2pm Update
Good afternoon everyone. I just wanted to drop by with a quick WOW map for Monday and Tuesday’s snow that is coming our way. YES it is going to snow and YES we are likely to put snow on the ground! Any other agency dismissing this threat should be laughed into oblivion! 
Regardless… here is your WOW map from the GFS showing snowfall for Monday and Tuesday…
HOLY COW!
You definitely want to check back with me through the weekend on this one folks!!! Take care.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Good Friday everyone and thanks a bunch for stopping by the blog. We dodged the severe weather Thursday afternoon and evening and no one is going to be too upset about that. Winds and heavy rains have been working across the state overnight and those will continue into early today.
Showers will become more scattered from west to east as we go through the day and you can track the rains out of here on radar…
Temps today will be on the cool to even chilly side with upper 40s to low 50s for many. Winds will continue to be gusty before winding down later this evening. Clouds will clear out tonight allowing for temps to hit the low to mid 30s to start out of Saturday. Highs later Saturday will reach the 60s under mainly sunny skies.
Sunday will be windy and warm as temps head toward the 70s! This will be ahead of a mega front that moves in Sunday night. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along this front from west to east Sunday afternoon and evening. The cold coming behind this front is nothing short of impressive!! Temps will drop some 40 degrees into the lower 30s by Monday morning and will likely stay in the 30s all day long. A ton of moisture will be around in a strong northwesterly flow that will be enhanced by weak little systems diving in here from the northwest. What does this mean for us? To be honest… snow! Check it out…
GFS Monday Morning
Monday Evening
Tuesday Morning
Seriously, folks… that is a wicked setup and if this were winter, your friendly weatherdude would be honking about how much snow this could produce around here. As is… we are LIKELY to put some snow on the ground Monday into Tuesday. Say what? Yep… there is an increasing chance for many areas seeing snow on the ground. 
Check out the GFS snow forecast for Monday and Tuesday (make sure you are sitting down)… 
Here is hoping that is nowhere close to being right!! My fear is that it is beginning to pick up on the snow threat and that is something we will follow through the weekend.
Beyond that… the pattern does not look much better with winter trying to ruin our spring!
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Have a great Friday and take care.
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Well, Chris, regardless of whether that map is right or not, I give you props for putting the numbers in the right places. Shouldn’t leave anyone confused about where the snow could set up.
I thought winter’s last gasp was over, but maybe not! 🙂
For today, mostly cloudy until early afternoon for most of Central Kentucky. Slight chance of showers mainly central and east after daybreak. Chance of rain 20%. Clearing from west to east through the afternoon. Highs in the low to mid 60’s west, mid to upper 50’s to around 60 east.
😉
Yeah, let’s see how wrong that one could be. hehe….. 🙂
LOL…
And that’s why I’m not a professional meteorologist. (AHEM). Back to our regularly scheduled programming…lol
So does that mean Chris is only leaving comments on twitter now and not here?
Bah Humbug!
I’m with Renee…what exactly does it mean about comments…do we not come here anymore?
What a weather forecast.
I hope not. I went to twitter last night and signed up, but I have no idea how to do anything else. I saw Chris, but no other comments
Good morning all.
Well yesterday worked out as expected here. Models were correct in taking the low directly up the OH River…therefore virtually no severe wx here. The roller-coaster continues though…
I am glad everyone is safe and I hope everyone got some good rains last night, I know we did here in Jessamine County. Please keep my family in your prayers, my grandmother passed away yesterday evening. Stay warm everyone it is chilly out there!
AH SHUCKS!!!..hey boys!! git da shotguns ready. we-sa goin huntin. dat der gfs is sayin tucky gonna get 3 inch’s of snow..WE GOIN HUNTIN BOYS!!what e’er a gfs is we gonna hunt it!! kill it!!..den we gonna skin da rascal and mount it on da farplace..
……………………………….
LOL..LOL…LOL…LOL….
O.K. who ever order that MESS of a forecast. WE SEND IT BACK TO SENDER!!
everything is in full bloom, green grass,etc.etc.etc…we dont need S..SN..SNO…SNOW!!!!!!!!! NOW..maybe back in OH say LIKE OCT.-EARLY MARCH!!!…lol..
O.K. who ever order that MESS of a forecast. WE SEND IT BACK TO SENDER!!
everything is in full bloom, green grass,etc.etc.etc…we dont need S..SN..SNO…SNOW!!!!!!!!! NOW..maybe back in OH say LIKE OCT.-EARLY MARCH!!!…lol..
OH..the moderation moments..dont ya just love them..:(
O.K. who ever order that MESS of a forecast. WE SEND IT BACK TO SENDER!!
AH SHUCKS!!!..hey boys!! git da shotguns ready. we-sa goin huntin. dat der gfs is sayin tucky gonna get 3 inch’s of snow..WE GOIN HUNTIN BOYS!!what e’er a gfs is we gonna hunt it!! kill it!!..den we gonna skin da rascal and mount it on da farplace.. now lets GIT R DONE !!
well the nws has no accums quickly forgetting april 07 if the gfs higher qpf numbers work out then those snow totals can be realized given .5 qpf on the 06z gfs for most of us over a 48 hr period.
sunday will depend on instabilty we’re under see text at this time by the spc.
I see they have you on some good Meds there Tim 😉
yea CB i tell you what a nice snowfall would really do me good, i’d take how ever much you have to offer
That map is just INSANE.
as long as we git all them there MOS I’m in! LOL TIM!
Can I refuse delivery of this forecast?!
My opinion is that there is NO WAY that GFS snowfall map is going to happen (when does it ever??) BUT….I will say that GFS has been consistently showing a concentrated area of snowfall in eastern KY. So 1-2″ on the ground won’t surprise me. 🙁
Hi guys I thank god I just got my power back on. I was without it for 6 hours. I dont know how you guys did it for days!!!This will really help my cold and strep throat lol.We are in the 6-10 inch range for snow wow!!!!!!!!!!
The ground temps are probably way too warm for that much snow. It would have to snow really, really heavy for it to stick.
But Kentucky weather is full of suprises!
Tim did you have your back surgery? I had a cervical fusion in the neck done in Lexington in the 90s.they took out the 2 disc in the neck and took bone from my hip and put in my neck.I have done great.Dr Ravin did it at St Joes.He said they were worse then what had shown on the test they were severly ruptured.I put it off as long as i could they tried everything then one night at work my right arm went numb and my husband took me on to lex that night during a big snowstorm!!!!!!!!!!
4-6 lol thats a bit overdone but an inch or two def looks possible. its amazing what a difference 2 months makes in early february 48 and cloudy would have been a nice day but today its considered ugly, heck atleast it isnt raining. if somehow we got 4-6 inches in here it’d be cool…i have never seen bradford pairs in bloom and a thick snow blanket on the ground, that’d be awesome!!!
Unbelievable!!!!
http://www.wsaz.com/news/headlines/42313372.html
This was the loudest thing i’ve ever heard.I live about five houses down from where this happened.
Exactly. It’s been in the 60/70s for how many days now? And we’re going to be above freezing during the day Monday and Tuesday both. So it would have to snow like we haven’t seen it ever snow before to accumulate 6″ on this ground…and that just ain’t happenin’.
Glad I wasn’t drinking any when I seen this update, lol.
*anything
I think he has still yet to go through the therapy i have kinda lost touch dealing with my own medical issues atm but from what i last read suppose to go through intensive PT and see how he progresses and if he doesn’t do well then surgery
Thanks Chris! Bring on the snow, the fish aren’t biting yet anyway…LOL!
I just signed up on Twitter…Whats the big deal about it or is it just me??? 😉
Thats all you hear about anymore, don’t see anything special about it…:) Oh well, maybe I’ll get it eventually. 😉
Heatmizer, where are you??!!
i registered on twitter, i like it better myself
CB…this white stuff they call snow…it won’t be hanging around long, will it? I love the snow, but I was getting used to the other stuff…kinda.
I really hope that is a LATE April fools joke. I’m working on the getting some things out in the garden. I hope the snowdome holds up. Thought I’d never say that but, I’m ready for warmth and my fresh veggies.
SO EXCITED!!!! BUT THE BAD THING IS THAT IT MAYBE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS BECAUSE ACCUWEATHER SAYS HIGH WINDS WITH THAT SNOW.
Andy, what kind of medical issues are you dealing with?
it’s to easy to forget a few weeks ago when we were in the same spot 70 then, snow no way it will stick i thought the same but it did and forecasts were way underdone on totals.
that kutchria formula does not take into account ground temps but with the snow in march I overestimated the warm ground along with many others. I’d go half of any map 5:1 ratios, the first comment was looking at chris’s earlier map with the 12z qpf.
right now i’d say lexington an inch total for the two days,with some melting maybe locally more with 2-4 se ky.
i liked jkl thoughts on the analogs they found.
DID SOME WORK TODAY ON FINDING AN ANALOG TO THE SYNOPTIC SETUP
PROGGED FOR THE EASTERN U.S. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RESULTS INCLUDE
APRIL 18 1983… APRIL 17 2001 AND APRIL 24 2005. OF NOTE IS THAT
ACCUMULATING SNOW FELL WITH EACH OF THE ANALOG STORM SYSTEMS WITH
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A TRACE TO AN INCH OR SO IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BUT UP TO 4 TO 5 INCHES FOR THE MORE FAVORABLE HIGHER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER.
hpc winter products agree with chris’s map some spots under a slight risk for 4 inches of snow monday.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif
Dr. Raven is who did my Mom’s back fusion. She didn’t like his no nonsense type attitude. How did you feel about him?
Quit it Chris!!! Everytime I check back those maps look more forbidding than ever. I think I’m going to go into denial!
Bake int he late 1980’s when I was a student at UK, we had a hughe snow….about 18 inches or so, one April weekend…so it CAN happen!
No blog I have seen is more informative than this one here