today so check back. Take care.
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Thanks Chris! It’s beginning to sound a lot like (a white) Christmas!
Hope you get your internet back really soon, Chris.
Hay, it actually took my last post.
Good morning everyone! Stay warm and safe out there today.
Thanks for the great update, Chris!
yea look like as of now 1-3 inches is possible,
now if the low on the coast shifts some then different story.
the next few runs should start coming togther as far as a true track of the east coast low.
that wind is really really could out here in Knox County
GFS for Christmas eve look interesting… to say the least. 12 inch plus in east tenn.
EUROthen shows nothing but rain for christmas week. as storm moves to our west.lol
so ho hum, I bet on the rain if I put mulla on it.lol that is just the way our luck is.
Just wanted to repost this……….it’s stuck in my head and come on snow!!!!!!! 🙂 😀 🙂 😀 🙂
Oh, the weather outside is frightful … but the Cats are so delightful … All the others already know … 10 and 0, 10 and 0, 10 and 0!… Oh, they don’t show signs of stopping … and the fans are really hopping … getting ready for the next big show …. 10 and… 0 … 10 and 0… 10 and 0! ♪♪ GO CATS!!! [KEEP IT GOING!!]
Rain’s a safer bet!! LOL!!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_192s.gif
That is EARLY Christmas Eve morning…and the GFS is now coming around to the idea of a MAJOR Winter storm moving through the Tennessee Valley. Kentucky would see lots of snow IF it worked out this way. Timing will change but Christmas may be white!
Hope you get your internet going soon Chris.
The 6z has the Christmas storm back on it and in a BIG way too! 🙂
Thanks WXman and Bernie for the updates
What do our friends at the weather service in Louisville have to say about a white Christmas now?
I lIKE IT ..I LIKE IT ALOT !!!…:)
If you want snow for Christmas, the 06z run of the GFS is the one to root for!!! were talking a foot+ for alot of areas in Ky. and TN…check it out…
192hr. valid 12/24/09…
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_pcp_192m.gif
valid 204 hrs. 12/24/09
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_pcp_204m.gif
and by CHristmas morning, the entire mid-atlantic and ohio,and Tn. valley is snowed in!!!
valid 216 hrs christmas day 12/25/09
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_pcp_216m.gif
Chelle, you’re a poet and bon’t know it, but your feet show it……they’re Longfellows! 😉
Loved it!
these words from J.B. at accu. this morning…
2 Storms in the run up before Christmas, including one around Christmas Day. The idea of the nations most widespread White Christmas in many a year ( 2002 had an actual storm on Christmas day, and we should have that too, a second one that may leave snow in the west on the 22cnd, move into the plains the 23rd, midwest to Tennessee valley the 24th and then the east coast on Christmas day) is on the table
…………………..
SOUNDS LIKE FUN,FUN,FUN…TIL THE HEATMISER TAKES OUR SNOWMAN AWAY….:)
Wow! Well, Tim I will say this….I would not mind a huge snow like that, but I have to say, one of my daughters is travelling to Ohio next Wednesday, and coming back here for Christmas on Saturday….I really do NOT want her to be snowed in in Ohio! So, I hope that if this comes to pass, there is PLENTY of warning, so that travel plans can be changed.
Tim, that looks like a pretty decent storm…right now. Wish it would happen like that! But, if it does happen in some form, I hope there is plenty of notice. I have on travellign to Ohio on the 23rd, and back to our house on the 26th. I would really like for her to make it, and not get stranded!
All I can say is “WOW”!
Well, folks, maybe we should stock up on hot chocolate and be ready! Woo hoo! These forecasts sound better every time I come on here to read!
moving into the pre 192 hr range this chance is definetly starting to look more promising.the euro had a track further to the nw which would not be as good for us though.
here is snowcover Christmas morning, according to 06z run of GFS!
http://proa.accuweather.com/adcbin/professional/models_grads.asp?mt=06&mod=gfs&mv0=weasdsfc&gs=snow_new_noratio_dyn&mv1=5&cap=Accumulated%20Snowcover%205:1%20Ratio&uid=snowcover51a2&hr=loop&modctl=3&step=4&map=conus&gv0=A
I love it, too!
SORRY BAD LINK!!! PROBABLY WONT LOAD, ITS OFF A PAYSITE, MY BAD…
Hey Tim,
Do you like that website? I am thinking about signing up for it but I wanted to make sure you thought it was work the money. What all features does it have?
Yes I can’t wait to see the 12Z run. 8 days out is still real early on a Winter system….but if we start seeing a trend now at least we’ll know it’s on the table as a good chance.
ok I am going into the first annual Christmas with the REDNECKS at BAILEY CLAUS BLOG FASTING for OLD SCHOOL EDITION.
now this will consist of coffee, LACK OF SLEEP, WEATHER MODELS, first aid kit,COUNTRY CLASSIC MUSAC mostly Jones and Whitley, Chris THE LEGEND Bailey Claus TWITTER UPDATES!!
also am going thru my OLD SCHOOL CHECK LIST,
plenty of batteries, make sure GENERATOR is ready, First aid kit already mentioned. plenty of water/coffee.
back suplly of my blood pressure and diabetes meds. KY BASKETBALL SCHEDULE!! in case i get disoreintated u know.lol BREAD to feed the birds that is a have to with a OLD SCHOOL storm. snowblower so i can keep a path open to the car and or mule.
now I might end up fasting till I dehydrate and die, but man if I get payoff with a OLD SCHOOL it be worth it!!
ok and last but not least, plenty of hay for my 2009/10 WEATHER ANIMAL and that is a 9 year old TOM CAT named TOM.
he is a ole war horsew when it comes to TOMCATS,
oh on a side note, I had a momma cat who had kittens bout 2 month ago, I have kept 1 of them. its a boy.
and my brother just said u should name it BAILEY and I said ok.
so we now have a 2 month old TOMCAT named BAILEY as well!!!
Man, I was so excited to see that. The link wouldn’t work…sad day.
C’mon 12z GFS…you know you wanna be like your little brother the 6z GFS and show a snowstorm for us on Christmas Eve!
well I like it, and as far as features it has just about anything weather wise you could possibly ask for on it, but thats just my personal take on it…
12z run of the nam has shifted westward with the weekend storm (SLIGHTLY).bringing precip back into east Tn. and the ky./va. borders…and is giving parts of Va. a good ole fashioned wet snowstorm… Im curious as to what the 12z run of th GFS will offer…
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_060m.gif
me too Coffeelady! our boys live in the Dayton area, and I would rather be in my holler stranded, than a hotel room stranded!!! but we have a 4-wheel drive, and I know my hubby would give it a good go to head back home, cause there’s no place like my old KY home 🙂
yea the disturbance is really fizzled out and that a bummer,
that was our chance at snow getting kick back into it.
I am scared the ole westward trend has hit a wall as far as main low goes.
I am fully focused on next week storm unless something changes in models in next day or so for the weekend storm.
but it is still a bit interesting as it wouldnt take much of a shift to get in SE KY.
MJ…where you at bud?
12z GFS is showing slight west shift. Still looks as if most snow will be from front and not from Low out of the Gulf.
new GFS look ok for SE/E KY, it gets some moisture back in here unlike the NAM.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_066m.gif
12z GFS says… GAME ON!
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/f84.gif
yep was posting same thing as u type SHANE above. keep updates a coming since BAILEY having internet problems.
Its also showing a nice snow shower event as well http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_084m.gif
that me ROLO forgot my name.lol
DECEMBER TO REMEMBER!! JOE BASTARDI says its getting reafy to fire up big time!!!
NOT BACKING DOWN!! his video today is awesome to watch,
12z GFS also has decent snow shower event for Monday as well.
u can fine his video in the PLAINS,MIDWEST OV DEC 24TH 25TH thread on the weather forum board at accuweather.
was it Dan Seals that sang, HEADIN WEST.?? well any ways..lol..
Headin West, another town another place,
Headin West, with the snowflakes in my face,
Leavin snowdomes behind me,
im bound to scare the best,
I got the Gfs fooled,
cause I’m headin west!!!!….
thats exactly what the 12z run of the gfs is saying about the weekend storm, HOLD THE PRESS, CAUSE IM HEADIN WEST!!..
54 hr…valid friday
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_054m.gif
60 hr…valid saturday
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_060m.gif
66 hr. valid saturday
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_066m.gif
even up to the 84 hr… on sunday
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_084m.gif
12z Christmas storm looks wet instead of white now…still a huge storm but its cutting it to the lakes now instead. which would put us on the warmer wet side of things…FLIP/FLOP…still lots,and lots of time for it to FLOP back…
Doubt meter down to 10% for the Sunday through Christmas. Looking good for some white stuff:)
I know nothing about weather models, or maps. I just enjoy reading this blog. Are yall talking about snow for this weekend or the possible snow for Christmas Eve?
still a few days on the christmas storm don’t panic yet, even that over-amlified 12z run brings snow on the 25th.
anyone interested in seeing the snowfall map I tried to post earlier can go to http://www.accuweather.com click on Joe Bastardi’s video on the home page and he’s shows the midday Christmas day snow cover…and Ky is well, digging out if that plays out right…:)
its okay, you don’t have to know anything about weather. Many who think they know, are many times wrong. Its kind of like baseball–if you can “bat” 300 then you are a great player..If you can get 3 out of 10 forecast right, then you are “Awesome”!! So really, you can look at maps, think you know what could or should happen, and still miss the ball that is thrown to you.
well not worried one bit bout a lake cutter next week, BASTARDI describes it great it talking bout a low to south and one right on top of us moving ne as well.
the COLD AIR will keep the STORM next week from moving to far north and west for us, it going to TRACK PERFECT!! it will supress it into a p[erfect track!!
I havnt felt this good about a snowstorm in a long time, meaning all the players are going to be in place.
t
I have to disagree. The 12Z GFS shows RAIN for us on Christmas Eve now. It is a totally different ballgame from what it showed 6 hours ago.
I’m TIRED OF RAIN!
You’re right. The 12Z run at best would bring rain and heavy rain to us, followed by a flurry or two behind the front, at best. Then it shows some wild storm popping up on the Gulf coast and heading northeast. Just a weird looking run to me. Sigh… I figured as much. :O\
Yeah the 12z GFS did show Rain for Christmas Eve…but on a good note http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_288m.gif
LOL..in fantasy model land the 12z did show that for us!
sure, so u are saying by that run it will definitly be rain then. so u are on record right? cause yea the models will go back and forthssfd, but the COLD AIR in the end will be DUG IN!! and that will decide the track.
but I repect you seeing u are on RECORD NOW cause the latest GFS is rain. heck we all can see that.
there other model showing the SNOW, I am on record saying KY will have SNOW and a WHITE CHRISTMAS EVENT.
JKL is thinking light snow and snow showers this weekend
LONG TERM…/FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BOTH ARE REVEALING A MUCH
MORE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EVENT ON
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST MODELS HAVE A FETCH OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY…AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST…AND A VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE RESULT WILL BE A WIND
FLOW THAT WILL ALLOW MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF COLD AIR
WILL THEN MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN SET UP LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY…ALLOWING
FOR ANOTHER FETCH OF MOISTURE TO MIGRATE SOUTHEASTWARD OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN TENDS TO LEAD TO PERSISTENT AND LONG
LIVED LIGHT SNOW EVENTS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 0 AND 12Z ON SUNDAY…AS A STRONG
SHORT WAVE MOVES RIGHT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND INTO THE CAROLINAS.
WITH EVERYTHING LOOKING PRETTY FAVORABLE FOR SNOW…DECIDED TO
INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE BOARD FOR
SATURDAY…SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. MADE APPROPRIATED
ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF…WEATHER…AND SNOWFALL GRIDS BASED ON THE
CHANGES MADE TO THE POP FORECAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE
AREA…PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND WEST
VIRGINIA BORDERS. ALSO INCREASED HUMIDITY VALUES OVER THE
WEEKEND…AS WIDESPREAD LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PAST
SUNDAY MORNING WAS LEFT AS IS
BAiley CLAUS !! has a gift up top ^ (update..lol)
Here in Western Pulaski Co it has now switched over to snow temperatures still above freezing here roads are just wet for now.
I hope my writing will improve after having read this blog
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