Good evening, gang. We are in the middle of a gorgeous weekend across the bluegrass state. A seasonal chill is in the air as skies stay clear through Sunday. All of that changes early next week as a powerful storm system impacts our region. That will likely unleash a pattern that looks a lot like winter as we head into Thanksgiving week.
I have no changes on the evolution of the first storm system heading our way. The initial rains come our way late Monday into early Tuesday. After a breezy and mild break in the action Tuesday afternoon, heavy rain and thunderstorms sweep in Tuesday night and Wednesday. Heavy rainfall is a good bet during this time.
Once this storm goes by, we see things starting to really change up. It’s an overall pattern change across North America that’s coming from blocking across the eastern Pacific. That’s something we have seen a lot of since the fall of 2013. To me, it was the driving force that led to our back to back brutal winters here in Kentucky. That doesn’t mean we can expect the same this winter per say, but it’s trying to flex some early season muscle.
As that blocking gets established, the pattern across the United States trends colder and, likely, much colder. The first system to watch for will be a cold front next weekend. That front crosses the region and several models have been showing a low pressure developing along it or just to our southeast. The latest GFS has this…
And the air coming behind that is COLD…
That cold takes us through Thanksgiving week into the holiday weekend. If anything, it may try to trend colder…
It’s not just the operational forecast models showing the cold. The GFS Ensembles 5 day mean temperature anomalies for Thanksgiving week show a cold country…
Again… that’s a 5 day average of several different model runs. That’s a cold look.
I’m very confident we’re going to turn much colder as we roll into Thanksgiving week. Can we actually get some snow out of that pattern? It’s certainly possible and I do think the first flakes fly before we leave November behind.
I really didn’t mean to write this much, but that shows you I like what I’m seeing. 😉
Another update comes your way later tonight. Enjoy the evening and take care.
Might as well write that much… It’s better than watching UK football (speaking of turning really cold!)
They are absolutely terrible
Gfs Model
twhen are you doing your Winter Outlook
Pattern looking good after next week for wintery weather…need some precip soon in far Eastern KY before forest fires get any worse than what is already happening.