Good Monday to one and all. The new month is starting off on a rather frigid note for the state and for much of the country. March is known for some wild weather and we are seeing that with the cold here and the big snows in the southern and eastern parts of the country. The pattern as a whole looks wild over the next few weeks!
Let’s start with the cold of today. Temps this morning will drop into the teens in most areas and only recover into the mid and upper 20s for highs. Winds today will continue to be gusty creating wind chills in the single digits at times… especially early. Tuesday should not be too much different with highs near 30 after lows that may dip toward 10 in a few areas. I know… I don’t like it either.
You can track the temps and chill here…
Current Temps
Wind Chill
Temps will FINALLY begin to come up some on Wednesday with 40s across the region. Normal temps this time of year are in the 50s and we should get there Thursday and maybe do that some better by Friday. The GFS says temps head toward 70 for Friday and Saturday ahead of a cold front…
A word of caution here… the other models are not as warm and are much wetter from later this week into the weekend. They actually turn fairly chilly over the weekend. Given the fact that I am now in full blown spring weather mode… I would bet on the cold winning out! 
Did someone say cold? Well… whatever warmth we get later this week then again early next week is likely to be a false start to spring. In looking at the pattern for the second and third weeks of this month… I am not a happy camper because all signs point toward cold and probably some March snows.
Just check out the GFS…
March 12th
March 14th
March 16th
Man that is some early January cold the models are all hinting at for the middle of March! Let me be clear that I want no part of snow and cold until later this fall! But… this is not a pattern that is very spring friendly over the next few weeks.
I will have another update later today so be sure to check back. Until next time… take care.
As ready as I am for spring, I hope we get one good SNOW, it is hard to play in ice and sleet lol 🙂
Snow in Pike? There is here
I have around 1 inch and it is pouring here.
Enough to get us out? If so, they’ll make the call in the next 10 minutes or so.
I don’t see them having school today.
1 hour delay???? Mr Wagner told my husband we didn’t have any more 1 hour delays!!!
NO SCHOOL in Letcher County
It is 20 degrees here, a one hour delay would do nothing for me.
Yeah I’m showing 18.5…..nothings going to melt….I bet they’re just doing this so it doesn’t look like they’re jumping the gun….I figure they’ll end up cancelling.
I won’t mention any names but someone else up there told me that if there were no more one hour delays and that if we had to delay that we would have to make up the whole day. There’s gonna be a whole lot of MAD people if we go in today and still have to make it up.
No gun jumping here, it is pouring:)
If that is true, why go in???
Floyd is on a 2 hour delay. Snowing in parts of Floyd County.
I am not so sure that that is the case anyway, because didn’t they go to counting hours a few years ago?
I think they’re still trying to get those calamity days so they have to give the appearance that they tried their best to have school. That’s just me thinking though….I bet they’ll end up cancelling…I’m not getting in the shower yet!
I promise, Mr Wagner told us that, Mr Johnson said it and so did the person that signs our paychecks. I said it doesn’t make any sense but what does????
AND we’re not on SNOGO yet….that’s weird! A very hopeful person could think maybe they didn’t bother calling them yet because they’re going to wait and call them when they end up cancelling!!! Is that wishful thinking or what??????
So, shen my check says that I have 140.37 days for sick leave, I actually have 141? 🙂
Everything here is covered, even the road in front of my house. I don’t see why they would even considered having school if we had to make it up anyway.
GOOD QUESTION!!!! LOL!!!
no snow here in belfry. 17*.
I think you should go in and tell your principal you would like to take off .37 of a day because you like round numbers!!!
ohh god u kill me CB, u love winter weather and it still WINTER but u say I hate it bring on spring.
geesh man.
a snow in march is no different than in december if u are a TRUE SNOW LOVER.
u all kill me, ahhh BRING ON SPRING,,,.UIJKL.HJK
bull u WANT SNOW, so donr get down if we get snow in march or u are not a REAL SNOW LOVER, that goes for all u all.
YEA I like wearm air too, but if i can get a snow I LOVE IT AS WELL.
i see a 4 inch plus snow before we are thru anyway, so I guess there be some mad people on blog since u all are done with winter.
Pouring the snow here one inch+ on the ground.
who said i was done with winter rolo the words never came out of my mouth
Chris, the snow is beautiful in Floyd County. I had to scroll down the page to see the radar. If you see something please share it with us. You are not giving up on winter. If you see of possible shift let us know. It is pouring in Wayland.
LOL. We get snow on the night we weren’t supposed to and didn’t get it the night of the advisories. Welcome to Kentucky!
Closing in on 3 inches. It’s a winter wonderland out there!
Good morning.I woke up to everything covered in Pikeville with a nice snow dusting 18 degrees.Did you guys see where traffic is backed up in SC for 30 miles and people have slept in their cars?
road covered
That’s OK! If it the models point to snow like the last one- we have absolutely nothing to worry about anyway.
😉
Bring on Spring! 🙂
At least then we do not have to deal with models letting us down 100% of the time on big snow opportunities. They are pretty good at the rain part 🙂
FLOYD CO. CLOSED.
THIS IS A CROCK….if we have to make up a whole day for this someone should call KEA
well not even with SNEAKY SNOW, does it snow here…lol…been watching the radar looks like alot of folks EAST of ME AS USUAL..is getting some SNEAKY SNOWSHOWERS THIS MORNING …LESLIE co. looks to be the sweet spot..according to the radar loops…
Oh well…as usual just another miss for my backyard…
Fortunately, the 06Z GFS run shows nothing like what that run Chris posted shows.
Also, I was talking about how the “other models” have sucked this Winter and finally someone over at the NWS verified the same thing this weekend so now I know I’m not crazy at least. 🙂 So hopefully 70 is in the picture this coming weekend.
Didn’t hear it from me, either, Rolo. 🙂 I am a true snow lover…just taking the attitude of “if it happens, wonderful!, and if it doesn’t, I’m not disappointed”
oh…let me add as long as no ice and loss of power comes with that snow.
What’s your location, Jared?
WXman, I don’t even look at the models anymore, they flip-flop so much I have lost both interest and believability in ANY of them. Until it actually happens, I’m NOT a believer! 🙂
getting some flurries now in my backyard.
You also saw a giraffe hugger for Saturday 😉
Billy G to resign after season.
I trust the source.
OK Rolo, you have my full attention here! Forget the snow (LOL!) I want to hear your info about Billy G! 🙂
Sure…
It is Cold!
That would be the best thing for them. The man can’t speak, hates reporters, wouldn’t even shake Darrin Horn’s hand at Rupp, and doesn’t play his good athletes while guys like Porter literally throw games away. If Billy G goes…UK basketball might survive.
BS, both you and rolo are brilliant basketball minds. Coach is not going anywhere. It was confirmed that he did shake Horns hand if that makes you feel better. Fire coach now and nobody would want the UK job. It is nut jobs like you two that give UK fans a bad name, wondering if you two are even UK fans. Seems like Wax is a WKU fan. I would like to know the infamous source of rolos.
The Euro and GFS setting up a war again for this weekend. Euro wants to dig in the cold air for Sunday while the GFS develops a big storm over the plains and sucks the heat in as it approaches. I’m leaning towards the GFS for the time being. However even the GFS Ensembles are picking up on the colder pushing in for that storm on the 12th Chris showed… that’s going to be one to keep an eye on.
Jeff, did you play water polo or something? Because you obviously have zero basketball experience man.
according to ncep the euro still has the highest accuracy level of any model for the medium and long range periods though all the models have been awful this year. remember a week ago when the gfs had 70’s to start march off like a lion and the euro had the cold, our long range test. every forecaster has there prefrence in the end the models will likely agree on something.
wait till barnhart figures out not making the ncaa will result in lost revenues.
No, but apparently you did because your head must have been under water for long periods of time.
Rolo,sometimes I belive someone is commenting in your named do you really think Chris deserve that? I sure don’t…..
I’m sticking with a warm up to and the ridge holds till monday. I’m not sold on the gfs extreme cold compared to avg for the middle of the month either.
Exactly…a week ago GFS showed 70s sometime during the first few days of March. Look at the current forecast…WARM during the end of this week and weekend. I think it’s doing a pretty amazing job, considering..
Chris also touched on an important note. This is what I call a “transition” we are going into…where we are between seasons and so the models will all be nuts because sometimes we will have springlike sytems being forecasted with Winter data sets, and once the warm weather bias kicks in with the models we’ll have winterlike systems. It’s real tough this time of year period.
I don’t see where the GFS shows this cold. The last two runs have our highs 40s+ through the 15 day period. Which run are you guys looking at?
Thanks, Chris. Well, it figures. You get into spring mode and then it will snow. I know, I am just like you. And I will wager that if a big one should come, it will be when we either least expect is, or when we don’t want it.
Either way, I can see signs of spring, as our yard is already greening up.
By the way, we got over 2 inches of rain on Saturday. 😉
http://www.wspa.com/spa/news/local/article/traffic_back_up_on_i-85/15154/
If that works that is a video of sc drivers on 85 backed up for 30 miles they had to sleep in their car no restroom food.
I wrecked my husband’s truck yesterday so boy I am in the Dog and the Cat house.Marsha Patty I might have to come stay with you lol!!!!!!
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemble850mbTSLPNA324.gif
I was referring to the 0z Ensembles towards the middle of the month, trying to dig a trough in.
In something completely unrelated to weather but just as hard to predict… the Dow Jones Industrial has dropped below 6850 as of 12:30. I’m glad I have no money in the market right now. I pray we get out of this economic mess soon, I know several people who are hurting because of the economic conditions right now.
I admit I was reluctant to watch a HBO special on the UNC / DUKE rivalry. I
just knew I would have to see celebrations and cutting of nets that I just
didn’t want to stomach. Not to mention a certain someone hitting a shot
against a certain team that has been replayed to death. But, I am glad I did.
It reminded me of what I had forgotten and/or didn’t pay attention to
when it happened.
Both Dean Smith and Coach K were vicariously close to being
ran out of town by thier fans after just 2-3 years of their coaching tenure.
Dean Smith in his 3rd year got off the team bus only to see his likeness
being burned in effigy.
Coach K barely made it pass his 3rd year at Duke. Fortunately for both
their institutions, the AD saw fit to give them an adequate chance to make
things right. As we all know…the rest is history. Both have gone on to
great coaching careers, with both probably ending up in the HOF.
Many UK fans need to take a history lesson and learn from what has
transpired before them. Just short of 2 years is not an adequate amount
of time to make a program yours. I just wish this special was required
viewing for all of BBN. Just maybe we could all learn a valuable lesson.
Shane on those same lines my sister and brother in law in Indy said the co he works for put his retirement on an Ira and now it has lost at least half his value. Looks bleak doesn’t it?
Sunny today in Pikeville Temp 25.Why couldn’t we have had those temps the other night?
OK, that chart shows -4°C..which at the surface and converted to F would be low 40s. Sure, that’s below average but I wouldn’t call it cold just yet.
The IRA’s if they were investing in good groth stock mutual funds will reboung within 3-5 years. Crystal, if your sister and bro-in-law don’t plan on retiring in the next 3-5 years, they’ll be fine.
Well thanks teacher Nate my brother in law was but not now he said he would have to work till the value comes up.My sister is a teacher in Indiana.
Afternoon all. It is a balmy 27 degrees here in Somerset at this time. Wind is blowing, but don’t know wht the wind chill is, as our weather station is off line.
Crystal, your brother-in-law is like a lot of us. Mine has lost value, too, and one of the guys I work with has lost 13,000 since Jan 1. Mine is not hardly that bad, but I don’t have as much in it as he does, either.
So, Chris, you still don’t think we are done with snow? Well, you are probably right, since it doesn’t matter to me either way right now. I am just through hoping for snow this winter.
Rolo, that does NOT mean I would not be glad if we got a big one, it just means that if we do, fine, and if not, I won’t care. I will just take it as it comes.
Chris, looking forward to the next update. Have a good afternoon.
Huh? Springtime datasets? Winter datasets?
Maybe I misunderstand your comment, but there is no such thing as spring time and winter datasets. The data that goes into the models is what is observed. Yes, there are some radiation equations that get tweaked based on the Julian calendar, but the data going into the model does not get tweaked based on the season.
Crystal I know you are a nurse can you help me with something I have got to go for a borderline stree test Thrusday and I am scare to death because I do not know what to expect I went to the gym today and worked for 18 minutes on the trendmill I have had so many people to tell me everything can you tell me how high they want your heart rate during one of them test my e-mail is adkinsl@mrtc.com please e-mail and let me know if you can tell me anything
Crystal you come right on and I just glad you are ok…. Did you wreck in Paintville there was a wreck there at the lights yesterday……
it’s very bad and will likely get worse my family’s investments have shrunk by half.
12z gfs has 30’s for highs for days 14 and 15 which would be over 20* below avg.
NO NEED TO GET TO READY FOR SPRING, SIGNS POINTING TO WINTER WEATHER HANGIN TOUGH RIGHT THROUGH EASTER!!!.. AND THATS IN MID APRIL!!!…THAT COULD BE BLAH FOR SURE…
unfortuantely the signs i looked at today show the potentail for colder weather to return by next monday and a cold rest of march compared to avg.
the operational euro is also hinting at cold returning as well today. this is different than the euro weeklies and long range models i looked at a few days ago i used my mar forecast for above norm temps.
tommorow is a state wide tornado drill we can drill on the blog as well a good rule of thumb before severe weather a day before is to check the blog for updates
a drill update i came up with, the made up spc indicates there will be a high risk of a tornado drill tommorow as atmospheric condtions are favorable for it.
the nws has more severe weather awareness material on there site.
just so I can get my peas in the ground this month!!!!!
you’ll be in my thoughts Marsha. good luck dear
No in Pikeville.
40s is just as low as 39 is high for Feb 😉
A couple of thoughts after reading the blog today:
Rolo:
You are my friend and we have had some great times over at e-ponies, but please stop with the hyperbole about Billy G. leaving after this year. You know as well as I, he will not leave after just 2 years. I am NOT a Billy fan, but in fairness, lets give him another year to see what he can do…
WXman:
Your thoughts on weather and UK basketball are stale. No one can say anything about weather or models or cold anymore without you piping in how warm it was, is and gonna’ be… Seriously, debating that the temp at 40 is warm for March..?? HUH..?
And, my God man, did Porter steal your girl or something..? I have never in my live seen someone so hung-up on one player… UK’s failures this year are NOT one players fault, period… come on…
OK, now lets all get ready for SPRING, March Madness and some good old fashion KY Thunder Storms..!!!
…
Rolo is on target. From what I am hearing, Billy G. is going to step away after the end of this year.
I got a corn dog and a shot of Knob Creek that says he won’t..??
…
Who are you guys hearing that coach will step down from? Your inner being??
I have very good sources on this and there is no chance he’s going anywhere… I can guarantee you that. Just trust me on this one…
You can email me at jesusfan32@hotmail.com if you have a legitimate source and I’ll tell you my source… IF I think your source is legit…
Another thing… Why do some of you rag on a good christian college kid giving his all for the University that you cheer for… If you want to critique and tear down the coach do as you please, he does make millions.
But, I can’t understand doing that to Porter or anyone else on the team. These are KIDS and they are working their *sses off everyday in practice and the classroom… What is the kids supposed to do– “No Coach I’m not playing tonight, the fans say I suck.” Get real…
Porter is a good christian kid who works his tail off every single day for the University you love….
I can understand ragging on Coach, but leave the kids out of it. They a working VERY hard every single day, in the classroom and court. How would you guys feel if this was your kid out there on the court being ran down every crazy fan gets a chance??? It’s not passion, it’s craziness…
Sorry but this is not correct. The models DO have a seasonal bias.
I’ll tell you my source right now, it’s no big secret…
Mitch Barnhart says his staying, that’s good enough for me…
…
All I’ve heard are rumors…and they are just THAT…RUMORS! 😉
“A rumor without a leg to stand on will get around some other way.” John Tudor
Ain’t that the truth…lol
…
Really? That’s interesting considering that the models do not know what season we’re in. They are not programmed that way.
So… Is there a big ole snow storm for this coming weekend showing on the models yet?? lol
I think they like teasing us… One day the heavens will open up and actually drop one on us and be like the boy who cried wolf…
Good bye NGM! The last run of one of the oldest models is in the books.
bye ngm! it actually did alright with the last storm but with the nam and ruc the ngm has become less relevant.
hail criteria for severe storms will now be 1 inch instead of 3/4 inch. proved to be a good move in kansas video on this site.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/
Mitch, thanks for that link. It offered good information.
Looks like a relatively quiet week at least thru friday. I am wishing for spring. Doing some needed work around the property today has given me a headache and sniffles again..Just cant win………….have a great day all!
Susan, thanks I am having a Grader Exercise Test
Thanks Mitch, good information there and sounds like a wonderful idea to me. Cutting back on the number of severe t-storm warnings issued for these smaller less threatening events should help get the public to take the warnings a bit more serious now.
i like it to. I’ll post it again tommorow for those who don’t get the chance to see it.
To be honest I never really used it much while forecasting. I used it to help confirm big events but that was about it. And it did handle this last storm fairly well. A good final note for the old “No Good Model”. Guess it got the last laugh.
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