Good Tuesday everyone. I am going to keep the winter forecast front and center into the afternoon hours today. But I also want to add a few maps for later this week as the chance for the first flakes of snow will be with us. Here is what the GFS shows…
This is not an especially cold air mass… but just cold enough for some flakes and can put down a coating… especially in the higher elevations. The GFS also continues to point toward a BIG storm for the first few days of December and we will touch more on that later today. Be sure to check back for an afternoon update. Take care.
WINTER FORECAST
Good Monday afternoon gang. It is that time of year that you have all been waiting for… time to unveil the winter forecast! I warned you I would be doing it a little different this year as I am cutting out all the mumbo jumbo that I put into the forecast. I have written some novels in years past as to why my winter forecast looked like it did. You guys don’t care about all that stuff and I don’t blame you.
I will let you know some of the years I have thrown into the mix for the winter forecast…
2006
2004
1986
1977
1976
1968
1963
1957
Of the years from above… I gave the most weight to 2006, 1977 and 1963. 2006 was mild and snowless until February when it turned brutally cold with frequent snows. 1977 jumped up on the list because of the November pattern giving it a slight edge over my earlier favorite 1976 analog. 1963 is also up there because of how this November has been. All 3 years were El Nino years.
Obviously… much more went into my forecast. But I promised to keep it simple for you guys and that is what I am going to do. I have your forecast prepared for you in maps and graphics. Here you go…
There you have it my winter weather lovers. This is likely to turn out to be the winter we have all been waiting for!! I would love to write more, but my REAL job is calling. I will have a live winter forecast blog to take your questions sometime soon. 
Let me know what you guys think about this forecast. Take care.
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Thanks Chris. Are the 2 storm tracks the primary directions that we will be getting our accum. snows from this winter? And again, thanks for the winter forcast.
WONDERFUL!!! 🙂
The perfect forecast. A REAL, no-nonsense forecast that other weather casters are throwing into overkill.
Good job, Chris! Hoping it works out for all of us crazy enough to WANT it!!;)
Let’s get Rolo on here so he can say everything Chris just said and act like he knows what he’s talking about.
Chris:thanks for the 09-10 winter forecast. If this plays out,the “old school ” is back for the Bluegrass.
I like that winter outlook. It seems almost everyone is predicting a cold and snowy winter except the NWS. I cant even remember a time NWS called for anything other than above normal temps.
Bring on the snow! Thanks Chris for all you do and Happy Thanksgiving all!
http://stormtracker.yolasite.com/
OHHHHH my…..I’m like a kid in a candy store or one waiting to open all the gifts on Christmas morning. Please I’m praying for some good ole white stuff they call snow this winter. This is my favorite time of year! Hope the snow dome retired.
I think 02-03 is the best mirror of what is to come this winter in my view though my thinking is very simialr to chris’s.
I like it CB! I’d take that track one 100 miles further west though.
model mayhem has begun for the Dec 1st storm with the 18z gfs track from new or leans to Memphis then southeast to Atlanta then back nw into the upper midwest. not going to happen.
That snowfall forecast is for each snow event right? =) I hope so!
All right bring on the snow.I can’t wait
Chris, I love the winter forecast! I can’t wait for all the snow! My eight year old daughter will have a lot of fun this year. She has no ideal what fun she will have this year. Maybe even enough to make a real snowman.
I luv my goat buddy and u are a punk for trying to be funny in using his name in a insult on me.
with that said ole ROLO been saying his thoughts for weeks, snowy winter with first snowfall around thanksgiving. well might miss the first snowfall by a day or 2 but who knows.
simply put I am at peace with my weather noggin for the winter, I will enjoy the several decent snows we get here in KY this winter and going to luv discussing it with all of you.
ole Chris Bailey, its time WKYT or any other lexington station gets you back in the BLUEGRASS STATE.
Billy G, is that you?
no its about time that knox whitley get more than 2 inches at a time 😛
Not an insult. Truth hurts doesn’t it Mr. I know it all Rolo?
i like your thinking
Wow! Well worth the wait.
Nice forecast. Will be interesting to see how it works out and if things fall into place. Best of luck man!
You just jealous Rolo more popular then you..?
Stop hating man… You give the blog a bad name with that kind of crap…
GO STEELERS…
Wow
That is the same group that overstates hurricane forecasts and understate winter forecasts to support the global warming sham. Look at recent news articles about warming scientists emails captured that shows how they faked data to support their claims. This stuff hit news sites this month.
Hey leave our Rolo alone……
You go Vinny. How could anyone hate our Rolo???????
Yes sir…
I posted an article from London on the blog a few days ago… Talked about how Al Gore himself tried to suppress the truth, and that fool won a dang Nobel Peace Prize…!!!!
We all know this crap, but for some it was real… lol
GO STEELERS..!
Thank you Chris I love the forecast.Thanks for keeping it where we all can understand.Rolo good to hear from you tim shane mitch coffee marsha well heck all of you.Chris I saw some pics on facebook of your beautiful daughter she looks just like you!!!You have a beautiful wife thank her for sharing you wih us.Happy Thanksgiving week to all!!!!!!!
I agree.Hi Marsha!
Keep it up and Chris will not stand for it. Everyone here gets along and it will be kept that way.
My last comment went to moderation I think. Just wanna say thanks to Chris the winter weather outlook and all that he does. I am excited about the possibilities. I also want to say that there is no point in someone personally attacking another. Uncalled for.
Thanks so much for the winter forecast Chris…it is JUST what we have all been waiting for.
Rolo, pay no attention to those who act big and hide behind a keyboard!!
I agree!
If you can’t say anything good…don’t say anything at all.
Finally, CB! A winter worth the wait! And a forecast I can understand! `And “New Moon” all in one week…I’m a happy camper.
Hello to all of you…I’ve missed you.
Happy Thanksgiving!!!
There is no global warming…it’s called a cycle…”what goes around, comes around.”
I agree with you guys.
That looks like one heck of a winter forecast Chris. I really hope this year is it in terms of those big storms meeting the cold air right here in the Bluegrass.
Has anyone heard of anything on the December 1st storm recently? I knew Chris mentioned it but I know the lovely GFS can change dramatically from run to run. John Belski said in his blog earlier that it may turn out to be a rain event for us. I’m so sick of the word rain. lol
Great forecast Chris…I am excited about the upcoming winter.
Great Forecast Chris…I can’t wait to kick off this upcoming winter!
Sorry…i didn’t think the first one sent. haha
I disagree.
Marsha please don’t stir the pot. It’s hard enough defending one moron.
GO STEELERS…
Thanks, Chris. for your Winter Forecast. Can’t wait till next week to see what happens with the potential for a winter storm.
Great winter forecast Chris..I love it and can’t wait..Thanks for what you do for us.
Great winter forecast Chris..I love it and can’t wait..Thanks for what you do for us!
CB…
The post at 11:15pm is not from me…
Someone using my name… What a childish way to go through life…lol
Grow up man, or at least get out of your momma basement…
Vinny what do you mean don’t stir the pot I was just taking up for Rolo what did you mean by this comment…..This is why I don’t comment no more ZEES. chris I love this
Vinny I was getting worry I thought that I had said something wrong Rolo is our blog family….
So many fakes tonight…nobody man/woman enough to stand behind their opinions by using their real names. Ignorance at it’s finest – gotta love it!
Crystal I right here I’m on here all the time I just don’t comment much anymore……
Vinny I’m sorry I should have know this was not you, and i meant to say Chris I love thsi blog but it sure is hard to comment on here but my comment was sent before i got done…..
big time storm next monday and tuesday continuing to look more likely. the 00z gfs has a snowstorm for memphis to paducah to Indiana.
If that were to materialize that has the potential of putting down up to 6 inches around Memphis. The surface temps would lower the actual accum probably as they would likely be in the low 30’s a tad above 32 for much of the heavier precip. At the same time parts of central Ky. could also be in the game with significant snow and surface temps more supportive.
http://stormtracker.yolasite.com/michaels-kentucky-snowcast.php
Thanks Chris! Of course all us winter weather lovers love that forcast! Now all we have to do is sit back and watch as it all unfolds! YEEEEEEEEEE! HIIIIIIIIIIIII!!
the 00z runs are showing a nice snowstorm, with rain and the low going right over ky with wrap around snows for the beginning of december. Thanksgiving morning looks alittle cooler than previous runs, maybe the flakes will fly sooner? i donno, im a amatuer with google (on how to read these maps)… lol
Thank you for the winter forecast Chris… I for one miss all the technical ramblings but I’m in to that sort of thing. 😛
I’m refraining from comment on the possible December 1st or 2nd system for the time being.
here are my early thoughts on the storm for dec 1.
coloradotommy.wordpress.com
why refrain? lol
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_180l.gif
Because that my friend is a snow lovers dream map. Not to mention I go back to the morning show starting next week after two months of filling in on night side and might be going on air in the WV mountains Tuesday morning talking about all the school closings we can handle :P. It looks to good to be true… so it must be… right?
Wow, looks like my comment was deleted altogether. Chris specifically asked what we thought. 🙂 Well, I will say this…December looks to start cold, so that optomistic temp. forecast is going to get off to a good start. We’ll see where it goes from there…
Please don’t lie to me….I know where you live!!!
Thanks Chris! Bring on the old school!
Vinny, Big Ben look to be ok. but man u got to be worried bout him though as a QB. he gets hit way to much and has been sacked 190 plus times. thats not good for even more concussion.
the RAVENS will be head hunting.
with that said, always hard after winning it all, the loss of TROY HAIR GUY is what hurt the steelers.
I dont understand why the TITANS waited so long with Young, he playing lights out.
track aside, the gfs is saying this storm has a ton of juice, who ever gets snow (Mo, AR, IL) there will be quite a bit of it.
06z gfs and 00z euro in good agreement for a track to the west of Kentucky, not good for snow here but it’s not a total shock.
we’re back into the game with the 12z gfs, my house in Bowling Green gets some decent snow if this verifies.
I’m getting sooooooooooo excited! I just have to get through two more nights of work!! I hate working second shift! I always miss the live blogs and all the conversation between all of you here in the evenings!
Chris…all I can say is YAY!!!! And I hope it pans out just that way!
Looking forward to a live blog about it, too! I did hear that a hornets nest was found somewhere here in Pulaski County that was 40 ft above ground……and wolly worms sure do have on a thick black coat in these parts….for waht it’s worth! (And snow wise, Ihope it turns out to be a LOT! ) 😀
Sounds like the gfs of old. Waffling back and forth. It’ll change 20 times between now and next week.
Hey, I beat CB to the punch and told you we could have more snow this winters than the past eleven. Where is my love? 😉
Wait a second, if wrong, I could then not blame CB… OK… forget I posted anything 😉
Just kiddin’, but nice that my Bubba- cast is backed up by the real deal known as CB (that is Chris’s rap name).
Hope it all plays out the way you are seeing it, Chris. As others have stated….we are LONG overdue for a good, snowy winter in these parts…here is hoping that it comes to pass for ALL of us who love the snow!
Hope everyone has a safe and Happy Thanksgiving! Don’t eat too much!
YES!! The 12Z does indeed go back to the east coast with the storms. Storm 1 up the Apps…storm 2 up the east coast….and storm 3 up the east coast!!
Looking at the 180 hr for Mexico City.. highs in the 30s?? WOW!! Looking like its going to get REALLY COLD within the next 180 hr?? You’d have to wonder if the GFS has lost its mind or if I have!! .. or I’m showing my ignorant model reading skills!!! lol 🙂
That December 1st storm looking very very interesting still! Especially for our EASTERN COUNTIES! Gotta love the GFS on them NEXT WEEK storms! lol
hey bernie!, I see freaksters is back in business for the winter season…lol..looking forward to the winter storm chats!!!…
Tim…That’s good to know. I hope I’ll get in on some of those chats!
Hey Bernie!!
the 12z gfs has snowstorm for bowling green to cincinatti points west. but the track doesnt make alot of sense from gulf to east ky to central pa, between eky and central pa the model has the low move due east for a while, jus seems very unlikely track. although we know something is going to happen now it is interesting to note that this should bring alot of snow to someone immediately to our northwest. I do think Louisville and Covington get hit this time maybe Paducah up towards Indianapolis?
Bernie…where do you go to find the GFS model?
what a victory for cb the storm would be if it tracked up through east tn into the va’s that would be close to his track #1! Right now though western and northern ky have best chances of seeing any accumulation at all, whats new lol?
The track will change some more between now and then. The current track is closer to what it had been predicting over this past weekend. I think it’ll end up going slightly farther west but we’ll see. It looks pretty good right now..
yes i agree the track is bound to change. here is my update coloradotommy.wordpress.com IF anyone in kentucky sees significant snow it will be in northern and western counties
Hey Tim & Patty! Yep.. Freaksters ready for the winter chats! 🙂
Here is the model links.
00z NAM
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/index_sl8_m_loop.shtml
06z NAM
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/06/index_sl8_m_loop.shtml
12z NAM
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/index_sl8_m_loop.shtml
18z NAM
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/index_sl8_m_loop.shtml
00z GFS
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/ten_m_loop.shtml
06z GFS
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/ten_m_loop.shtml
12z GFS
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/ten_m_loop.shtml
18z GFS
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/ten_m_loop.shtml
Awwww, no chance for southern KY?
well with the current track, se. ky. will get the wrap around snows from it, and accumulation depends on track as well though..
now.now..tommy this is the yr. the donut hole gets filled with CREAM!!!…LOL…LOL….
Check out the afternoon AFD from NWS LMK. MJ did a pretty good discussion on the upcoming storm to begin our December…
Here is the eye candy for the Dec 1st storm.
http://freaksters.com/weather/gfs156hr.gif
78 comments !!!…can we get 100 before the next update???? sure we can..LOL..
Well – I’m certainly ready for it! One more work day then bring on the 4-day’s off! Snow would only make it better. 😉
So Bernie that makes it look like central Ky gets clobbered but others are saying it tracks up the Missouri. What do you think?
Yeah it was a good write up…but seems like a repeat of the last 10 years…(look to be on the warm side of the track at this time)..lol Maybe one storm this winter will take a favorable track for us Snow fans!
yeah, and my kids are off school now until next monday!!!….Thinking about some good quality time with them through the holiday weekend… and Christmas shopping for the Lady of the house..
I definately would like to see that pan out, I hopeful, but I don’t put too much trust in the GFS past the 48-72 hr range for snow. Also the GFS has a SE bios, so with that in mind, if that don’t go more on an easterly track, we may end up with a COLD RAIN, while Indiana, Illinois ends up with the fun and games! 🙁
I’m still waiting on Chris’s next update to get his take on it as well.
Thanks so much Bernie!
tim i think your right along with bitterly cold air behind the system. but its a little to early in the season to get a favorable track for most of ky.
the good thing and the only hope for those of us southeast of the covington to paducah line is the fact that that area and nw is in the bullseye NOW but we are 5.5-6 days out from a call havin to be made so honestly i like it, i dont want the bulls eye yet!
latest gfs VERY INTERESTING it seems like the low may track so to give alot of the state snow, that said the gfs is having problems with intialzing precip but from 144-156 hrs i can see a favorable type track for us setting up. as usual though 5.5 days from now so i aint going to sweat this one yet.
True…but I’d rather see it about 150 Miles South East right now…given the GFS SE bias…it could mean shift the current setup about 200 miles NW.
Thanks for the comments. Persistence is a good way to go with the GFS when you know its particular biases. Just look at how the GFS was just days ago predicting coast to coast cold. Where happened to that? Though the 12Z Euro seems to bring some more cold end by the end of next week.
One point to remember here is that until the global pattern gets into better sync, sustained cold will not occur here in the eastern U.S. It will be 1-2 day shots of cold and thats it…despite what the GFS has beyond 192 hours.
What is the link to your site? I would like to read your thoughts.
As a whole I am having a little trouble getting excited about next weeks system.
http://stormtracker.yolasite.com/michaels-kentucky-snowcast.php
Jason Aldean new song is the BOMB, the truth is best country song of year,
man nothing like REAL COUNTRY MUSAC!!
CATS coasting, im betting VIRGINA in game 2 +1.5 to beat stanford and face us tomm.
coloradotommy.wordpress.com
neat site btw
I have been reading this blog all day at work and I still don’t know if we are getting snow the first week of December or not.LOL Someone please help a snow lover out and put this in terms I can understand. Hope everyone has a Happy Thanksgiving.
Well 100 posts!!! woot woot .. big winter big winter big winter!!!
I see our CATS have won. I am so glad this year is going to be better than the last few. I say Final Four baby..
Thats typical of the weather the last 11 yrs central gets the lion share again
you will get love when i get snow
snowlover its looking like mainly areas to our nw get the big totals, however its a week out so nothing is set in stone even if we don’t get the track we need we may get some decent totals on wrap around if the gfs has something to say lol. its wait and see as usual
well we get more updates in the summer than this.lol
no tweets from CB, did anybody watch him at 6 and is he ok??
join me at twitter if u twitt.
twitter.com/seekingthegold
Thanks for the reply Tommy. I have been reading this blog for a long time. I rarely post or ask questions because no one ever answers. Thanks again. Wait, WXman has answered a few questions. So, thanks to him also. NW gets the big totals, I live in Madison County and it’s hard to get the snow here. I hope it all plays out.
seekingthegold..
that sounds familiar, are you from TCP?
I watched him at 5:00 and 5:30… most of the WSAZ crew is doing the big Ashland parade tonight.
oh tx Shane, that makes sense. h
hey got to keep tabs on the GODFATHER of KENTUCKY weather!!!!
DON BAILEY
The 18z looks like it went to lunch.. shows a weaker low up the app mts, snow mainly in eastern ky and a warm up afterwards… interesting
Okay….I think its bad now. I’ve looked at the blog five seperate times today alone to see if Chris has updated! C-mon Chris…we’re all like kids in a candy storm when there is a POSSIBLE winter storm luring for the first couple days of December…haha
Thanks for the winter forecast Chris – as a transpanted south Lexingtonian working for the next year in SW Indiana, I’m hoping that being 180 miles from the snow dome will make all the difference this winter vs last year
Not really…looks much more like the 12Z Euro. Here is another trick to remember. If the 18Z GFS looks similar to the 12Z Euro…then the Euro solution is probably correct. Again, with no blocking to the NE of the U.S, there is nothing to keep the cold in here. The teleconnections across the globe are just not there…yet. Perhaps in January maybe?
I agree with mj
MJ, what do we need for this to occur?
NOBODY SAID NEXT WEEK STORM WAS GOING TO BE A GROCERY STORE RUNNER, BABY STEPS people!
several inches possible and that a HUGE DEAL seeing how the past WINTERS have gone. especially this early. 3-6 inche snow this early in parts of KY would be HUGE as far as what we have had for years and years.
who u got in DWTS, I say DONNIE O wins…
Looking at the latest water vapor and sat images I ask myself, are we underestimating the next few days potential?
That’s a good question Michael. We have a heck of a troough digging in out in the west, ample moisture in the south… does it all come together for fun and games?
In response to the two previous posts…
I guess that would all depend on where you are. 🙂
Don’t worry, though, guys….we’ll get a satisfier soon enough. Given the south and eastward propagation of the jet streams in the winter months, if this pattern continues…we’re in store for some decent snow….no doubt about it.
00z run for the first of december are terrible… the low plays ping pong in the south with 2 lows on top of ky and ohio… i do not trust it at all… the NAM for thanksgiving looks like cold and flurries/lgt snow, def northern ky… GFS/ NAM who will win?
Jrod,
From my experience, they’re about both half and half, but the NAM has better initialization and run-to-run consistency with a track. However, it can completely underdo or overdo precip amounts. The GFS has a problem with the overall track, and flips and flops like a dying fish on a beach with 37 hooks in its gills.
I usually take the nam with precip trends, and the gfs with track…but, convering these two into a solid consensus is not that easy to find.
Good luck. It’ll almost always be a blend of these two to come up with the correct answer this far out.
Actually, I think I confused myself on that post. In reality, I generally favor the NAM’s track, and the GFS’s precip amounts.
Sorry for the confusion.
well ou have hit the nail on the head