Good afternoon everyone! Dropping by to upgrade to WINTER STORM THREAT for late Monday through Tuesday across much of the state. Significant amounts of snow and ice will be possible during this time. Here is the threat map…
Kudos to the NWS in Louisville for putting out a WINTER STORM WATCH for much of central Ky… including the Lexington metro area. A good discussion from them this morning as well in pointing out that the models were likely not cold enough or far enough south with the low level arctic dold air.
Keep in mind… the models are still getting a handle on the amount of precip and the temp profile so the various snow and ice maps will change with each run. The trend toward wetter and colder is becoming evident right now. Hereare the last few runs of the GFS snowfall…
NAM
The NAM is a little farther north with the heavy snow…
Those maps do NOT include ice accumulation! Both show sleet and freezing rain much farther south and that could get VERY nasty before it’s over.
It is looking more and more like moderate to heavy precip will be pushing into the state Tuesday. Temps of 32 or below are going to be tough for the models to scour out and they are likely a tad too warm and too fast in trying to take late day temps above freezing.
It could get ugly folks! I will update as needed through the day so stay tuned. Take care.
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12z gfs has an ice nightmare over central kentucky. this is going to be a humdinger!!!! weenie going crazy!!!
Thanks Chris…do you think this will be a repeat of the 2003 storm—ice in Central Kentucky, floods in the south and east? The ground is saturated here in the mountains with recent rains and snowmelt.
Thanx CB.. Keep us posted, we know you will…
Folks, TAKE precautions NOW..! Do not be caught off guard…
If the models pan out, it will get real bad, real fast..!
I probably will not let my daughter go to work Monday Night..!
…
Lets all hope that this one hits all snow and no ice. Crazy winds out there today. Hope everyone has their christmas blowups tied down. Thanks for the update Chris.
Maybe someone can help me out here. My son has a baseketball game in Somerset on Monday night. We are travelling from Corbin. Any thoughts on what the weather may be like for my drive. Husband works nights, have to drive it alone with the kids.
Thanks a bunch,Chris!! Here’s hoping to more snow/less ICE!!?
Hey, y’all..I need some tech help here-anyone??! I’m not able to post as much here as I’d like because everytime I come here, my comp seems to get ‘hung up/stuck” on this page, and either have to sit here for a while, but mostly restart. No trouble on other pages,just this one??! Any ideas? (Yes..I am using the “kyweathercenter”, not the other..)
I can still recall old Mister Barnslow getting out every morning and nailing a fresh load of tadpoles to the old board of his. Then he’d spin it round and round, like a wheel of fortune, and no matter where it stopped he’d yell out, “Tadpoles! Tadpoles is a winner!” We all thought he was crazy. But then we had some growing up to do.
We could be dealing with this instead of whats coming
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Fargo&state=ND&site=FGF&textField1=46.8766&textField2=-96.8171&e=0
u guys keep wishing for it, u get what u want. A CRIPPLING ICE STORM with olnly ohio river counties getting snow.
I am pulling against u all getting this, NOBODY DESERVES A ICE STORM. NOBODY and that what this will be, with maybe a couple inches of snow on top.
BILLY G is really worried about this ICE stuff for this storm, so if I weas u all I be praying that this one MISSES.
So I guess that southern KY has nothing to worry about? We will just get rain?
should be fine, it will be in the 50 to 60 here at 7pm tomm evening.
That’s a relief. Thanks for answering.
Andy Rose are you sure winter storm watches are out for eastern ky because jackson homepage don’t have it for us
Andy Rose are you sure eastern ky is in the winter storm watches because jackson does not have us in that on the homepage????
Rolo:
Of course, we all want ALL snow, no doubt… I really do hope everyone gets prepared for the “possible” ice…
Every time you refer to “Billy G.” i always do a double take.. lol
For a brief moment, I’m thinking Billy G the coach…
…
Sorry getting used to the new computer…..
Marsha, I don’t think Jackson NWS has issued a warning for our area. Seems like everyone is saying we are to just get rain. At least in the Corbin/London area.
I said for everybody but SE KY is under the gun me and Tim will be sunbathing while the rest of the state is under the watch
on the weather channel when this front pushed through it dropped the temp in lawrence kansas from 59 to 37 in ONE HOUR this front means business. i still cant believe what 12z gfs shows if that verifies alot of the state is going to be a distaster. it went qfp crazzzzzy
yeah our area we can wear shorts almost ;)currently 59.2 on my front porch
You can come visit me and Tim guarantee no winter stuff here this week
http://i221.photobucket.com/albums/dd227/coloradofella/winterstorm1.gif
my call
Is morgan co under the watch?
I want no part of an ice storm, and I’m glad for once that southern KY is getting left out. However, I don’t want to get too comfortable and be caught off guard. NWS in JKL now saying 70% change of sleet mixed with snow Monday night. I don’t think it said that earlier.
should have said “chance”
the threat line has moved well south check it out
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_pice_gt_25.gif
Do you think that any significant winter weather will get as far as southern KY? Not usually this worried, but the thought of driving 45 minutes in ice along with 2 kids has been very nervous.
i cant answer that with total knowlegdge but i think far southeastern ky will mainly be rain, but dont take my word for it, i am a weenie lol!!! my backyard is always the bullseye
Debbie, mine has done the same thing. I thought it was just my computer being a pain in the bahookie as my little one calls it lol. At any rate, we are heading out to the park, even though it is a bit chilly with the wind, get them out and enjoy while they can! 😛
Hey All For the last two hours there’s been 3400 homes without power in the Versailles area including me and I suspect Mitch as well. The wind is fierce!
just got my power back on patty after getting home from chruch.
this looks like a major winter storm folks.
Mitch, Tommy or anybody with knowledge of this storm, i’m right in between morehead & ashland, what kind of weather are we possibliy looking at here? We aren’t under a wsw here, i know that we are under a different weather office, so i was just wondering if we were in the snow & ice threat or if it was looking like rain…
Wow…it’s looking like a major weather problem developing! I’m in Grayson, Ky. 20 minutes west of Ashland, Ky. I love the snow, but the ice is too dangerous. Very pretty, but too dangerous!
What do you guys forecast for Grayson, Ky? Northeastern, Ky…
That is hilarious, I had pretty much the same question megan… lol
for everybody but SE Ky me and Tim will have flip flops on
I am right on the Powell and Wolfe County line and as always we are right on the precip line. We got a lot of snow from the last system does anyone know what we may get here out of this next one?
This is what they are saying for Barbourville
Monday Night: Showers, mainly before 8pm. Low around 38. North northeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
patty, My wife called and said our power was out on 33. She got back from church and couldn’t get the garage door open. She depends on that more than keys. Don’t relish an ice storm but I’ll be ready if that what happens. Mitch, What are your thoughts on ice vs snow?
Guys I don’t want a ice storm its getting close to christmas I want eletric so I can make my christmas goodies and my cristmas lite need electric so wish for that ice to go away…..Besides at night I’m running into everything with the lights on I’m be in the danger zones with no electricity……
Wake up Mr. Rose…It’s only a dream. Not here this time. 🙂
Um..Chris is showing a map where the threat is at least as far southeast as part of Floyd and Pike Counties…and I’m betting that will go even further to the south. I just pray it isn’t ice for anyone! Snow, heck yes…ice…I’m like Rolo…definitely NO!
A GREAT tip for those worried about electric going off..some probably already know about it, but I’ll throw it out there anyways!!:)
Go buy some of those battery powered “touch-lights”, and hang a couple up in each room-one near the light switch, another against the far wall, etc…we got ours a couple yrs. ago in the “dollar aisle’ @ Save-a-Lot, but Dollar Tree also has them. They put out good light, and much less dangerous than candles or kerosene lamps (which is what I’ll be using because dummy here left batt’s in the lights and they burst..lol..and I couldn’t find anymore this morning when we went to both places-Walgreens has them, but I’m not up for $3.00+ apiece..:(
Folks, AFter looking at the models this could be a disaster to us in central Kentucky. This may be a storm that we have never seen. If the qpf is correct on the amount of moisture then we are in for it!! The news media better be acting fast to worn people as soon as we find out what this monster is going to do.
Morgan co is now under Winter Storm Watch…..
Another weather website, (not the NWS) that I will not mention by name, has this low going right through Louisville, bringing a lot of rain to most of the state. This is in stark contrast to the forecasts here.
Now I’m really scratchin my head.
Way everyones talking, could this be the once a decade storm?
Oh, and if the NWS is seriously convinced this is going to happen, someone needs to go to the forecasters at this website and e-mail them or do something. The implications of a possible ice storm are extremely serious, and do not need to be overlooked under any circumstance. I find ice storms to be just as dangerous if not more dangerous than the “PDS –Particularly Dangerous Situation” severe weather watches the SPC issues during tornadic events.
Perhaps Joe Bastardi or someone over there could give this website a bit of a clue-in here. There’s the big hint as to who’s up to this.
I seriously don’t want them left out of the loop–even if the majority of people getting their weather info living in the affected regions don’t get it from their particular website.
That is all.
=Aaron=
You all have my attention! ICE! I HATE IT!!! When you guys mention the totals and that it will be a major event, how many inches of snow and ice are you seeing?
Oh, something I’ve been wondering. Has anyone heard from Bubba? I wonder what his take is on this potential? It was always so much fun on the old blog to see you guys debate the forecasts. 🙂 It seems he is about the only one not here, right?
Can’t wait for the next update from Chris! Stay safe, everyone! Talk about a Winter Wonderland just in time for Christmas!
Once in a decade winter storm? Are you guys cereal? I’m pumped!
Derrick, what kind of cereal? Hope we get snow but keep the ice away.
I really hope the ice doesn’t hit here. Snow I can handle but not the ice. Can’t wait for an update from Chris.
Yea…where is Bubba-anybody know???
It is so good to track the winter strom with you all. I read Chris’s blog when he was at WKYT. So when he left I thiught oh no there goes the blog what will we do!! So I am glad I have found this site.
Or this:
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?map.x=81&map.y=32&site=bis
O.K., ALOT of bad stuff coming the next day or so. The NWS has issued a Winter Storm Watch for most of the state.
WHY IN THE WORLD doesn’t the local TV stations have that little bit of information up on their screens???????
Western Kentucky now under a Winter Storm Warning for tomorrow – Tuesday!
Western Ky. has been upgraded to a winter storm warning. It said they could get up to 3/4 inch ice. I hope people get prepared for this. I was telling some people from church today what we may be in for and they were like “yea right, it’s almost 60 deg. out.”
the tv stations up here have not had a clued on this thing which worries me!
Not sure if this is wind-related, but could be: Thousands without power in Knott County, hundreds out in Breathitt, Perry counties:
http://www.aepcustomer.com/outagemap/main.aspx?region=kentucky
They don’t put the info up till the watch or warning goes into effect.The Winter Storm Watch for the Lexington area doesn’t go into effect until Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.
My other half says that all the time…it’s like pulling a wild boar’s teeth, too, trying to get him to even pay attention to ANY weather watches/warning..that is, until he’s hiding from the funnel clouds and/or shoveling the snow…lol!:)
Megan, You ask about Carter County. We are often left out in the cold, no pun intended, when it comes to the NWS. We are under the Charleston branch and I think they are the worst to get out warnings and watches for us. If you wnat an idea just punch in Morehead’s zip and see what’s going on there (40351) They are under a different center, but there are times their advisories are slacking to. Often times waht happens in morehead is what happens here. They do already have watches out for them.
I am supposed to go from Lex to Bowling Green for a 11:30am (Eastern) meeting Monday that will last about an hour. Mitch, Chris…anyone? Should I punt?
3/4 of an inch of ice? That would hurt. To put things in perspective, we had over an inch of ice here in Lex in 2003. Hopefully this may be more like the 1994 ice storm. It was bad, but nothing like 2003.
18Z run of both GFS and NAM still are going too warm for any frozen precip. at the surface except for a few hours Tuesday morning. Hmmm.. I don’t know guys…this is going to be a close call here.
A telling forcast: NWS does have WS watch for this county yet in their forcast it says little or no accumulations…..Cant have it both ways.
Well feederband, in 1994 Southcentral an Southeastern KY had what Lex had in 1994. 2003 here was bad, but nothing like 1994.
I don’t know what will happen here, but to the west, this front sure means business: my grandparents live in Hays, Kansas, and yesterday, the temperature was pushing 70 at this time, now 24 hours later, the temperature is rapidly heading toward 0!!! There has been a 70 degree drop in 24 hrs.!
Meanwhile in the eastern part of Kansas, the temperature has dropped from 68 at 1pm to 28 at 4pm!!! That is nothing short of amazing!
This must be the big one Chris was talking about. Similiar to the Thanksgiving Storm of 1950. I am beginning to worry.
I just did some checking in Missouri. Within a span of only 21.7nm the temp goes from 58 to 34.
Wxman….do weather models take into consideration the actual surface temp, artic front and precip type? Chris mentions in this post that temps at 32* or below are going to be hard for the models to scour out and they are likely a tad to warm and to fast in trying to take the late day temps above freezing.
The leading edge of that cold air is about 75 miles nw of Saint Louis moving our way.
18z Nam surface temps are below 32 for mon night about 03Z through most of tuesday till 21Z for lex and even 00z tue eve for cvg. gfs surface temps are below 32 from 00z mon night to 18z tue pm.
I just wanted to thank all of you for your word and prayers and to let you know Slyvester has passed away.I was holding one paw while Jesus took the other i love all you all.
18z models did go a littel lower w/ qpf however hpc has .5-1 qpf for this event across most of the region.
Just to let you know Slyvester passed thanks for all your prayers i love you all
Just to let you know Slyvester has passed
What does that mean? Is qpf how much precipitation will fall?
Why would they wait until it actually goes into effect?
I noticed WYMT has it up.
i hope this does not double post thanks for all your prayers slyvester has passed
Everyone…..Crystal has emailed me and wants me to say her beloved cat SLYVESTER has passed. As you all know he has been ill the past couple of weeks. Crystal was there holding him when he left this life. Understandably Crystal is very, very upset! She asked for you to keep her in your prayers and thanks everyone for their kind words.
Time for a little Model break down and analysis.
I submit for your view pleasure, Yesterday’s 12z run of the GFS for 18Z Sunday.
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/GFS/previous/gfsUS_2_temp_30.gif
Now let’s take a look at today’s 12z run of the GFS for 18Z Sunday
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/GFS/gfsUS_2_temp_6.gif
Notice they are roughly about the same and have the freezing line right along the South Dakota, Nebraska boarder. Both have the Low, centered on the boarder of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa.
Here is the 18z temperatures from today, actual recorded.
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/081214231056.gif“>http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/081214231056.gif
Notice the actual 0 degree line is about 100 miles farther south than GFS forecasted it to be. Also notice the freezing line is actually in line fairly well with the 12z GFS today, as it should be seeing that run gets fresh data put into with upper air soundings. Moral of the story IMO, GFS has a decent idea what’s going on about 6 hours before it actually happens and has underestimated the strength of the cold air behind the front.
Now let’s look at the NAM. 12z run yesterday for 18z today.
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ETA/previous/etaUS_2_temp_30.gif
12z run today for 18z today.
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ETA/etaUS_2_temp_6.gif
And once again, 18z temps actual.
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/081214231056.gif“>http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/081214231056.gif
The NAM got how far the cold air was going to go south right 30 hours out, but underestimated how far east it would push.
So lesson learned from the NAM, it has temps close to accurate but at least in the case, not far enough to the east 30 hours out.
Right now, my gut tells me to stick with the 12z and 0z NAM runs, and for past its range work with the GFS knowing, it’s going to probably bust the end of your 7-day.
yes, qpf is how precip will fall.
.1 qpf= 1 inch snow or sleet or .1 inch ice or .1 inch rain
tonite music,
something to believe in by posion.
Are we all in moderation? This is a test.
Crystal emailed me and wanted me to tell everyone her beloved cat Slyvester has passed. She is understadably very upset and needs your prayers. She is in moderarion again and would have posted herself. She thanks all those who have shown sympathy.
That, my friend’s. Very good break down on what is coming.
It’s going to be a LONG WEEK ahead.
Back to the Boxing Match. (Pitt vs. Balt)
No just the bad people
What’s everybody thinking now?
Thanks!
I’m Back!! I’ve been getting ready for the big BBQ and pool party Andy is throwing this week since its gonna be so warm down here..Ice storm? What ice storm???…:)
hays is out on the high plains on i-70 i took that route towards rockies once, beautiful countryside
this storm looks to truly explode on a line from west tennessee into central ky, some very heavy precip is going to fall the more ice the less powpow the more powpow the less ice, tommorow night i have finals at 5pm i hope it gets cancelled and i keep my mediocore biology grade i am not ready for this final to much time looking at models not enough time focusing on evolution lol.
Here’s what I don’t understand, the front moves through, temps drop dramatically, only to warm back up the next day? What is up with that? That’s what the NWS says….monday night/tues to mid day could be ice, but warm up tuesday to change to all rain?
marklex there are alot of factors that go into storms other than cold air, i am not sure any models have a good handle on time beyond a two or three day period, lets just stay tuned to CB!!!
So we will probably see the winter storm watch downgraded to a freezing rain advisory basically… should find out soon.
wxman where do you get that info? models just are not used to 40 degree temp drops in an hour when folks are caught of guard thats unfortunate. anyone catch severe weather potential later this week? central ky should see atleast 1/5” ice accumulation before the chilly rain sets in
Mark.. our coldest daytime high down here in southern ky. this week is just suppose to be 50, suppose to be in the 50’s and 60’s until the end of the week according to NWS. So accordingly the artic front never even makes it this far south,so Central ky. will be on the line where it fluctuates back and forth kind of like waves or ripples on the water.
……………….
So if you all get left in the dark due to power outages from ice, or are just simply tired of all the salt on the roads and your cars…ANDY’S is the place to be. BBQ, warm temps. flip-flops maybe a good cold drink of your preference. so if your tired of all the northern MUCK…the south is the place to be this week…LOL…(sounds like a good commercial now don’t it)..
How ’bout them Steelers…!
Man, my heart can’t take too many more of these games… whew….
Any changes in the weather..?
…
I doubt it. even on the 18z models many areas had over .25 qpf with temps below 32. the 00z models with the new imput of data should tell us more.
vinny u ever heard of destiny, lol
I tell ya, the steelers have heart and guts. to win from behind late in 4th 2 weeks in row is something.
this next game is interesting to watch, I GOT MY POPCORN READY. LOL
no money on it, just watching.
hit that hornets game I posted pretty hard today.
mitch this storm is going to be at its worst from west tn into central ky, woud you not agree, qfp is explosive in this zone, surface temps in the 20s i’ll let the rest speak for itself
Tonight’s game…?
i have no idea who will win, but i know I always root against the ‘boys..!
Steelers D is off the charts..! ravens, 202 total yards… wooo hooo…..
Mitch, WXman, Tommy, Neil…. any weather updates..?
…
Hmm! Reason to worry in EKY?
Rather have rain than Ice …. I enjoyed the 2.5 inches we got in Corbin last week.
Yeah… any reason to worry in North-eastern Kentucky… say around Carter County? Thanks
I found a link to the snowfall accums maps. If you want the nam models just change the gfs to nam in the address.
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/
It looks like the models have changed again this time with gfs showing hardly anything for Kentucky and the nam a few inches.
Any thoughts? Is this model run more accurate because it is recent?
Hi Marsha
Crystal I am so sorry I wish you could be there with you not just telling you this through words that we type.
my call for ky
bowling green to ashland west to ohio river counties: 1-6” snow 1/4”-3/4” freezing rain. areas such as lexington and cynthiana and e-town will see mainly icing with half an inch likely and an inch or less of sleet and snow. further north west into boone, kenton, and cambell counties and areas such as carrolton and owensboro may see lighter ice amounts such .1-.2” but snow accumulations of 3-5 inches
second area is from albany towards pikeville significant icing is possible but amounts should stay under 1/3”, no snow or sleet accumulation.
south and east from here corbin somerset and hazard should mainly see a chilly rain.
i think the biggest thing to keep in mind is how far south and east the cold may truly push, the 32 surface line may go below the tn/ky line…i know no models show that but still this airmass is not to be underestimated and some places across ky are going to be disaster areas tuesday AM, again would not surprise me to see the freezing line to really tank south east further than surface charts show look out to our west, i have follwed weather since i was 11 and have INTENSELY MONITORED WINTER WEAther events but never have i seen a front that had so much punch, it needs to be drug tested fronts this early in the season are not supposed to be this powerful, its like in the little league world series when a “13 yr old” guy comes to the plate and is 6’2” with jeremiah johnson beard lol
yes some thoughts, forget models and look to our west temps are falling faster than congress approval ratings
Temps falling faster than congressional approval ratings? Hilarious! 🙂
If that’s true we are all gonna have one heck of a blizzard!
Thanks for answering my question though.
We just need to get Al Gore to speak here. Has anyone noticed that where ever he goes, it snows?
I’m so sorry, crystal, but remember-he’s no longer hurting, and he’ll always be with you in spirit!
HE is on the equator telling everyone that its warm out lol
Al-baby is hiding out and staying low, since the snowstorm in NEW ORLEANS..LOL…snow-new orleans and global warming dont mix so he’s staying outta the spot light for a while…lol.
Thanks T_Lex.
HMMM, I have finals tomorrow over in Corbin. I wonder if I will be trekking over the falls road in the morning? Anyone think McCreary/whitley will get hit and what time?
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