Good afternoon gang. Wow… what a fantastic day out there! Temps in the 60s with some sun and high clouds streaming in are making one heck of a fall weather day. Too bad it will be ending soon as showers move in for Tuesday into the first half of Wednesday.
I wanted to give you a quick update on things. Tuesday’s rains will likely be getting in a little earlier than anticipated with the south seeing rains in the morning. This stuff will quickly overspread the rest of the state and take us into early Wednesday. Temps will be cool for Tuesday with highs in the 50s.
Thursday looks like the best weather day of the next week with temps pushing 70 with some sunshine. That will set us up for a strong cold front to move through Friday with a line of showers and storms during the afternoon and evening. Some strong storms will be possible. This will be a windy front as well. Temps will make a run toward 70 ahead of the front on Friday.
The air behind this front is trending colder on the models once again. Here is what the European Model is showing…
Halloween Morning
That would mean the day starts off with showers before drying out as winds really crank from the west and eventually northwest. Highs in the 50s look good with 40s for Halloween trick or treaters.
Colder air then moves in for Sunday as we say hello to November…
That is a chilly day with temps in the upper 40s and low 50s for highs.
Looking down the roan… the Canadian and European Models are beginning to show the pattern the blog as been talking about. Here is the European Model for next Thursday Morning…
IF that map is correct… that looks awesome for a big time cold air outbreak for much of the country. A trough digging in east of Hawaii with a building ridge along the west coast all the way to Alaska says look out below! Throw in what may become the first Polar Vortex of the season forming in Canada feeding bitterly cold temps toward the trough digging into the states and you can see what I have been alluding to over the past few weeks. 
That’s it kids… have a good evening and take care.
i am not in a hurry to use up our cold air any bitter cold in november will be wasted likely. about a month from now into early december is when i will be ready for arctic air express becuase then we stand a chance for atleast some frrain or snow not just rain
Early November Arctic Air??? You think it is cold enough to support some decent snows???
NO & YES…
It will take several days of arctic air before the ground becomes cold enough for anything to stick..
But, snow falling, yes… It has happened before and it will happen again…
Plus, it all means nothing because WXman says “Warm & Dry” this winter….
All in good fun WXman… lol All in good fun…
GO Steelers…!!!
…
Just wanted to pass along,the leaves at the Kentucky River here in Jessamine county are well past their peak……they are dead and GONE! Think that means anything for the up coming winter?
Same old song and dance. The perpetual arctic air coming that never comes.
How ’bout them Steelers? I’m not a huge fan, but that was impressive.
I agree with Tommy. I’d rather not have the cold air right now when it will just make the rain colder, might as well have it when it can sustain snow.
The only positive that I can see in having artic air right now would be a hard freeze. That would take care of all those pesky yellow jackets! 😉
Yeah I’m getting excited about this winter… everything from the models to the oceans currents seem to be at least showing signs that maybe it could be a good winter!
And how bout them SAINTS! 6-0!
Id say this winter will be like our last winters we have had in eastky for the last 12 years or so. Cold and dry then warm and rain. Or a real cold rain. Same ole beat with a differnt drum
Same old song and dance…just posting maps that fulfill the fantasies. Look, the OP GFS and its ensembles have the trough over the western U.S. Coast with the southeast Ridge Popped up. Even the Euro ensembles have this. Obviously the OP euro with the trough out near Hawaii is questionable. Given the stong Pacific flow, I highly doubt we’ll see any arctic air push in here within the next two weeks. I may be wrong, and I’m cool with that, but that is based on the data that I’ve seen in the last few hours.
Still being a jerk I see… Some things never change….
Classless…
Are you jealous that CB has his own very successful blog, and no one gives a crap about you MJ..??? Just curious…
Go Steelers..!!!
If that’s all I post… why do you even bother visiting this site? Why is this site bookmrked by every NWS employee at 3 different offices if all it is a fantasy? Honest question here.
He just jealous, wannabe…
Don’t sweat it CB…
He just jealous…LMAO….
Go Steelers..!!!
Posted earlier but i get sent to moderation
If trees are bare already does that mean a bad winter?
Yea, I have a couple in moderation… lol
Now this is a harsh post. Now, ive read this blog for a while now. Chris Bailey in my opion is hard to beat. He is not allways right, and the nws pros certainly aint neither. MJ id put Chris up again you anyday. Id dare to come on somebodys blog and post such a post. ill keep coming here to get my weather reports, its free and its alot more accuract than the weather service my tax dollars go into
Just have to come and stir the pot don’t you? Must be great to be able to hide behind a forecast with letters and symbols and short hands and not have your face plastered on it. I have to deal with viewers who have problems with my forecast when it’s wrong, while you guys get to hide in your government office paid for by the tax dollars of citizens. Grow a spine, learn to deal with some criticism, and harden up.
And yes, the ensembles of the GFS and GGEM are both showing a huge zonal flow for next week, but just days ago they were showing a big time trough busting in here. I’m not buying anything any model puts out right now past the 5 day range. Once we get some more run to run consistency I might start, but until then, no way Jose.
what about the 4 day stretch of highs in the 40s MJ? if i remeber correctly CB nailed those at 7 or 8 days out, the nws at that time was calling for mid and upper 50s. if its a fantasay then why are the models showing it, sure its only a possibility as with all weather events. i may be wrong and i am cool with that but based on CB’s blog i dont see the 80s coming back anytime soon!
MJ why do you think you know it all.
Come to stir the pot? I don’t think so. I guess if I post possibilities that do not agree with Chris’ thinking then I guess I’m stirring the pot.
As for your spine comment, I think that is a little uncalled for. Did I direct some sort of attack at you? Did I question your forecast at some point? Though you don’t seem to have any problem questioning mine?
Honest answer? I do visit the site. Though I don’t have it bookmarked and and I know a few that do. I never said that all you post is fantasy, you simply took my comment out of context. Check your e-mail later…got something for you.
Hello, guy! I am absolutely acclaim that way of assessment and everything connected.