Good Monday everyone. The new week is likely to be a busy one and it is getting off to a wintry start for some folks. We have a weak system that is quickly moving through the area today. This is not a moisture rich system, but the timing of it may cause some early morning problems in a few spots. We have that to talk about… a big storm for Tuesday and Wednesday… the coldest air of the season for the end of the week and the threat for a late week snow. That enough for you? 
The best threat for light snow and a wintry mix will be across western, northern and parts of central Kentucky early this morning. This stuff is likely to weaken out as it moves east so there is the question on how far east it will get. You can track it all right here…
Watch for some slick spots this morning. As I mentioned earlier… today is the start of a busy week…
A huge storm churns northeast from the plains into the northern Ohio Valley. Rain will rapidly increase across the region on Tuesday and it will be a chilly rain. Here is the GFS…
Tuesday Afternoon
As the low cranks up to our west… we get into a brief shot of milder air by Tuesday evening into early Wednesday as rains continue and winds crank..
Tuesday Night
That low deepens into the lakes as another low pops off the New England coast. Much colder air moves in as temps crash from west to east Wednesday. Winds will be very gusty and some snow showers and flurries will move in late in the day into early Thursday…
Wednesday Evening
Thursday and Friday will be very cold days with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens. By later Friday… a southern system will be rolling almost due east and will try to throw moisture back at us…
Friday Evening
Friday Night
That late week system has some possibilities so we really need to keep an eye on that! By the way… trust no model after Thursday!!!
Have a great Monday and check back for updates. Take care.
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light sleet in bwg, my extra hour in ct only goes so far off to bed!!
Lets see ground frozen rain coming what does that equal
31 degrees with snow in Lawrenceburg. Doing exactly what the GFS model said it would last week. Starting to wonder about the NWS myself now…
Powell County on a two hour delay.
well CBC that Friday sure does look interesting, little tilt on path and BAM!!
far as this morning goes it dry in GUNCHESTER as I type 33 degrees.
I’m driving from Pikeville to Lex at about 8:30….anyone live around Mtn Pky that can report on amount of snowfall that is coming down? Radar isn’t looking good for a day of driving!
dont worry, roads will be fine. drive like a normal person and dont worry the precip is very light and actually not falling in a wide area.
alot of this not hitting ground because it shows precip er im at and its DRY AS A BONE.
ohh the CBC stands for
Chris Bailey Claus!!!
Thanks ROLO!!!! You’ve eased a nervous driver’s mind!!!!
Probably around a dusting to a 1/4 inch of snow on the ground here in nky.
I hope we can have a live chat on the blog sometime soon.
Thanks Rolo!! You’ve eased the mind of a nervous driver!!!
no problem MATHTEACH, BE SAFE.
man this end of week look interestingh as it throws moisture north.
then I see a MONSTER FOR CHRISTMAS possible too. I know it a long ways off but I luv looking at models.
man its is indeed looking more and more that this WINTER SEASON is going to be very,very active for the whole SE part of country.
its is very exciting if u ask me.
Accidents on the road on my way in to work this morning. VERY icy out there because the road crews were using the NWS forecast. Now they are trying to play catch-up. So be careful..esp. on the bridges!
Which promptly caused an accident along my route into work. Love what a dusting can do to area roadways.
It was nice to walk out this morning to warm up the car and see the snow coming down. Not accumulating but still nice to look at. Bridges were slick coming from Versailles to Lexington so watch out for that. Looking forward to the weekend. Hopefully central Ky can catch a big one.
We have sleet
Rolo, CBC. TOO cute. 🙂
correction we have sleet with some snow mixed in
in Knox County
Make that no school in Powell County.
snow/sleet falling in knox county, just got back from taking kids to school, roads are getting pounded by the state salt trucks right now they are out in full force…TEMP. is only 30 degrees too…so that spells a MESS if it keeps up, good thing the kids are safe at school…a couple hrs. earlier and it could have been a snow day..easily.
tim
downtown Barbourville (knox co.)
30*
snow/sleet
Here on the west side of Frankfort, 4 miles east of the Shelby/Franklin county line and 1 mile north of the Anderson/Franklin county line the temperature is 33.6 degrees with light snow.
Temps 32 degrees in Lawrenceburg with light snow still falling. There is a glaze on the the trees, rooftops, the grass, and vehicles. Real pretty to wake up to. Roads are just wet.
well not downplaying the tue-wed. system by any means, because someone is gonna get a full blown blizzard out of it. but for us its the typical wind driven rain storm….BUT the weekend system is starting to get my attention as Chris alluded to… check out my forecast this morning from the NWS in JKL.. for knox co.
…………
Friday: A 10 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33.
Friday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.
Saturday: A slight chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39.
Saturday Night: A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.
now when I see snow in my forecast from Friday through saturday night…thats enough to get my attention, even if it is a SMALL chance right now, it is a chance non the less…:)
Nice light snow here on 127 just north of Harrodsburg. Enough to cover the rooftops and a few grassy spots.
The million dollar question is will central KY finally bust the looooong trend of most of the moisture being gone by the time the cold air comes in this winter.
This winter seems like the best shot we have had in many years, but it has to actually happen. Results break trends, not opportunity.
We had some sleet mixed with rain a little earlier this morning, but it quickly changed over to a very light rain, althought the temp is at the freezing mark. Right now, it is not doing anything here…
Snow is falling in Pikeville right now and 28 degrees.
myself says EASTEN AND SE ky especially will be the winners this winter, now just how much we will see is the question.
alot of southern storms look to be coming and that put us on the north/NW side of the storm yere in SE KY!!!
on a side npote THE STATE OF KY ROAD CREWS once again wasting money, leave the roads alone this morning as they wasnt that bad, yea there was slick areas but if u have any sense at all u would have been fine.
now when that DUMMY wrecks cause he not paying attention well its his own fault. but usually that dummy kills some other person instead of hisself.
so I guess better safe than sorry.
What is the long term forecast for snow?
How’s this for a forecast–Quad Cities:
TUESDAY NIGHT…A WILD NIGHT WITH SNOW…HEAVY AT TIMES WITH THUNDER-
SNOW AND WINDS INCREASING FROM NW TO SE. LOCAL TOOLS SHOW 1 TO 2 INCH SNOWFALL RATES REMAIN PLAUSIBLE. SOME SUGGESTION OF INTERNAL GRAVITY WAVES MAY RESULT IN GUSTS AOA 40-45 MPH THAT WOULD CREATE BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER. BLOWING SNOW AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO OCCUR OVER ALL BUT FAR EAST SECTIONS THAT WILL RENDER TRAVEL CONDITIONS DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. MOST OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR IN THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY…EXTREME WINTER STORM WILL RESULT IN LARGE PERIODS AND AREAS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS…POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING THE AREA. OVER A DOZEN TOOLS INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS AT LEAST OF 25 TO 40+ MPH WITH GUSTS OF 50 MPH OR MORE. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH APPEAR QUITE PROBABLE WITH SOME GUSTS TO ~55-60 MPH. A VIGOROUS DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD REMAIN FROM DBQ TO NEAR BRL THAT WILL LIFT NE TOWARD MID DAY. WIDESPREAD AND PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES BASED ON PAST SNOW AMOUNTS AND WIND SPEEDS APPEAR LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS BY DUSK.
well its always FUN to start looking at long range forecasts this time of yr. to see how snow chances look for Christmas…FUnny thing this morning, the 15 day forecast for my area is showing 3″ of snow to fall on Dec. 22nd…that would be really nice, but 15 forecasts are like birds flying in the wind…lol..
now thats a SNOWSTORM!!!
This storm is forecast to bring 7-12″ where my grandparents live in Kansas, along with the same kind of winds, followed by sub-0° temps between tonight and Weds.! This is will truly be a DANGEROUS storm for anyone in its path!
Wow, that is a great storm. Too bad we don’t get weather like that here.
Once upon a time we did, hopefully those types of storms return to us! Lots of people complain about that kind of weather, but I love it! Its just a matter of keeping yourself safe by taking the proper precautions!
I know…it may be sunny and 70 for Christmas. LOL
Some parts of Colorado will get enough snow in the next three or four days that will equal or go above our yearly snowfall…now that is some snow.
Don’t mean to be a negative ned but both 12z GFS runs are coming in with a much warmer solution for the system and slower to get in here more like sat night and sunday. I’m not liking our odds for anywhere in KY to get an accumulating snow this weekend as of now. Things can and will change whether it goes warmer or colder we will have to wait and see.
What? You’ve got to be kidding.
so they are gonna get 3 inches…WOW….haha
has anyone seen the cold the gfs is advertising? -30c entering the lower 48 i wonder how far south it will go, i will say a snowy pattern is questionable but a cold one looks likely.
i dont see the big deal with this current storm its the same areas every year that get clocked with copious amounts of snow, send it our way.
Here, hear! Just jealousy!
Chris Bailey said:
That late week system has some possibilities so we really need to keep an eye on that! By the way… trust no model after Thursday!!!
**Ok, that has really got my attention. Can anyone elaborate?
On the 12Z GFS run, we see another system coming in Saturday that looks identical to the one we had today. More icy roads. Gonna’ see how it looks on the “new” GFS…
On the “new” GFS, the temp. profiles are considerably warmer, therefore no real problems. The current GFS says the roadways will be dangerous Saturday. Looks like a good test to see which does a better job…
Does anybody know what it is that supposedly makes the new GFS better than the old one?
That would be awesome.
Anything was better than the old one, especially 7 days away.(Scientific Theory)
This late week system has the makings of another mix bag as thickness values on all of the models(Euro,Gfs,Cmc, JMA etc.) are marginal even with a surface low track along the gulf coast.
Then…could we see an episode of ClipperMania right before Christmas?
Very good discussion this afternoon from JKL about the mid week storm.
According to them a High Wind Watch will be posted for the entire JKL area soon.
HIGH WIND WATCH just issued for central Kentucky!!
Yeah gonna be some nasty wind out there. Bad day for trash day I guess. Wish it was a blizzard warning instead..lol
looks like weekend system could be a northern ky. snowmaker, and mix down south…can’t wait to hear what Bailey Claus, 🙂 has to say about that…lol
.
although he did say not to trust any model past thursday…hmmmm…I know the gfs is sure playing a different tune, in terms of warmer for the weekend…oh this is gonna be a nail biting winter….
.
Thanks for taking time to help
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