Good Friday everyone and welcome to the 4th of July holiday weekend. The weather has been anything but July like of late with one of the coolest starts to the month on record. Now that we are to the 4th… will thunderstorms spoil our fireworks fun? The blog has you covered.
Before we get to the weekend forecast… let’s talk about the October air of the past few days. What we have been seeing out there has been pretty incredible. Record cool high temps are being handed out like candy on Halloween of late. Check out some of the records from Thursday…
Jackson 67 All time cool high for the month of July
Covington 70 Coolest July 2nd high on record
Ashland 71 Coolest July 2nd high on record
Louisville 71 Ties coolest July 2nd high on record
Lexington 72 Ties coolest July 2nd high on record
Folks… that is some wild and impressive stuff during what is normally the hottest month of the entire year! I am amazed the weather community is not making a bigger deal out of this than they are. I guess when you had mid to upper 80s forecast for this week… you probably would rather not draw attention to it. 
This brings us to where we are today and that is the kickoff to the big holiday weekend. Unfortunately.. today looks like the best of the weekend as showers and storms will increase for Saturday and Sunday. Highs today will be much warmer but will still struggle to hit 80 in most areas. We should see more in the way of sunshine than in recent days so that’s a plus! 
Our 4th of July will begin with decent enough weather across much of the state. The radar will be lighting up with showers and storms for areas just to our northwest and these will be diving in by the afternoon and evening hours. The northern half of the state will see the highest risk for storms early on with that threat increasing into the south by the evening hours. Take a look at what the models are showing…
GFS 4th of July Evening
That map is not so good for folks hoping to see some fireworks displays across the area as it shows a cluster of rain and storms rolling through during the evening. I see no reason to disagree with it right now. Again… areas farther north will see the best threat for storms until later in the evening and overnight.
Temps on Saturday will be a tough call. There is likely to be a big spread with 70s north and 80s south.
The models also show more rounds of showers and storms rolling across the region into Sunday…
GFS Sunday Morning
NAM Sunday Morning
Saturday night into Sunday has my attention because it offers the possibility of some torrential rains and even some severe storms. This will be occurring on the nose of some very warm air trying to fight in from the southwest and this is usually a setup for heavy rainfall. We first started talking about this as a possibility last week at this time and the pattern continues to play out as we have been thinking.
If you are looking for some true summer heat… I have my eye on a ridge building across the plains by the end of next week. This may try to FINALLY bring us some hot temps!
The blog will be updated as needed through your holiday weekend so make sure you check back for the latest updates. Have a great Friday and take care.
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Good morning everyone and happy 4th weekend. I read the blog from last night, sounds as if it was a tie between the bugs and the people.:) Keep at them, maybe you can wear them down. Chris, I’m not sure I am going to enjoy a “guest” writing for you. If the weather gets wonky you’ll jump back in, right? Please? Some of us don’t trust any other source.
The cool summer is almost over, did I read that correctly? Then we’re back to the 3 Hs. This cool has been a wonderful treat but I guess the garden would appreciate some real heat and sun. The humidity can stay away. Stay safe this weekend everyone.
Jackson having the “all-time cool high for July” is a little misleading. It is true, but their all-time records only go back to the mid-1980’s. So I highly doubt its a real all-time record.
WEll, I guess I am square! Something came up and I couldn’t get in on the live blog last evening. I really hope that the fireworks displays don’t get rained and stormed out. Mother Nature has beautiful fireworks, too, but, July 4th comes only once a year.
I am going to have to go back and catch up…I don’t know what gardengram meant when she said you were having a ‘guest writer???!?!?’ Gees, Chris. You come over to Lexington and tease us this week, and start talking about changes upcoming on the blog, and now…this!!!!
By the way, the fireworks display in Somerset is set for tonight. Everyone have a SAFE and HAPPY Fourth of July weekend! (With emphasis on the word SAFE!);)
While it is true that Jackson’s records on date back to 1981. The 67 degree temp they recorded Thursday would be Lexington’s 2nd coolest July temp on record. The only other temp that would be cooler would have happened in 1895. Just giving you some perspective on how big a deal 67 degrees really is. Take care.
HAPPY 4th, EVERYONE!!! 🙂
…and of course…living in a subdivision, I have already had to go outside and wet down my roof because of idiots behind me shooting off ILLEGAL bottle rockets in my direction…last yr. on July 3rd, our neighbors of 5 months lost their home due to fireworks-WHY can’t people GET IT THRU THEIR HEADS??!-
Funniest part about this is…we live about 1/2 block from the City Police station….I reckon they’re ODing on donuts and not looking behind the building….