Good Friday gang. I will keep this one rather brief since I will have another update or two later today on a system that will bring us a brush with accumulating snows this weekend. We will look at that and take a peak at a very active pattern that is threatening to go to the extreme!
The NAM is the most aggressive in printing out snow around parts of the state… especially across the east and southeast. It seems to be a little more consistent right now than the GFS with the east coast low. Here is what it shows for snowfall for Saturday…
That is one sharp cutoff on the western side of the snow and something like that is likely to be realized. Exactly where this sharp edge sets up will be up to the track of the low and we will take a stab at that with a snowfall forecast later today.
Sunday will see us in between systems as we have to watch for a wintry mix moving in from the west at some point Monday. This was first talked about a few days ago and the more I look… the more potential I see for some light wintry stuff.
A HUGE storm will crank across the midwest and Ohio Valley Tuesday into Wednesday as TRUE arctic air gets involved into the overall pattern for much of the country. This will be one of those systems that can give us a substantial temp plunge in a matter of hours to go along with rain to snow. Take a look at the GFS…
Wednesday Morning
Wednesday Evening
That is some wicked cold up in Canada that is heading south into the country and it is aimed right at us. This will be computer model number busting cold that wraps in behind this system! Wednesday could be one heck of a wild ride!!! After that… keep an eye on the end of next week as the southern branch of the jet stream ejects a system due eastward along the arctic boundary.
The overall pattern is threatening to send the mother load of arctic air up in Canada south into the states at some point before Christmas! Combine the cold with this active southern jet stream and you can get some wicked wintry weather across much of the country. Get on board folks… the winter train is leaving the station! 
Check back later for updates. Have a good Friday and take care.
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Thanks Chris. I would definitely be happy with 3 inches of snow that the nam is showing. 🙂
We just need the cold and the southern jet to hook up and give us a favorable storm track. The potential is there and the best it’s been in years… Down with the Snow Dome!
Woooo…….Wooooo…..all aboard!!
Is the ground not too warm for the snow to stick?
The 06Z runs don’t dig the trough in as deep Wednesday and keep it warmer here. It still bears watching to see if the setup changes but I think it’s still a little early to be hoping for a southern branch storm to dump on us. What we need right now is an episode of ClipperMania, or a Saskatchewan Screamer (I spelled that wrong I think).
These two systems may reflect reality for this winter. The next system for the middle of next week will probably be the inverse of this one- same pattern and sharp cutoff with central KY being the fence again and I64 the cutting point.
I hope this does not pan out, but years of the same thing kind of speaks for itself.
Has central KY become the “Bermuda Triangle” for snow? 😉
I think it may be…I mean when the coast of Florida gets snow before we do, something is up…
“That is one sharp cutoff on the western side of the snow”
If only I had a dollar for every time I’ve heard that.
I feel like the longer it takes us to get a big storm the bigger the storm is gonna be and some of the ones crying for snow now will be crying to be able to get out and go to town. We have forgot what its really like to be “snowed In” but I believe our day is coming because history repeats itself and weather patterns go in cycles what comes around goes around
What is diffferent so far this year is that the only snow we could hope for in the past was from clippers. So far I don’t think I’ve heard the word clipper this year.
That almost looks like a Blizzard for portions of Illinois, Iowa, and Wisconsin for next Wednesday. If only the artic air was a few hundred miles more south when the Low arrived.
Still hoping for a good snowfall Chris and it looks like having one before Christmas this year is looking pretty good!
Thanks for all the updates Chris…we look forward to the next one.
well the storm starting to pop down south, man if it would just had the NE move now we be in buisness.
i dont think that in tenn is hitting ground, my dew point is 27 though so not real dry air.
Always with the “if only”. This week “if only it would move west”, next week “if only it would move east”, and us always stuck in the middle! “If only” I had a dollar for every “if only” over the last 11 winters!;)
Jim Cantore live from Houston Tx.. on the weather channel already snowing down there, winter storm warnings with 3-6″ expected warnings all the way to the gulf coast at galveston bay !!! TOTALLY WRONG IN EVERY WAY !!!…
NWS in NASHVILLE has issued winter weather advisories for the bordering ky/tn counties along the cumberland plataeu of central and east Tn..
…………………….
my guess is that someone in Tx. is gonna get a snow to remember outta this storm!!!
Snow in TX and the deep south is depressing when we can’t squeeze a flake out here.
getting a small ribbon of snow showing up on radar moving through the southern counties…I havent seen anything falling but you can bet Im watchin.. 🙂
O.K.. these wake up with Al segments on the weather channel are TOTALLY DECEIVING !!…they show (re-play) tape from earlier for live segments…so around 9ish when J.C. was reporting snow with live shot…the shots they show now are from real early this morning when it wasnt…and they are showing it as LIVE…I’m suprised someone hasnt complained about that..
Ah…..Chris…hope springs eternal! I am looking forward to seeing some white stuff, even if it’s just in the air! Makes that holiday spirit come alive!
Looking forward to the next post! Have a safe day out there, everyone! And as usual, thanks, Chris! 😉
yea they are live from 6-7 TIM then they replay it after that.
well the STATE OF KY supposed to be in such bad shape, but the HIGHWAY WORKERS are out spending ur money by pre treating the roads like bliizard of 96 was a coming.lol
I mean they are throwing the LIQUID astuff down at a breakneck pace here in manchester.
ill say this there JUICE for this storm, just seeing the verga spreading north all ready, look at sat/radar down south itsa starting to pump, look at the snow area as it is moving NE, if we cant get the north part of this bad boy to pump up as it moves oput, we might just see something.
man the latest GFS 12z run damn its so close, it so a tease but we will see snow in the SE areas that for sure, the temps should workout as well.
the 12z gfs has a close call for 1-2 inches of snow falling in bowling green Monday Morning. Don’t know if that will happen it may be a light mix with frz rain or rain.
I saw that too. I wondered if anything was actually coming out of the sky!
MikeM Is the parade this Saturday? I remember the year 2000 it was so cold with snow coming down while the parade went by. I don’t think it’s to be this year!
Chris’s latest tweet says wetter and more west. Wonder if that will give Versailles a shot.
can someone post the 12 z runs please?
tx and tennessee getting snow, yes i am mad
Here’s a little something to make you jealous:
http://www.mtu.edu/webcams/townsend/motion.html
Here’s one from the south side of Houston:
http://www.houstontranstar.org/snapshots/cctv/830.jpg
Man I hope so! I’m in Lawrenceburg so the more west the better! lol
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_072s.gif
That’s Monday morning. Notice surface temps. in the 30s with a decent amount of moisture in western-central KY.
I’m getting out of dodge (IE southern WV) before the snow hits. I forecasted 2-4″s up here and that was playing semi conservative. Heading to WKU for a fabulous weekend, going to be glad to see some old friends. I hope everyone in Eastern KY picks up some snow from this one, but if not don’t fret… the pattern is loaded, our time will come.
*** NEW UPDATE: SNOWFALL MAP ***
If all else fails, immortality can always be assured by spectacular error.