Good Monday everyone and welcome to a brand spanking new week. We are coming off a half and half weekend that is a good setup for the week ahead… except we will be doing it in reverse as we get the nasty weather over with early on. Once the bad stuff moves out… the weather says to heck with spring and tries to usher in summer warmth.
Before we talk about the good… let’s get the bad out of the way. Today will be another windy day with numerous showers around with temps in the 50s. Blah. The little weather tool known as a radar satisfies all your rain tracking needs…
We have fancy things called thermometers that can track the temps for you as well. 
Tuesday and Wednesday may be interesting forecast days as we might be able to start out each day with a touch of sunshine. Some very cold air will be in place aloft… any sunshine will create instability showers and perhaps even a thundershower. Winds will be rather gusty with chilly temps rolling on.
If you are a regular reader… you have been reading about me saying that this colder than normal April pattern will likely make a big time flip from chilly to very warm. That is coming this week! Thursday will be the day of change as we start out the day with some patchy frost and temps in the 30s. We will end it with sunshine and temps heading toward the 70s.
That is only the beginning as our pattern flips from this on Tuesday…
To this by the weekend…
That is a pattern that will send temps around here into the 80s by Friday and that will take us into next week. Several days of 80s are on the way and it is my belief temps may push 85 before all is said and done. That is very impressive for the month of April and just for laughs… I decided to take a look at where record highs were during this time frame and found those were in the upper 80s. I don’t think we can get there.
I do want to point out what else I am seeing with this pattern. The big time warmth of this weekend through next week is one that should eventually lead us toward an active period of severe storms. What usually happens is that we get the position of the ridge across the south or southeast to get shoved farther south putting us on the outer edge of the warmth where thunderstorms tend to roam. That would be late next week into the following week as of right now. We shall see. 
Have a great Monday my friends and take care.
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I kinda need to be updated in advance of this severe weather as SKYWARN may be activated
you all should get u a scanner radio and track SKYWARN communications via their freqs listed here
http://www.radioreference.com
I do feel that with this warmer weather and higher dew points/ humidity that we will have some big time storms coming in unlike before where we had less of this stuff to produce severe weather
It sure has been a cooler April so I am afraid May will be our prime severe weather month
what do u all think ?
Anytime we get temperatures in the 80’s in late April early May, it sets off my red flags to keep an eye out for severe weather. I will be keeping an eye on early next week.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_228l.gif
Sometime in the middle to end of next week would look like our best chance at this point.
Just imagine what those 80 degree readings would be if our ground wasn’t so wet!
As far as severe wx goes…it’s always possible and MUCH of our devestating wx has come with the temp. below 70. So I personally don’t think 80s will increase the odds. But we’ll see..
Based on what is posted today, it sounds like a hot and possibly stormy Derby Day!!
I got sunburned at Keeneland on Saturday and froze there on Sunday. Why do the girls wear the tiny sundresses when it’s raining and in the 50’s? Some things I shall never understand. 🙂
Morning to all. Thanks, Chris, for the update. I am looking forward to the warmer temps, but not the possibility of severe weather. Ah well, I guess it is a trade off.
Speaking of trade offs, Wxman, the other day you said that the long range that you were looking at showed 50s and rain on Derby Day. Are you still thinking that way? Or now, maybe just rain? I remember several derby days where it was cool, so that is not totally unusual. I just hope to see three or four days of sunshine before we get rain again. I don’t want to chase it away, but I don’t want it here like yesterday and today and tomorrow every other day, either.
Kentucky weather…….gotta love it!;)
Its good to see you still breathing Shane 😉
In the words of Will Ferrell in the movie “Old School”…. “I like it!!!!”
Well, GFS still wants to pull a longwave trough into the east for Derby Weekend. So I still think it’ll be cool on Derby Day. Rain chances though are still 50/50…hard to nail that down this far out.
Reports of my demise are always over estimated :P.
SHHHH!!!…dont say Old School this time of yr.!!…LOL..we only use that term for snowstorms that we never get…Lord knows we dont need that right now…LOL..LOL…
just another manic monday down here with rain,wind,and cold blah weather..I’m looking so forward to some sunshine and 80* days..so hopefully we can get the gardens rollin…
There is a distinct clearing line moving through KY now. We should see some sunshine later this afternoon..
well i miss reading updates on blog
GFS is picking up on scattered T-storms Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon, mainly across eastern KY. May not be a full-sunshine weekend afterall. Also…severe on Sunday???
Check the old blog out… I’ve updated it the last two days. I’m getting back into the habit. Just got a little burned out there for a while.
the last thing we need is more rain
GFS sure has sped up that front finally coming down, and making it much stronger. Previous runs were showing it not coming in till Wednesday Morning. I’m interested to see how the latest Euro paints this thing out.
14:30… Don’t you just love it when the forecast bombs, and what was going to be a miserable day slowly turns into a gorgeous afternoon!! Woohoo!!
Where?
KP..lol..it’s all the same whenyou look at it..men don’t get us ladies, and we ladies don’t get the men, most of the time.
My neighbors are like that-next door, the guy is an OTR driver Sun-Thursday..all day Fri-Sat he had his central a/c running full blast?! It would seem to me that he’d like the windows open to let in the air & let the staleness of the closed-up house out??! Then the ppl behind me…well, they have knocked out all their screens,constantly hanging out the windows, and I’ve even seen them climbing in & out of said windows..even during the snows & ice, the windows were open…but then again..they do have this strange glow-in-the-dark Elvis stand-up (or it’s a shade…?!)in their back BR window….
exactly where because its been nothing but rain and clouds all day here in my area so forecast did not bomb
Rain? The radar has been mostly free of anything all day. And only eastern KY has clouds…the western half of the state is cleared out. Heck they are in the mid 60s west of I 65 and we should start warming up here in the LEX area now…
I’m just northeast of Lexington in Bourbon County and as of 4 o’clock, it is still windy and cloudy here. It’s been raining on and off all day and some of the rain was the seriously nasty kind that blew against the windows very loudly. Definitely not a good day here!
HORRIBLE day here rain off and on all day NO sun at all!! I hate it!!
almost 5 not even a peek of sunshine and 55 degrees atm with low clouds and looking at this image i don’t see any sun being in Eastern KY today and prob not tomorrow either and atm just a small clearing around BG take a look http://www.weather.com/weather/map/interactive/40906?from=36hr_maps&zoom=5&interactiveMapLayer=ussat
Nothing but sunshine here in Lexington.
went from Cloudy to Mostly Cloudy now got a peek of sunshine
Rain starting to move in again.
intresting day today with sun the clouds and rain then sun, this resulted in a double rainbow today in versailles i’ll send pics to chris!!!!
HUGE rainbow in Lexington. I took pics. Chris, I forget your email addy.
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