Good Tuesday everyone and thanks for making The Center your choice for weather information. We have a heck of a nasty period of weather that begins today as a MAJOR storm cranks across the plains and heads toward the Lakes. This is a headline maker for a lot of areas of the country and may make some headlines around here.
Here is what to expect over the next few days…
– Heavy rains move in Today into Tonight. 1″-2″ will be possible in some spots.
– Temps will be chilly today with upper 30s but will rise into the 50s during the evening and last into Wednesday morning.
– Low pressure strengthens to our west and north creating possible damaging winds.
– HIGH WIND WATCH in effect for most of Kentucky for Wednesday. Gusts to 50+mph will be possible!!!
– Temps start in the 50s Wednesday then fall below freezing from west to east Wednesday evening.
– Backlash snow showers will move in for Wednesday night into Thursday with light accumulations possible.
– Windy and cold weather for Thursday with highs in the low and mid 20s and possible single digit wind chills!
One thing I am wondering is… can we get a touch of frozen precip at the very start of today’s rain? Hmm… You can keep track of it all right here..
Here is how the GFS looks with this storm…
This Evening
Wednesday Morning
Wednesday Evening
That is some wicked cold coming in behind the departing low. This could cause a few problems on the roads by Thursday morning and that is something we will watch for.
The rest of the forecast remains rather active…
Temps by Friday morning will really bottom out with 10-15 degree readings being common! Brrrrr. That brings us to the weekend snow and wintry mix threat which is gaining steam in my eyes. We will have low level arctic cold air in place as a storm system rolls almost due west to east to our south Saturday into Sunday. This is likely to have more moisture to work with and the models are likely to have problems with the arctic cold in place. They always try to move it out of the way too quickly and they usually fail! ![]()
This could lead to a decent snow and ice or mix threat for the weekend. Here is what the GFS is showing for snowfall Saturday…
That doesn’t include anything that comes Saturday night or Sunday. Again… it is showing this even as it tries to (likely in error) to scour out the arctic cold too quickly to give us a mix and snow. Watch the trends the next few days as I suspect the models grow colder and wetter for the weekend. ![]()
Here is another map that is cool to see… the amount of snow that will fall through Saturday across the country is insane…
Look at what a swath the plains will see from the blizzard that is raging out there the next few days. Wow!!! Folks.. this kind of snow pack can lead to a pattern locking in!!
By the way… keep an eye on early next week. ![]()
I will update things later so check back. Have a great day and take care!
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Hey CHRIS
Question……Do the 76/77 or 77/78 analogs show the snow pack building to the northwest in Dec as is happening now with this current storm in early Dec? Just curious 🙂
yep the ole LOW LEVEL COLD AIR the kiss of DEATH,
lexington north best chance at FREEZING PRECIP.
mainly cold rain here. but the dangerous weather could be in NC/SC and GA with the WEDGE of cold air building in with low dew points meaning there temps will fall and ICE is possibility there.
but them too look like a cold rain is more likly as of now.
my attention is Christmas week storm.
ohh THANKS ALOT CBC!! I still like somebody that can to fix a FACEBOOK SITE for BRING CHRIS BAILEY HOME to do the weather.
Yeah that’s true. Not only is this wind going to destroy lots of Christmas decorations (YES I said Christmas), but it will also create the potential for DANGEROUS Wind Chill readings. Even without the snow that goes along with a blizzard, this weather will still be the kind you want to stay out of!
This is some wicked weather we’re preparing for. Everyone stay safe out there. I’ll have to get out in it to get to work and back, but other than that I plan to hybernate at home.
Thanks for the update Chris.
Its to bad that this rain can’t be snow
Kentucky = Fence
Something about KY (all bot the north part) that makes moisture and cold air hate each other. Just looks at cumulative snow maps over the past decade. Looks like there really is a giant dome over much of the state.
Again, opportunity does not bust a trend- results do. Wild how several years ago everyone was talking “big” snow and now everyone simply gets excited with “any” snow.
How many more times will we hear about heavy rain, followed by trailing snow showers? The stars are aligned for big snows this winter, but KY might not be in the correct galaxy.
WEll, snow or not, I think it’s time to dig out the long johns for work! Sounds like after tomorrow, I am going to need them!
Chris, hope you have another update for us soon, as this current event bears down on us. I, for one, do NOT care for the High wind advisory for us….this time of year, that can spell REAL trouble.
And Wxman, I am glad that you said CHRISTmas decorations! That is the holiday that I celebrate! 😉
fri/sat could be very interesting but it looks/sounds like a broken record with reguards to snow/rain/ice lines. but i’ll take ice i guess. williamstown points NW look out for the pow.lmk disscussion did mention that the nam is better handling the low level cold that will be in place.
Come on Bubba G. Since coming out of hibernation you’ve had a positive outlook. It’s only December(I keep telling myself). This will be the year to break the 11 year trend.
Can’t we skip the wind, please?
amen!
just got the morning jog in, sprinkles starting to fall, and heavy rain is knocking on the doorstep…gonna be a good soup/movie night…
You can keep your ice. If all we’re gonna get is ice, I’d just as soon skip winter altogether! I hope this winter doesn’t continue the decade+ trend of having to live vicariously through the snowfall of nearby places!
I’m sure that this has been asked before, but where can I find the accumulating snow prediction graphics?
Thanks
I hate high wind events particularly here in Eastern Kentucky where the power lines run up and down the steep hills.. and through the deep forest..
Almost always means a power outage, just in time for the UK-Uconn game:(
Thanks Chris for the updates.
Madison County – Berea
Light Rain
39°
Me too MikeM! It is only the second week of Dec. after all.
BubbaG…are you still working third shift?
Half of the state of Iowa has been upgraded to a Blizzard Warning for what they are now calling an “epic” storm. They are expecting anywhere from 12-18″ of wind-driven snow and temperatures to -5° and wind chills to -20°!
Yeah this storm is no joke. There are going to be issues on both sides of the storm. I just wish we were on the northern side. I’ve seen enough wind/rain for one year.
If you take it verbatim, just looking only at what the model shows, the 12Z run of the GFS paints anywhere from 7-15″ of snow in KY next week.
The main thing that is grabbing my attention is how the forecasts for more southern branch systems this Winter seems to already be taking shape.
Amen!
But will that translate into more snow for us?
The “new” GFS throws down on us WWE style next week also, with 8-10″ of snow here. Obviously this doesn’t mean go buy bread and milk now. Worth keeping an eye on for trends though.
And yeah if we can keep the southern branch active, we’ll have a shot at a Big One…just have to time it right with cold air in place for a day or two before the storm hits.
halleluia!!!!….7-15″, with temps. in the teens…sounds like fun,fun,fun….heeee-hahttp://www…lol.lol..
and I would almost GUARANTEE that it will happen, because we are trying to get a MOdular home moved in the next week or so!!! weather permitting, the last time I moved Jan 15, 03 we had over 6″ of snow on the ground…so LOOK OUT FOLKS TIMS TRYING TO MOVE SO ITS GONNA SNOW AND SNOW ALOT!!!!…lol..
…………….
and as advertised quite often here on the blog..this site is awesome for local conditions here in the state of ky.
http://www.kymesonet.org/
http://www.weatherbonk.com is another awesome site to go to scroll over the areas that the blizzard is taking shape and see current conditions and webcam shots of the snowstorm in action…pretty cool, would be better if it were here though… 🙂
Here is a LIVE STREAMING CAM from Ames, Iowa.
http://webcam.coolstreaming.us/show_live.php?id=50075&size=large
Nope. I got tired of flipping shifts and managing over 100 souls as direct reports. I am materials manager for a big company that’s HQ is in Lexington.
Not negative as much as needing to see opportunity actually equal a result. This is the same type of system that nailed us in December 1989 for snow, but the cold air and moisture liked each other then.
How about Eastren KY.
OMG!! wxman got my attention with the new 12z run so I had to check it out…what a SWEET STORM (S) from the 16- practically Christmas…but the storm on the 15-17 on this particular run is a BIG DADDY OR A PAPAW!!! FOR KY!!!!…if only it would pan out…
http://webcam.coolstreaming.us/show_live.php?id=50075&size=large
here is something to think about as well, with all the snow being laid to our north with this HUGE STORM now, a large area is gonna be snow covered…so that in turn will mean colder air for us with each cold front, due to the snowpack to our north so models dont pick up on that well either, especially with the upcoming weekend system, could be a whole lot colder than expected…..translating into more snow and yes..ice…:(
Just when you think the GFS is going warmer.. it goes colder and wetter! Snow lovers eye candy for Ky on the 12z as WXman pointed out.
Tim, you remind me of a kid on Christmas morning! I love reading when you post!
Yes, Bubba it is only December, and we have already had almost as much measurable snow here than we had all last winter. (whatever that means, if anything.) 😉
right now, we are being treated to rain….and a LOT of it. Started out light, but it got heavy in a hurry. Now, its sort of steady…..and temp is sitting at 41.
Wonder when we will start feeling the effects of the wind? Any guesses?
Wxman, lets keep our fingers crossed for that big one next week….it’s just like the lottery…one of these days, our numbers are gonna come up! 😀
OHH LORD TIMMMY dont get to high, or me and u both will have to go u into rehab for withdrawls.lol
yea it look great dont it, maybe,just maybe its TIME!!!
but that what I was saying from start this winter was going to be ACTIVE FOR THE SE part of country this winter and as WXMAN said we just need to time one RIGHT to get OLD SCHOOL cause that er OLD SCHOOL TRACKS COME FROM!!!
Boyle County- 1:15pm Temp at 39 and .12″ of rain have fallen. Radar estimates of .80″ have fallen south of Bowling Green to the Tn. line. A few areas of convection are being detected just west of the bluegrass.
see to get THE BIOG DADDYS as ole CRAZY HERNRY like to say, our area needs a perfect track that throws ATLANTIC MOISTURE back west into us, and that just what the models are showing.
now just got email from my buddy, and it said this.
hey the kiss of death, HENRY AT ACCU SAYS THIS,,
the dream storm for the 17th is back on the model for 17th, it brings tears to my eyes.lol
Can someone provide a link for the 12z forecast? Where is a map for the 17th of December? What an amazing blog!
BUT dont get real excited folks as the DREADED LEFT TURN!! AKA westward trens will get us just like always when we dont need it.
I bet on it right now that it does. but as LITTLE TEXAS i think said there a FIRST TIME FOR EVERYTHING!!
People….this is the perpetual week away snowstorm we see, it seems like every stinkin’ week. I’m with BUBBA G, I’ll believe it when it begins…until then, I’ll be wishing for spring.
Fourth attempt to post….
Boyle County- 1:15pm Temp at 39 and .12″ of rain have fallen. Radar estimates of .80″ have fallen south of Bowling Green to the Tn. line. A few areas of convection are being detected just west of the bluegrass.
Mj has and interesting look on the sat. system on the long range NWS forcast discussion.
lol yep, its painful but we just need to be thankful for the wrap around we get because some winters thats all lexington points south will manage, north of lex…thats obviously not true.
OLD GFS
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_180m.gif
NEW GFS
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_180m.gif
Looks like things are getting pretty amped up! Bring it!
I for one would love to see Winter Weather Advisories go up around here on Friday….and then get SLAMMED on Tuesday. But alas, it will likely not come to pass. The GFS is teasing us right now. I bet MJ will pop in tonight and give us an opinion on next week.
MJ has a great long range discussion about the weekend system.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LMK&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
We’re being upgraded to HIGH WIND WARNING soon. Last call to tie down those decorations/trash cans!
Didn’t those same models project a lot of snow for this area last week 😉
TEST
Iowa Blizzard http://webcam.coolstreaming.us/show_live.php?id=50075&size=large
The ENTIRE state of Iowa as well as a large part of Wisconsin and parts of 5 other states are under a blizzard warning now. This thing is a monster!
20th attempt at posting
Iowa Blizzard
http://webcam.coolstreaming.us/show_live
.php?id=50075&size=large
If “IF” all this rain had been snow!!! Every winter we’re always saying “IF”. Now with all this rain gotta watch out for trees with weak roots cause of the 50mph + wind gusts tomorrow..could cause trees to come down given the saturated ground and extremely high winds
Just came home from work and noticed my temp outside was 35 degrees. I thought it was supposed to get up to the mid 40’s today. Also the wind is out of the east and the radar is showing pink all the way down to Cincy. Anyone think that this storm may bring is more snow than forcasted?
I would take either one because I live in central kentucky….looks like theres more potential the next few weeks then we have seen in a long time and we are due a snow here in kentucky so maybe if we just quit trying to figure it out and ask the good Lord he’ll send us what we are wishing for
LOL…:)
18z Nam is saying not much if any wrap around snow showers…while the 18z GFS says there will be.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_024m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_pcp_024m.gif
hold on shannon its coming, warm front just went through southern ky…temp went from 39 to 46* here in knox co. in the last couple of hrs…still 39* in laurel co. so its moving north slowly…probably with the dry slot thats hit us right now, we’ve had heavy rain all day, creeks are running high in my nick of the woods…
Same here Tim. Got standing water everywhere over here…that next round of heavy rain may put us over the top…Temps rising here in Pulaski Co. as well
What a miserable day to be walking around downtown Lexington.
thanks coffeelady, I appreciate the compliment…you know me and winter weather..especially when the “S” word is involved…lol…
It unfortunately fits to my concerns.
Yep. A snow monster for most, but a wet willy for us;)
Kentucky: Home of the Wet Willy 🙂
Huh?
Well, I’m home from work and off to take a cat nap. When those high winds crank up, I’ll be too scared to go to sleep tonight. I live on top of a hill and get a lot of wind. This could be a wild night up here.
the WESTWARDWARD TREND it sucks AMEN,,,,WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!
FLOODing look very likely with next round heading this way for SE KY, water rising with alot of runoff still to come and probably inch pluss more of rain.
41 here now temp rising
Your funny your the only other reason i read the blog besides Chris