Good Friday afternoon everyone and thanks for blogging. I wanted to throw out a quick update to get our first “first call for snowfall” map of the season on the blog. The GFS has come around to the NAM’s way of thinking meaning the first light snowfall of the year is in the cards for the eastern half of the state. Both models are actually a touch wetter and farther west with the Saturday snow and that is a trend to watch for all the way into Saturday.
Here is our first call…
That would be a pretty good start to the snow season for a lot of people and matches up with our winter forecast in terms of snow totals. 
I would suspect the NWS in Jackson would put a Winter Weather Advisory out for much of southeastern Kentucky… they should, anyway!
I will have another update later today so check back. Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter for more updates @Kentuckyweather .
Take care.
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westward trend,
westward trend,
westward trend we go!!
the snow will fly !!
the sleds will Glide !
as down the hill we go….HEE-HAW!!..
LOL..LOL….:)
SNAP ! SNAP ! NWS!!…you better get on the SNOW TRAIN…….
I would just to have flakes fly as I’ve said dozen of times before. I’m going with girlfriends tomorrow to the Glitz in Nonesuch, Ky. It’s a quirky little place with rooms of exotic Christmas decorations and an unusal resturant in the basment. It also has rooms and rooms of antiques in the upstairs. It would make our luncheon even more festive if we had just a flake or two of the white stuff!
Good luck Patty from Versailles.
here is some weather-cams outta houston texas, see the snow fly…http://weatherbonk.com/weather/camDetail.jsp?id=_wc_1142897940551
more cool snow pics outta texas!!!
http://www.khou.com/news/Winter-Storm-Watch-issued-for-9-local-counties-78405967.html?gallery=y&c=y
Hi from Pikeville temp 36.All I can say is a quote from a wise man on here and its this Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
The weather channel now has southeast kentucky in the 3-6 range for snow.
itold u all in lastthread it was looking better.. yeeha
tx”>www!!
tx ole Chris THE LEGEND Bailey.
myself looking at SAT/RADAR and stuff think we are going to get more, but 1-2 is fin here if that indeed what happens.
but will the temps fall below freezing, that im not sure of, but after precip starts to fall temps should fall. we will see.
that will be the difference in SNOW OIN GROUND or not.
FEEL THE POWER!!! OF the SE KY snow tracker/ hillbilly KYWEATHER CENTER TEAM!!
maybe the state highway was n to something pre treating da roads. no they like to waste taxpayer mulla.
OMG im afraid to see what website my post brought up there,lol yehaw,lolll
man that radar to SW is looking better and better, mmmmmmmm
next model will show even more moisture.
good luck getting flakes for the parade in versailles, I’m keeping my fingers crossed.
Have fun at The Glitz! It’s such a great place!
They are brining the streets in downtown Lex……time to check with Kroger to see what we can really expect.
Could someone please post the most recent gfs ?? and nam … thoughts and opions on this storm ???…I just moved here from miami fl and i am excited to see some snow for the first time in my 29 years!!! dont like this cold thoe
Thanks Chris for the updates.
“IF ONLY” this was ALL snow! Wed/Thur storm.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95e12p48iwbg_fill.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_024s.gif
18Z NAM hot off the press very much confines this to extreme eastern KY only.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY
UNTIL 3:15AM EST
Wswjkl
Urgent – Winter Weather Message
National Weather Service Jackson KY
250 PM EST Fri Dec 4 2009
…Winter Weather Advisory In Effect For Snow From 3 AM To 7 Pm
Saturday…
.An Area Of Low Pressure Will Combine Cold Air From The Northern
Plains With Limited Gulf Moisture As It Tracks To The Northeast. The
Combination Will Produce Snow Across Extreme Eastern KY. Although
Most Of Eastern Kentucky Will See Some Snowfall… The Counties That
Border Virginia And West Virginia May Accumulate Between 1 And 2
Inches Of Snow. The Snow Accumulation Is Expected To Be The Heaviest
In The Higher Terrain With The Valleys Generally A Half An Inch Or
Less.
Harlan-Letcher-Pike-
Including The Cities Of…Harlan…Whitesburg…Pikeville
250 PM EST Fri Dec 4 2009
…Winter Weather Advisory In Effect From 3 AM To 7 PM Est
Saturday…
The National Weather Service In Jackson Has Issued A Winter
Weather Advisory For Snow…Which Is In Effect From 3 AM To 7 PM EST
Saturday.
An Area Of Low Pressure Will Produce Accumulating Snow For The
Kentucky Counties Bordering Virginia And West Virginia. Expect
Between 1 And 2 Inches Of Snow For The Higher Elevations With Around
A Half An Inch Or Less In The Valleys.
A Winter Weather Advisory For Snow Means That Periods Of Snow Will
Cause Primarily Travel Difficulties. Be Prepared For Snow Covered
Roads And Limited Visibilities… And Use Caution While Driving. The
Greatest Impact Will Be In The High Mountain Passes Of Highways
160… 119… 80 And 194.
Winter Weather advisory out now. 😀
in the plains it’s all snow. but still the gfs has the storm digging to deep in the west so instead a western lakes cutter that brings thunderstorms the primary low tracks overhead making this a breif mix to rain to leftover snow showers deal. that’s in line with the 12z euro.
Looks like I’m gonna have to wait for the next storm. 🙁
Here is a good radar link incase someone doesn’t have it.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/images/wwd/radnat/natrad.html
its gunna trend west. most likely thats the normal think with storms involving snow. Only thing different is this time the rain word isnt involved so there is no line or fence if you will this time.
Thanks Chris. I will take an inch (if possible) at this point! Just to see some falling will be nice.
I just saw the live shot of Houston on the Weather Channel. The trees have leaves. I never noticed that trees kept their leaves when I lived there as a kid. My mom is so worried because she has to wrap her outside pipes. Good luck to all the Southerners!
I saw something I didn’t like at all in the NWS long range forecast. Wind on Tuesday and Wednesday with gusts up to 40 mph. Ugh, I hate wind.
Here’s to hoping there is snow for us tomorrow.
I agree with Lincoln. Not only is it a usual occurence for these storms to track west but also the radar returns are showing moisture farther north and west then what the models are showing. I believe even with the next few model runs regardless of the trends Chris’s forecast snowfall map is looking good. I wouldn’t be suprised if even LEX gets an inch of snow.
We who not getting the most snow are truely happy for those who are…just remember to play nice and share! 😉
well winter weather adv. up for most of northern and eastern tn..and ky counties bordering va,and west va….im in knox co. right along the tn border and here is my point/click forecast from the NWS in JKL…no mention of accumulation in it!!!…sheesh..
……………….
Tonight…Cloudy. Flurries possible in the evening…then a chance of snow late. Lows in the upper 20s. Light winds. Chance of snow 50 percent.
Saturday…Partly cloudy. A chance of snow in the morning…then a chance of sprinkles or flurries in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 30s. North winds at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
STUFF LIKE THIS GETS ON MY NERVES!!!!!…the forecast above is for knox,bell areas of ky…you jump across the border into tn. not 20-40 miles in the morristown NWS area and they have WINTER WEATHER ADV…and the following forecast…
Tonight: A 50 percent chance of snow, mainly after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 29. North wind around 10 mph. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Saturday: Snow likely, mainly before 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. North wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
…..
that’s kind of a big deal if you live here…even though criteria is different from both offices…1-2″ of snow and an advisory can mean a big difference in someone traveling and staying home…thats just my 2 cents worth..and that aint much…
guy looking at latest sat/radar loops the snow area uin texas now moving more east, and the main precip on east side already to far east, mean aint going happen for usa timmy, the clouds deck streaming our wayt out of teas but the moisture blending on coast down there and main low will take over off coast atlantic side. 2 hours ago look good, now bnot so much unless this ferga up here BLOWS up but there no mecanizim for that to as system to far soiuth and moving east. ne
this is a miss as of now unless the backside explode as it moves up. man im sad now.
I don’t know what you are looking at rolo but based on the radar returns I am seeing it lines up very well with the 18z GFS which if anything pulled the storm a tad bit west. It will be a sharp cut-off but eastern kentucky most likely will get a good snow event out of this and LEX isn’t out of the ball game either I would not be suprised at all to squeeze out an inch up here.
well just listened to Bailey on wsaz, he was saying signs by the way the atmosphere is moistening up, could be a sign of a more western movement to the storm..
Gosh-dang, Tim, I HOPE that thing moves a hair or two more WESTWARD?!;) By Chris’ snow map there, it’s only gotta stretch another county or two to get me here in Nelson Co/Bardstown…:/
But, hey…if you guys get anything, I’ll be thrilled, because I know you’ve been waiting…and waiting….and waiting….:)
I have a friend in the ‘burbs of Houston right now…she just called to rub it in that she had a little over 2″ (and more coming…)-BUT!- It’s nice to know that the ground stays warm enough there even after a cold snap, so she won’t have to gloat for, say, no more than about 30-45 min’s…LMAO!!!:D
If all the snow in Houston actually stuck around, they’d have quite a bit. It will be an exciting evening and night for them and then it will immediately warm up tomorrow. My mom said it will be near 60 in the next few days.
for those of you wanting an hourly model run check out the RUC (rapid Update Cycle) model it’s also can be used as a dataset for research dating back to the early 1990’s and is one of the datasets I’m using in my graduate school thesis at WKU.
scroll down for RUC
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
the 00z RUC has the back edge from Bowling Green to Lexington to ashland. with a decent period from jackson south and east.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/ruc/hr4/images/ruc_p01_012l.gif
tim that what we need is it to explode meaning more moisture cxoming up into this area. dewpoint on 23 at my place.
broken link ??
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/ruc/hr3/images/ruc_p01_012l.gif
try this one, sorry.
Well, I have just come from a GREAT Christmas presentation at a local church. It was wonderful! Really put me in the Christmas spirit. NOw, I just need to see some snow falling, whether it sticks or not, to make it complete. (Of course, I’d love to see it hip deep to a giraffe, but, I will take what I can get, especially this early in the season,) 😉
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_ref_012l.gif
nam radar from 00z run sat am.
50 miles west Mitch…!!!
Just 50 freaking miles west..!!!
Is that asking too much..? lol
I love snow more than I love my purse….but NOT tomorrow!!! Driving to Lexington…..if it would just hold off til a SCHOOL DAY!!! LOL
hey wenned and update
that shows rain for far east ky there but defintly a nice slug of moisture by golley..mmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
but i might have muy colors mixed up i have 4 xanaxes and 3 glasses of whine in me, that my meal the nite before a big GAME!!!
if ur in my area SE ky allyn its looking quiet good, look for snow rto begin around late nite.
getting same 404 error
Winter Weather Advisory expanded to include Knott, Perry, Bell, Leslie, Floyd, and Martin counties:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=JKL&issuedby=JKL&product=WSW&format=ci&version=1
well what is it looking like for jessamine county?/ i mean what are the chances of a 50-75 mi west shift?
ok leslie in it a clay not,lol laugher..
ill get 2 inches or more at my place u wait and see.
well if the trends contenue as always than we should be in the bullseye for sure this time ……….. but if the tred of normal does not happen then we will be out of luck
………. looking at newer model runs we are to far west Lexington will only be getting a dusting to inch at best from this storm .. no e ky will recive about 2-4 inches in some cases…… now the storm next week looks much more promising for
Well atleast there is no problem with WAA this round….ha ha
GO STEELERS!!!
Who dey who dey who going to loose to them !!
lol all in fun !!!
Winter weather advisory here in pike
HARLAN-LETCHER-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.HARLAN.WHITESBURG.PIKEVILLE
948 PM EST FRI DEC 4 2009
.WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM
EST SATURDAY.
LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT & PERSIST THROUGH THE MUCH OF
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BY
DAWN.WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED BY THE
TIME THE SNOW DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED
ROADS & LIMITED VISIBILITIES.& USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
All I can say is Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
well it looks like i’m in the hot spot 36 degrees here 🙁
Regardless of what the rest of the area does or doesn’t get, SE KY should get a couple inches. Watch next weeks ride I64 and be a similar pattern from west and north. Maybe central KY is the Bermuda Triangle for snow….
They have the STRANGEST Wx out west..??!- Back in ’85, we drove to Vega$ early July…had the A/C on thru West TX/NM….hotter than Hades….?!- We get a little past Albuquerque around 3am,stop to eat…ppl wearing freakin’ HEAVY COATS??!- I’m like, “WTH”??!- til I get outta the car and see my BREATH when I talk??!- This side of the city, it was like 98°…10 miles the other side, it’s like 40°?!!?-the whole “sea level” thing??!- Sittin’ in a truck stop booth, eatin’ a Omelet,wearin’ shorts & tank top, freezin’ my arse off, while I watch “heat lightning” out the window @ 38°….GOOD GRIEF, CHARLIE BROWN!!!;)
00z GFS is showing a Low staying in the great lakes late next week. Keeps pinwheeling snow showers down our way
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_120m.gif
I told you guys long ago (last winter) that if snow doesn’t come to me, I always manage to find it! I just pulled into Johnson City, TN for my Sister’s Christmas party! Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!!!!
Did I mention how stoked I am!?! Wooohoooo!!! That pretty much sums it up in a nutshell! I’ll give you guys an update in the morning!
snow dome, snow dome!!
ITS SNOWING !!!….ground is white, grass is anyways, looks like about 1/2″ to an 1″ on the grass, and its still coming down…YEE-HAW !!!
Downtown Barbourville,
knox co.
29*
SNOW ! falling…
snow falling in knox co. barbourville area. looks right around 1″ or so on the grass…yippeeeee…
Downtown B.Ville
snow falling
29*
moderation
snow on the ground in Barbourville, about 1″ so far and its still snowing!!!! yippeee….
snowing
29*
downtown Barbourville
no where near an inch at my house maybe 1/4 of a inch thus far grass is covered porch is covered thats bout it here
about 1/4 inch of snow and 33 degrees on my front porch guess i will miss out on the 1-2 inches oh well
moderate snow is falling now in downtown Barbourville, and I cant find a live webcam in the area that is showing anything, still too dark…
BIG FAT SNOWFLAKES FALLING….
your gonna have to move outta that warm swampy area if you want snow!!!!..LOL..:)
is anyone else getting any snow this morning????
according to kymesonet.com
Knox co.
temp: 29.7*
started snowing around 2am
liquid equiv. 0.10
snow falling
arond 1 or so on elevated and grassy surfaces.
pavement appears to be just wet,with slush on edges
kymesonet.com
knox co.
29.7*
started snowing around 2 am
liquid equiv. 0.10
still snowing
around 1″ or so on elevated surfaces and grassy areas, pavement appears to be just wet,with slush on edges..
I woke up to a light coating and spotty snow here. Still snowing.
Madison County – Berea
Light Snow
28°
We got a dusting on roof tops and decks here in Versailles! I’m excited about that! I’m also happy that a lot of you got more than that!